The Miami Dolphins are in a very precarious situation right now. Every single year, the team’s offense starts off blistering hot, with Tua Tagovailoa and Co. putting up boatloads of points and stats. However, that red-hot offense declined dramatically as the season went on, and the production dissipated significantly for everyone involved.
Whether it is Tua Tagovailoa’s health or Mike McDaniel’s lackluster play calling down the stretch, something always seems to go wrong for the Dolphins in the second half of the season every year. So, due to this fall in production, it begs the question: how valuable are the Miami Dolphins’ skill players for fantasy football right now, specifically in dynasty leagues going forward?
To me, one player in particular on this offense sticks out immediately as the best bet to make going forward, value-wise. That player is Jaylen Waddle. You will have to pay immensely for De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill is aging but still being propped up by name value alone, and Jonnu Smith is maybe just a one-hit wonder in terms of top-end fantasy production. So, in my opinion, Waddle is currently the best value on the board in this Miami offense. I am here today to explain why Jaylen Waddle is the player you want to own in dynasty leagues right now and detail why I think the talented wide receiver is the best bet to make in this Miami Dolphins offense for dynasty purposes going forward, value-wise at least.
To understand why Jaylen Waddle is a must-have in dynasty leagues right now, we must first explore Miami’s other offensive weapons outside of Waddle.
We will start with Tyreek Hill. In 2022 and 2023, Tyreek Hill totaled over 1,700 yards in each season, respectively, cementing himself as arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver at the time over those two years. However, in 2024, Hill totaled just 959 receiving yards. The production fell off a cliff. Hill’s dip in production goes beyond just these basic numbers as well. In 2023, the talented wide receiver averaged 10.5 targets per game, but in 2024, this number fell to 7.0 targets per game. That is a significant drop for such a talented receiver as Hill. These concerning numbers show that Tyreek Hill was not getting open nearly enough for the quarterback last year compared to just a couple of years ago. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Tyreek Hill ranked 31st out of a possible 100 wide receivers, which is still the top half of the league but not a number that you would expect from a receiver that carries the pedigree of Hill. Between his age, the offseason wrist surgeries, and these concerning metrics that I have laid out, Tyreek Hill is not a player that you should be looking to keep around beyond this year if that.
Jonnu Smith is another player that was a huge piece of this Miami Dolphins offense last year. In 2024, Jonnu Smith totaled 88 receptions, 884 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Smith’s aDOT was also only 4.9 last year, so the veteran tight end got a lot of cheap and easy yards when the team needed it most. Jonnu Smith was a player who only got better fantasy-wise as the season went on last year. In weeks 1-9, the talented tight end averaged just 8.3 fantasy points per game. However, in weeks 10-18, that number shot all the way up to 17.5 fantasy points per game. Tyreek Hill’s downfall resulted in Jonnu Smith’s spike in production, which was obviously great for fantasy managers everywhere. There are currently rumors floating around that Pittsburgh has called Miami to inquire about a possible Jonnu Smith trade, as Smith is seeking a new contract currently. If a trade does indeed happen here and this does come to fruition, then this will obviously open up a lot more targets for Jaylen Waddle in this offense. But even if Jonnu Smith does eventually get a new contract from Miami and is back with the Dolphins in 2025, that still would not be the worst thing in the world for Waddle if you ask me, because I am personally a bit skeptical that Jonnu Smith will repeat his high-level production from last year in 2025.
Moving on to one of the most explosive and electric running backs in the league, we will now talk about De’Von Achane. In 2024, Achane rushed for 907 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 4.47 yards per carry. These are great counting stats on paper, but a concerning number that sticks out to me is the fact that Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins gave Achane 203 rushing attempts last year, which is a lot for a running back with such a small frame. This puts the talented young running back’s staying power in the league in question if you ask me. De’Von Achane is obviously a very explosive and talented back, but this volume is most likely not sustainable going forward. That being said, where De’Von Achane excels the most is in the receiving game. In 2024, he racked up 78 receptions, 592 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns. Achane carried an aDOT of -0.5 last year, which means that he got a ton of dump-offs from the quarterback that led to a lot of easy fantasy points. As for 2025 and beyond, I get that Achane will likely continue to be a big part of this offense in the receiving game, but Mike McDaniel will likely be fighting for his job this season, so what if he decides to open up the offense and go back to featuring the wide receivers more, specifically Jaylen Waddle? If Mike McDaniel wants to save his job going forward, he will absolutely have to scheme up more downfield passing plays for Tua Tagovailoa, which will mean fewer dump-offs for De’Von Achane and more big and explosive plays for Jaylen Waddle.
Now that we have discussed Miami’s offensive weapons outside of Jaylen Waddle, we will explore Waddle himself and lay out why he is a must-have in dynasty leagues right now.
If you look at the numbers, Jaylen Waddle has had a very good career in the NFL thus far through four years, with last year being a down year for the talented young receiver from a fantasy perspective. From 2021-2023, Jaylen Waddle put up over 1,000 yards in each season while averaging at least 14.2 fantasy points per game over the span of each season as well. However, in 2024, these numbers fell to 744 yards and 10.0 fantasy points per game. While these numbers from last season are concerning, there are some metrics out there that support a Jaylen Waddle bounce back in 2025 and beyond. Last season, Waddle lined up out wide about 72% of the time and lined up in the slot about 28% of the time. I bring these splits up because I personally believe that Jaylen Waddle could benefit greatly from the Dolphins getting more creative with his usage and alignment on the field this season. If Mike McDaniel is going to be fighting for his job in 2025, this is something that will have to happen. Also, as I mentioned earlier, if McDaniel decides to open up the playbook this year in order to remain the head coach of the Miami Dolphins, that will result in more downfield usage and explosive play opportunities for Jaylen Waddle. All of that being said, there is one big elephant in the room that we must talk about, and that is the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa obviously has a very concerning concussion history in the NFL, but right now, he is healthy. Injuries are not something that we can predict year over year for fantasy football, so we will cross that bridge if/when we get there. Right now, we are good to go. One last point on Waddle before we end this discussion for today. He will more than likely be the WR1 for this team in 2026 and many years beyond that, as I am about 99% sure that 2025 will be Tyreek Hill’s last season with the Miami Dolphins, no matter how well the veteran receiver performs. So, if it were me, I would go out and get on the Jaylen Waddle hype train right now in your dynasty leagues before his value absolutely explodes after this year, and it becomes near impossible to trade for him.
