My 2025 Fantasy Football Trends for Week 16 article has arrived just in time to help you in your matchups this week and in the future!
After last week’s chaos with several 40+ PPR point performances, including Kyle Pitts, who knows what this week will hold for us. What should be clear to us is that it’s time to take some risks and aim for upside. Hopefully, these data points will help with that last-minute decision-making. Let’s get these teams to the final!
Michael Carter’s 78% running back rush share
It’s been a revolving door of running backs in Arizona this year, with repeated injury issues. Now with Zonovan Knight on IR, it’s down to Michael Carter and Emari Demarcado. And based on last week’s usage, it’s Carter whom we should have the most confidence in. Carter handled 14 of the Cardinals’ backfield rushing attempts for 56 yards, equating to a 78% rushing share. Demercado, on the other hand, only handled two.
Although Carter hasn’t necessarily been the most efficient running back with his touches, he has given fantasy managers a safe floor, with 24 targets across his last five games. On Wednesday, head coach Jonathan Gannon stated he was “very comfortable” with Carter as the team’s lead back. He should provide some fantasy managers with a solid option again this weekend in a good matchup against the Falcons. And next week? The Bengals.
Ashton Jeanty’s 32 rushing yards per game since week 12
If you’ve made it to the latter stages of the fantasy playoffs with Jeanty, firstly, well done, and secondly, it may be time to question whether you need higher upside options. The rookie’s fantasy performance hasn’t been bad, but it has indeed frustrating given the draft cost. The issues with the offense have stymied his ceiling, particularly in the latter half of the season. Before the team’s week 8 bye, Jeanty averaged 63.6 rushing yards per game, a number he has not reached since. Production has cratered in recent weeks, rushing for just 32 yards per game over the last three outings.
We’re now at the crucial point of the season where upside will win, rather than making safe decisions. Some of last week’s scores are a testament to that. While Jeanty offers a safe floor, particularly in PPR formats, given his 6.3 targets per game since the bye, I’m worried about his upside against a stout Texans defense.
Jayden Reed’s 16.7% target share
The Packers’ wide receiver room is an incredibly frustrating thing for fantasy managers. Trying to predict consistent production is challenging with multiple pass catchers, but Jayden Reed’s usage remains worth monitoring closely. Immediately upon returning from injury, Reed has been utilized in the offense. Over the last two weeks, Reed has seen ten targets, including six last week. This was the joint-highest on the team, alongside Musgrave, and represented a 16.7% target share.
These numbers aren’t eye-popping, but given Reed’s high upside, there’s a clear appeal for fantasy managers. Through manufactured touches, both on the ground and through the air, Reed has demonstrated his ability to generate significant yards after the catch since being drafted. There’s a clear risk, but Reed should be firmly back in flex consideration this weekend, particularly for managers searching for upside.
Stefon Diggs’ 24 yards per game since week 12
After a slow start, Diggs started to show his prowess over the middle part of the season. The veteran was the WR6 in PPR scoring between weeks 4 through 11, per Fantasy Points data, with 46 receptions for 547 yards and three touchdowns. This represented 14.8 PPR points per game, a healthy return for those of us who drafted him in the middle rounds. In the last three outings, however, Diggs has failed to reach 30 yards in a game, posting just 11 targets for eight receptions for 72 yards.
With the Patriots leaning more heavily on the run, there is too much risk for me to start a player with Diggs’ volatility in the fantasy semi-finals.
Kenneth Gainwell’s 52% running back rush share
Gainwell has had a resurgent year in Pittsburgh and enjoyed another stellar performance in week 15. The fifth-year back rushed 13 times for 80 yards, just edging out Jaylen Warren on the ground. This marks just the third time this season in which Gainwell has seen double-digit carries. It’s a nice bonus to his consistent usage in the passing game. Gainwell reeled in all seven of his targets for 46 yards, meaning he has now averaged 5.6 targets per game since week 9.
It has been incredibly encouraging for fantasy managers to see the clear role Gainwell holds in passing situations in the offense, providing a reliable PPR floor. It’s likely to be a negative game script this week against the Lions, meaning Gainwell should continue to provide good value for fantasy through the air.
Thanks for diving into some of the 2025 Fantasy Football Trends for Week 16!
For more insight into more fantasy football trends in the future this season, make sure to click here! You can follow me on Twitter/X at @JKlonowskiNFL. Feel free to reach out and ask for fantasy football advice anytime. Until next time!
