Linebackers are the cornerstone of IDP teams, with an elite one keeping a team competitive through thick and thin! When a productive LB switches teams in free agency, the hope is that they can continue or even improve that production. Former Colt E.J. Speed landed in an already crowded Texan room, which muddles his outlook.
Welcome to the next installment of the 2025 IDP Dynasty Risers/Fallers series! This installment outlines the new Houston Texan, 2025 IDP Dynasty Faller: E.J. Speed. You can view the rest of the series here, where our team dives into a plethora of fascinating profiles! For my risers and fallers, I will provide background on what the player has done, outline underlying metrics and analytics (with some comparisons where applicable), discuss the competition and situation in their position group, and wrap up with what they could be in 2025 and beyond.
A note on metrics and statistics: fantasy finishes (I will use PPG for historical finishes) and current rankings are pulled from the FantasyPros and fantasydata databases, while advanced stats such as Pass-rush-win-rate (PRWR) and Average Depth of Tackle (AVDT) are taken from PFF’s database.
Background:
Speed was a late-round dart throw by the Colts in 2019, who started as a special-teams ace. In the back half of 2023, he got a chance to play and made the most of it. Speed totalled 189 tackles over that span (19 games, just under 10/game). Amongst all off-ball LBs that played 9+ games, Speed was LB12 in 2024. He did this while being the clear LB2 behind Zaire Franklin, giving hope that he can produce in many situations. After a career year, we hoped he would cash in with an LB-needy team. However, he signed with Houston on a one-year deal, putting his future outlook in flux. Why did Speed get forgotten in Free Agency like a post-blip Sharon Carter? Let’s see if the analytics shed any light.
Analytics:
Well… it seems they do. With a basic PFF grade check, Speed did not perform well in his sole season as a starter. Amongst 120 qualifying LBs, Speed finished 89th or worse in total defense, tackling, pass rush, and coverage while finishing just outside of the top-40 in run defense. Diving deeper reveals run-defense prowess, finishing top-32 in stop% and AVDT. In coverage, only 29 LBs allowed a higher completion % and only five allowed more YAC. The missed tackles are what hurt him most. His 26 missed tackles led the league. To put this into perspective, nine total players missed 20+ tackles. All of them played between 17 and 20 games, save one… Speed with 15. On-field skill is not always a direct indicator of fantasy success, especially at LB. Missed tackles are the LB equivalent to RB fumbles. If you are benched, you cannot score fantasy points.
Competition:
With Speed’s success as an LB2, we did not need him to land as a clear team LB1. However, he is not a clear LB2 or even LB3 with this landing spot. Azeez Al-Shaair is the green-dot and LB1 (as long as he is not suspended), and there is more talent in the room. Christian Harris has been a favorite sleeper/project of mine for years and has flashed often. Henry To’oTo’o has also taken large snap counts when others have missed time and/or underperformed. To’oTo’o is not a massive threat in my mind, as he is a poor athlete and a decent player, but he knows the scheme and is steady. Harris has been streaky, but few have developed raw athletes at the position like DeMeco Ryans (see: Dre Greenlaw and Al-Shaair himself). If Harris can right the ship after an injury-riddled 2024, Speed’s playing time will be in poo-doo.
Dynasty Outlook:
E.J. Speed’s metrics and the new situation are an incredible letdown following an electric 2024. The combination of with his age (30) makes him an easy faller. However, unlike many fallers (looking at you, Quay Walker), the price has adjusted. He is ranked at the bottom of tier 8, 86th overall (closer to 60th for off-ball LBs). That price is worth a dart throw, but if you thought you could capitalize on a big 2024… you were wrong. Speed may still have some value in 2025, but there are many hurdles to get there. Dynasty-wise, we should be able to tell his 2026 value very soon. Losing out to Harris and/or To’oTo’o out of camp would more than likely tank any future value.
