2025 IDP Dynasty Riser: Chop Robinson
The Dolphins’ 2024 first-round pick was one of the more controversial prospects in the class. Robinson was a certified freak with little production – like so many Penn State products – so what were we to make of him? 2024 still had a lackluster production, but a dive into the underlying metrics makes him a potential breakout.
Welcome to the next installment of the 2025 IDP Dynasty Risers/Fallers series! This installment surrounds one of my guys, the Dolphins’ EDGE Chop Robinson. You can view the rest of the series here; where we our team dives into a plethora of fascinating profiles! For my risers and fallers; I will give background on what the player has done, outline underlying metrics and analytics (with some comparisons where due), discuss the competition/situation in their position group, and wrap up with what they could be in 2025 and beyond!
A note on metrics and statistics: fantasy finishes (I will use PPG for historical finishes) and current rankings are pulled from the FantasyPros and fantasydata databases, while advanced stats such as Pass-rush-win-rate (PRWR) and pass-rush-productivity (PRP) are taken from PFF’s database.
Background:
Let’s start with the basics: what did Chop Robinson do in 2024? After going in the top 24, Robinson had a subpar fantasy season, finishing as the DL111. His six sacks were a top-50 mark, but his status as a DPR (designated pass-rusher) lowered his fantasy floor. Robinson entered the draft – controversially – as my EDGE1 due to a freakish profile and electric first step. His RAS of 9.72 indicates an explosive movement, which he converts into power effectively. The biggest downside of his profile is his run defense. He was not used against the run often, leading to an Anzellan-sized 26 total tackles.
Analytics:
If Robinson was not even a top-100 DL in 2024 with just over 50% of snaps played, why should we be excited? Great question! Let’s dive into the underlying metrics to see. Amongst all EDGE players with at least 65 rush snaps (10% of the league leader; 147 total) only SEVEN had a higher PRP or PRWR than Robinson. Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, Aidan Hutchinson, and Trey Hendrickson are the only players to have been rated higher than Robinson in both. Numbers like these will lead to more production in the future, putting him in the upper-level plays. Robinson needs to improve against the run to reach a Brian Burns or Will Anderson level. He finished 2024 with an ugly 55.4 run-defense grade while only making a stop on 3% of his rush defense snaps (though his average depth of stop was spectacular).
Competition:
For Robinson to take the next step(s), he needs to see the field more. 53.2% of snaps as a DPR is not enough for him to be an upper-echelon IDP play. Conveniently, there is not a large amount of competition in the room. Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb remain on the roster, but are both coming off of severe injuries. Neither has proven they can stay healthy for a full season, opening the door for the former first-round pick to see a plurality of snaps. A second season in Anthony Weaver’s scheme will be good for Robinson, who will learn more and be utilized more by the next Raven-pipeline-superstar. Robinson’s pass-rush metrics outweigh his struggles against the run (where he does show effort, which is a surprising yet massive plus). He has enough strength and instinct to be passable against the run with more reps.
Dynasty Outlook:
Robinson’s outlook is moreso based on projection and underlying metrics than fantasy statistics. This makes him a risky proposition – unlike fellow youngsters Will Anderson and Jared Verse, who have both. The lack of proven fantasy production chops him (hehe) from the top-2 tiers of EDGE players; however, he should be considered a tier-3 upside swing. I have a weakness for (most) Penn State prospects, especially freaky EDGE threats (looking at you, Odafe Oweh!). Robinson ranks higher for me than most, landing in my 3rd tier, just inside my top-10 EDGEs. My tier 3 includes names like Abdul Carter, Brian Burns (my Chop comp), and aging vets Trey Hendrickson and Danielle Hunter, amongst others.