2025 IDP Plays & Fades for Week 13

Welcome to our 2025 IDP Plays & Fades for Week 13!

And now we are off, running down to the Ript-IDP! Let’s uncap our pens and discuss the fades and plays for Week 13! Turkey-week is here and we are on the doorstep of the playoffs. Time to win this final stretch and get some momentum on the path up Mount Olympus!

A MASSIVE thanks to the boss-man Jorge for taking over the past couple of weeks while I took a much needed vacation with the family! With this article, I have typically passed on Thursday Night matchups, however that cannot be the case this week! In fact, there will be at least one fade and play for each positional group from the Thanksgiving/Black Friday games! I hope you all have a fantastic start to the Holiday Season and are able to remember and keep at heart what truly matters (whatever that may be!). 

In this series, I will help point out some players who could surpass expectations or fall below them. We will hit 3 plays and 3 fades at each position (DL, LB, DB) from varying positions in weekly rankings. While they will not be forced, I will also try to add in a DT and a CB from their respective position groups. The goal for each group will be to have at least one high-level name and a lower-ranked player, ones who could rise tiers based on matchups or falter a bit due to “empty” statistics. Now it is time to saddle your mount (horse, pegasus, dragon, etc) and ride into the fires (seas?) of IDP week 13!

*Rankings and Fantasy point scoring will be based on FantasyPros IDP scoring, which can be found here.* 

**Base metrics are provided by FantasyData, and advanced metrics such as Pass Rush Productivity (PRP), Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR), and Average Depth of Tackle (AVDT) will be referenced via Pro Football Focus.** 

Defensive Linemen

Play: Zach Seiler, DT, Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints

• Seiler has struggled as of late, with only 5 total tackles in his last 3 games. He is still the top DT on the team, snap-wise and has flashed DT potential throughout the season. Miami has looked rejuvenated lately, which could see a boost to his numbers.
• A matchup with Tyler Shough and the Saints is also a big boost for the Dolphins’ DT. They have allowed the 3rd most points over the last month, including consecutive games with a top-6 opposing DT. This is a matchup to plug Sieler back in and expect DT1 production that we saw in 2024.

Play: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears (Black Friday)

• Phillips has been a dominant force for the Eagles since coming over from Miami. He has changed the defense; behind 4 tackles/game, a sack, and fumble recovered. He has graded as a top-15 EDGE in PRP and PRWR since coming over and is top-4 in total pressures. This has translated to top-24 EDGE scoring despite a goose last week.
• Chicago’s offensive line has improved lately, however they are still a top-10 EDGE matchup over the last month. They have allowed multiple top-15 performances in consecutive weeks, with 3 sacks to the position allowed. This defense is a different animal than what the Bears have faced lately, and Phillips should be a beneficiary.

Play: Odafe Oweh, EDGE, Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

• Oweh has been great for the Chargers since his trade between the Harbaugh brothers. He has averaged only 3 tackles/game, but has been a force as a pass rusher. Since coming over in week 6, Oweh has had rush metrics similar to Byron Young while adding 4 sacks. 
• This is a great matchup for a DPR (Designated Pass Rusher), as Geno Smith has taken 20 sacks over the last 3 games. The offensive line has been atrocious, allowing the 2nd most points to opposing EDGE players over the last month. It is hard to start a DPR most weeks, but this is a swing for the fences if you are fighting injuries.

Fade: Travis Jones, DT, Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals (Thanksgiving Night)

• Jones has had a strong back part of the season, with 4 tackles per game over the past 4 weeks. He has been a top-10 DT over that stretch while adding in 1.5 sacks. His overall metrics do not track with him being a top-10 DT, though they have still been solid. 
• Cincinnati has had a tumultuous season, but they have excelled at giving opposing DTs trouble. Over the course of the season, they have been the second-worst matchup across the league. Only 2 DTs have finished with a top-12 week against the Bengals and none since week 7. Jones has been very good, but this matchup is not the one to expect the hot streak to continue. 

Fade: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles (Black Friday)

• We are playing an opposing former-deadline-acquired EDGE in this game, but now fade one in Sweat. Sweat has had a great last month, with 4.5 sacks and being an EDGE1 (including 2nd overall last week). The overall metrics are not as kind to Sweat, landing closer to Rashaan Gary than Will Anderson. Sweat can feast on bad OLs with those metrics and his talent, but this is not that matchup.
• Even while banged up, Philadelphia’s OL is an absolute wagon. They have been the 2nd worst matchup for opposing EDGE players over the last month, including shutting down superstars like Aidan Hutchinson and Micah Parsons. Sweat can still be played off the hot streak, but this is not a matchup where we should expect continued EDGE1 stats.

Fade: Byron Young, EDGE, Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Rams

• Young was a dominant IDP force over the season’s first two months, but has fallen off as of late. He has tallied zero sacks in the last 4 games, despite continued solid metrics. Offenses have shifted more attention to Young, who has allowed his teammates to put up higher IDP totals, a trend which may continue against the Panthers.
• Carolina has been a tough matchup for EDGE players, allowing bottom-5 totals in the past month. They have allowed only 2 sacks to the position in that span, and their run game does not allow many tackles to the position either. Young faces an uphill battle to put up numbers, with a good OL on the other side. You probably cannot bench him, but he expects to struggle in the box score again. 

Linebackers

Play: Demarion Overshown, Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs (Thanksgiving Afternoon)

• We are riding a hot matchup here, after Kansas City allowed the top-2 LB performances last week. Germaine Pratt & Zaire Franklin combined for 34 tackles as the Chiefs got back on track, beating the Colts. They have been hit or miss as an LB matchup, but have allowed some very high hits.
• Overshown appears to be the leader of the Cowboys LB room, or at least has the highest ceiling. In two games back, he has played the most LB snaps as he knocks the rust off post-injury. He is a deep shot, with unsure playing time but the recent matchup and tackle+pass rush upside make him a sneaky play.

Play: Lavonte David, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals

• The Hall-of-Fame hopeful has not had the greatest season, as a borderline LB2 with 7 tackles/game. However, he still has been solid against the run and been slightly better as of late. He is still the top LB for Tampa and will see pretty much every snap. 
• This is a great matchup for David, as Arizona has allowed more points than any other team to the position over the past month. The Cardinals have allowed multiple top-18 picks in 3 consecutive matchups as Jacoby Brissett has taken over at QB. Arizona has leaned on the run and a high-efficiency passing attack that has allowed LBs to stack up numbers, which should continue for the Bucs’ captain this week.

Play: Cody Simon, Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• For our final LB play, we head to the other side of the matchup. Simon has taken over the LB1 role with Mack Wilson injured, leading the room in snaps for 3 consecutive weeks. In that span, Simon has been a mid-level LB3, with 8 tackles/game. Those numbers are far from spectacular, but give hope that he can turn it up with a good matchup.
• Tampa Bay is the matchup needed to boost Simon’s numbers. The Buccaneers have been a top-3 matchup for LBs over the past month and may improve now with Baker Mayfield injured and Bucky Irving on his way back. They have allowed 5 LBs to be an LB2 or better in their last 3 games, which would be great value for the new Cardinals’ LB1. Simon may not have a massive ceiling, but is a sneaky LB2 play off the wire. 

Fade: Nakobe Dean, Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears (Black Friday)

• Dean has been an IDP stud lately, being an LB1 over the last month. However, he has been boosted by a sack in 3 consecutive weeks, a stat that does not seem sustainable for an off-ball LB. He has only 26 tackles in 5 games this year, which gives Dean a low floor while in a timeshare. 
• Chicago has been a tough matchup for LBs as of late, giving up a few solid performances, but no elite ones over the past few months. Dean also faces an uphill battle with snap-share, as Zack Baun and Jihaad Campbell have been good this season. It is tough to sit Dean, but expecting a top-12 performance is reliant on unreliable big-plays. 

Fade: Eric Wilson, Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

• Seattle has been dominant on offense this year, which has translated to not allowing many IDP points to LBs. Over the past month, they have been a bottom-3 matchup, including keeping Bobby Wagner and Cedric Gray to middling totals recently. 
• When Seattle has allowed points to LBs, they have gone to the opponent’s top LB. That role seems to be Blake Cashman, who has averaged nearly 13.5 tackles/game over the last 5. Wilson still has played well (LB1 over the past month) and seen the majority of snaps, but the matchup gives major pause to his ability to continue that production. 

Fade: Demario Davis, New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins

• We have another “fade but do not bench” selection with the Saints’ longtime LB. Davis has struggled for IDP lately, not tallying more than 6 solo tackles since week 5. He has racked up a good number of assists, but is outside of the top-30 LBs over the past month. 
• Miami has turned it up lately, being a bottom-5 LB matchup over the past month. Bobby Wagner and Terrel Bernard had incredibly middling games in the last two games, which does not trend well for Davis. Big plays have been required by LBs to put up big numbers against Miami, and Davis has not been able to post those this season. Davis is still a decent bet for LB2/3 production, but his ceiling is not much higher. 

Defensive Backs

Play: Marlon Humphrey, CB, Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals (Thanksgiving Night)

• Over the last month, Humphrey has been a top-5 CB, with nearly 5 tackles/game and a handful of turnover plays. Even while moving to the outside, he has remained a strong tackling CB, giving him a great floor.
• The Bengals have been an incredible matchup for CBs with Joe Flacco under center, giving up more points than all but one team. Joe Burrow expects to be back, which does change the calculus, but still looks promising for Humphrey. Ja’Marr Chase returns from suspension and will see an insane volume of targets against Humphrey (especially with Tee Higgins out). Humphrey will get beat, but that only gives him tackle opportunities, and a CB1 hope. If Burrow is rusty and out-of-sync with Chase, INT opportunities will present themselves as well!

Play: Ji’Ayir Brown, S, San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns

• Brown has been a borderline S1 over the past month, capped off with a 2 INT game Monday night. He has averaged 6.5 tackles/game over that stretch, combining a high-ceiling with a high-floor. Even with the return of Malik Mustapha, Brown has had a large box/slot-role, giving him even more security for IDP leagues.
• The Browns have been a top-5 matchup for Safeties, especially those in the box/slot area. They have given up multiple top-12 weeks to opposing safeties, including with Shedeur Sanders taking over last week. Cleveland projects to be run heavy and has a young, mistake-prone QB who will give many opportunities for Brown to rack up tackles or big-plays. 

Play: Justin Reid, S, New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins

• The Dolphins have been a great matchup for Safeties, with a run & quick-pass heavy attack. They are one of the few teams allowing more points to Safeties than Cleveland, posting top-3 points allowed. Miami allowed multiple top-18 safety performances in 2 of their last 3 games, giving Reid a good chance for success.
• Reid has been on a heater, with a top-5 finish in two of his last three games. He has a high-floor, with a high-box role which has led to 5.5 tackles/game. The DB room’s leader struggled to start the year, but with the Saints’ overall struggles, they have faced more run-heavy schemes. Reid’s streak and the matchup give him a good chance at being an S1 again.

Fade: Jarrian Jones, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

• The Titans have been a surprisingly difficult matchup for CBs this season, especially the past month where they have surrendered fewer points than all but two teams. This may be due to the Titans’ non-existent WR room that is currently led by… Chimere Dike & Van Jefferson… 
• No matter the reason, the Titans have stymied superstars like Devon Witherspoon & Derek Stingley over the last two weeks, giving a poor outlook to Jones. Jones has been spectacular of late, with 6 tackles/game over the last month as the primary slot-man. That stretch does make Jones hard to sit, however, if Cam Ward and co can hold Devon Witherspoon to 4 tackles and no impact plays, Jones expects to be in for a similar fate.

Fade: Evan Williams, S, Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (Thanksgiving Morning)

• Williams has had a strong year, taking over the deep role for the Packers. He has averaged 6.5 tackles/game on the year, including 8/game over the last 4 games. This has been despite a ~50% box rate in that stretch. This stretch has seen 2 INTs as well, which are not reliable.
• The Lions have been a poor matchup for Safeties, not allowing an S1 performance since week 7. The Lions are run-heavy, but tend to be more “at you”, giving more production to LBs and less so to deep safeties (unless Jahmyr Gibbs goes crazy). Williams still could have a strong week, but we should not expect another top-12 week with the matchup.

Fade: Isaiah Pola-Mao, S, Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

• Pola-Mao has been a worthy IDP starter, even as the Raiders have fully fallen apart. Over the past month, he has been an S2, with nearly 6 tackles/game and only 1 big play. His role is not ideal for IDP, with only ~35% of snaps in the slot/box, lowering the already shaky floor. 
• The Chargers are a bad safety matchup, with a poor run-game and elite QB who is not making many mistakes. No team has allowed fewer points to safeties over the past month than the Chargers, allowing a whole point less per game than any other team. The struggles in the run game have kept opposing LBs inflated, while the safeties are not receiving IDP numbers. Pola-Mao is not a common start, but this matchup should keep him faded from your lineups even with the recent quality numbers.

Thanks for checking out my recommendations for your league’s 2025 IDP Plays & Fades for Week 13. You can find all of our IDP Plays & Fades articles for 2025 by clicking here!

I hope you enjoyed it and took some information away, helping you win your IDP matchups. You can find my past & future work here, and can catch me on the Ride or Dynasty Podcast (@RideorDynasty) every week, live at 7 pm EST with JJ Wenner (@JJWenner) and Jameson Hutchison (@Jamesonrulez). Feel free to reach out to me directly @JoeLow63 on Bluesky, X, or in Discord, where you can also find and follow @FantasyInFrames!