2025 IDP Plays & Fades for Week 16

Welcome to our 2025 IDP Plays & Fades for Week 16!

And now we are off, running down to the Ript-IDP! Let’s uncap our pens and discuss the fades and plays for THE PLAYOFFS! All the hard work has been done, and now we make the final push to crown ourselves in glory and avoid the depths of Tartarus.

In this series, I will highlight players who could surpass expectations or fall short. We will hit 3 plays and 3 fades at each position (DL, LB, DB) from varying positions in weekly rankings. We have a slight change to the format, where DTs and CBs have been dropped. For plays, we will also be tackling one from each of the following categories: 

• Play: a non-top 12 player at their position that expects to produce at a similar level this week, even if they do not have a great matchup.
• Floor: a player that may not have a great matchup, but still has a great chance at producing at a top-30 level in their position, based on consistency and skill.
• Ceiling: This player is boom-or-bust, but has a combination of role increase, talent, and a great matchup that could see them vault from middling production into the top-12.

Now it is time to saddle your mount (horse, pegasus, dragon, etc) and ride into the fires (seas?) of IDP week 16! 

*Rankings and Fantasy point scoring will be based on FantasyPros IDP scoring, which can be found here.* 

**Base metrics are provided by FantasyData, and advanced metrics such as Pass Rush Productivity (PRP), Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR), and Average Depth of Tackle (AVDT) will be referenced via Pro Football Focus.** 

Defensive Lineman

Play: Harold Landry, New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens (SNF)

• Landry has been solid in his first year with the Patriots, with 8.5 sacks and 3.5 tackles/game. Landry has scored 8.0 points (about the line for a solid game in this scoring) in 9 of 14 games, including 3 straight. In a good matchup, he remains a good play with upside.
• Baltimore is a top-10 matchup for EDGE players, giving up an EDGE1 performance in 3 straight. Those points have come through a combination of sacks & tackles, allowing for a high floor & ceiling. Landry is a good bet to be a top-18 EDGE this week. 
• Last Week: Hines-Allen’s hot streak ended at 4, as he was kept without a sack in a blowout win. 

Ceiling Play: Donovan Ezeiruaku, Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers

• The Chargers have been a great team to attack as of late, so we swing for the fences here. Since taking on a full-time role in week 4, Ezeiruaku has been a playable IDP asset, with 3 tackles/game. He only has 2 sacks, which is a concern, but that is why this is a swing-for-the-fences.
• The Chargers have bled points to EDGE players as their OL has fallen apart. They have allowed 5 top-18 finishes in the last 3 games, plus another that fell just shy of double digits—those 6 players combined for 31 tackles and 7.5 sacks, which is excellent production. Since week 6, Ezeiruaku’s pass rush metrics have been in-line with Nick Herbig, who is a top-24 EDGE this year (and had a top-18 finish against the Chargers). Ezeiruaku may have another 2-3 tackle day that goes unnoticed, but if he hits, there is top-18 potential. If you are an underdog playing a Goliath this week, Ezeiruaku may be the David you need.
• Last Week: Phillips struggled again… what is the saying for fool me thrice?

Floor Play: Chase Young, New Orleans Saints vs New York Jets

• Chase Young is back?? Injuries dashed the hopes we had for the 2nd overall pick, but he has earned the extension signed this offseason. In 8 games (not counting a limited comeback in week 6), Young has 6 sacks and 3 tackles/game. He has been a steady contributor, with only 2 of 8 games below 8.8 points. Add in he has faced a bottom-10 matchup in 5 of 8 games, and this production is quite impressive.
• The Jets may be the best matchup Young has faced this year, despite just being within the top-10. In their last 4 games (with 3 starting QBs) the Jets have allowed 7 top-25 finishes at EDGE. Even with a good OL, the Jets turmoil at QB allows many sacks and enough tackles to keep Young in the top-18 range. That OL may keep him from a top-8 finish, but he is a good play to stay the course.
• Last week: Karlaftis lived up to his floor, with a solid yet unspectacular day. 

Fade: Demarcus Lawrence, Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams (TNF)

• We have consistently avoided TNF players this season (aside from Turkey-Day), but have to break that mold here. Lawrence has been an excellent piece for many IDP teams that are alive at this point, but he faces an atrocious matchup Thursday night. The Rams have given up the fewest points to EDGE players this season (almost 2 fewer PPG than any other team!)
• The Rams have only allowed three EDGE players to finish in the top-15 this season: DPOY candidate Will Anderson in week 1, Laiatu Latu in week 4, and Aidan Hutchinson (on the back of an interception) last week. Add in that Lawrence’s IDP pace has slowed (borderline EDGE2/3 since week 11, which came off of four weeks as a top-5 EDGE), and we have a challenging play. Lawrence’s upside and overall consistency make him hard to bench, but you cannot bank on him going off this week.
• Last Week: Gary struggled, as expected. After Micah Parsons went down, you can expect him to struggle for the rest of the season.

Fade: Jonathan Cooper, Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars

• Cooper has been hit-or-miss this year, with 8 sacks and over 3 tackles/game. A half-sack against Green Bay broke a 3-game skid, but does it put him back into play territory? Unfortunately, we are saying no this week. 
• Jacksonville has been a poor matchup of late, allowing a bottom-5 total to the position since Danielle Hunter brutalized them in week 10 (a play of the week there!). Cooper has incredibly strong overall rush metrics this season, but – much like our next name – has fallen off over the last month. In the first 10 games, Cooper averaged nearly 4 pressures a game (Byron Young or Nik Bonitto territory), to 7 total over the last 4. Fade the secondary Bronco EDGE in this matchup and during the cold stretch.
• Last Week: Muhammad did not add to his sack total and only tallied one assisted tackle.

Fade: Laiatu Latu, Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers (MNF)

• Latu has had a strong sophomore season, with 6.5 sacks and 3 tackles/game. His pass rush metrics have put him as a top-25 EDGE, with similar metrics to players like Joey Bosa & Alex Highsmith. However, these numbers have dropped drastically over the past month, where he has been a borderline top-50 rusher. The cold metrics have made him hit-or-miss, with two top-15 performances and two absolute duds in the last four games.
• The 49ers matchup is one that could bring out another dud performance. The 49ers have been stingy to EDGE players all season, and tightened that over the past month. Since week 10, only one EDGE has sniffed a weekly top-20 performance… a guy named Myles Garrett, ever heard of him? A cold stretch and a poor matchup combine to make Latu a risky play in your semi-finals. He does not look to be a top-20 performer this week.
• Last Week: Sweat was nearly shut out again, with only an assisted tackle.

Linebackers

Play: Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos

• Last week’s ceiling play against the Broncos worked so well, we are hitting it again. Lloyd has not been an IDP stalwart this year with a low tackle floor (5.5/game). He is a big play threat, however, with 6 turnover plays and 1.5 sacks. His style of play is high-risk and high-reward, which may be what you need this week. He has been an LB2/3 overall, and has the potential to break into the top-18 with tackles or big plays.
• Denver is a fun matchup for a high-risk LB. Bo Nix just had the best game of his career, but is still highly risk-prone, especially over the middle or when heated up (which Jacksonville does well). The Broncos have allowed massive tackle numbers to LBs. Most of these will go to tackle-hog Foye Oluokun, but Lloyd hopes to take enough to boost his floor. 
• Last Week: Cashman had a good day as a borderline LB2, finishing with 11 total tackles (though most, as usual, were assisted).

Ceiling Play: Trenton Simpson, Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots (SNF) 

• Simpson takes over the Ravens’ LB2 role this week with Teddeye Buchanan on the shelf. Simpson will be on most waiver wires and is a sneaky ceiling play. In his two starts this season (weeks 5 & 6), Simpson finished as a top-24 LB both times. The Ravens’ LB2 has been a fun fantasy play all season (Buchanan was a top-30 LB in his stretch as a starter).
• New England has been a top-3 matchup over the last 4 weeks. They have allowed an LB1 performance in 3 straight games. Interestingly enough, those performances have each been by the opposing team’s LB2. Matt Milano and Zaire Barnes totalled 3 sacks against the Patriots in the last two games, which may not mean much, but Simpson did have 1.5 sacks in the two games started that were mentioned earlier. Simpson could be nothing this week, but if you have injuries and need a boost against a great opponent, this might be the sneaky star to find.
• Last Week: My guy Edgerrin Cooper had a fantastic game, finishing in the top-5 LBs with 8 tackles (2 for loss) and a fumble recovery.

Floor Play: Nakobe Dean, Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders (Saturday afternoon)

• Dean has been a good IDP asset since his return, with 7 tackles/game with 4.0 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Over the last 3 games, he has displaced (injured) rookie Jihaad Campbell and bumped the production to 9 tackles/game.
• The Commanders have not been a great matchup of late, but they have allowed many solid performances. They have allowed 5 top-30 finishes in the last 3 games, which are not spectacular but good enough to maintain a fantasy lead. Dean has a good tackle floor with Campbell on the bench, and the Commanders’ porous OL and weird QB play from Marcus Mariota give him a bit more upside than most floor plays. Dean is a safe bet to finish as a top-24 LB this week.  
• Last Week: Pratt was the floor LB2 we expected, finishing in the top-20 with 10 tackles.

Fade: Ernest Jones, Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams (TNF) 

• FADE BUT DO NOT BENCH Jones! The Rams are an awful LB matchup, which has stymied opposing LBs all season. They have not allowed any performance that would qualify as a game-winning one, despite playing many great ones. Jones is still a top-18 play (at worst), but the “fade” billing is more for the rest of your lineups. He is a top-8 play thus far, with over 8.5 tackles/game and 5 INTs. 
• Like Jack Campbell last week, this is more of a warning on how to build the rest of your lineups! Campbell still was a borderline LB1, but not quite what he has been for your teams. Jones should still be your LB1 (or 2 if you have built a juggernaut/got lucky), but you may need some more upside elsewhere.
• Last Week: As expected, Campbell did not finish top-8 again, but was still enough to be a borderline LB1. Hopefully, you were able to make that production up elsewhere!

Fade: Lavonte David, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

• It sucks to see a future Hall-of-Famer at the end, but that is where we are with David. He has struggled massively this year, which has snuck into IDP performances. He is still a borderline LB2. However, 29 tackles in the last 5 games has dropped his seasonal average under 7. Despite 2 forced fumbles in that stretch, David has barely been in the top-50 LBs, which does not give good hope for this week.
• Surprisingly, Carolina has been the worst matchup for LBs over the past month, allowing nearly 3 less PPG than any other team. They have not allowed a double-digit performer during their last 3 games, which includes matchups against Nate Landman & DeMario Davis. David will struggle to be a top-24 LB this week and should see the bench if you have better options. 
• Last Week: Dodson did sneak into LB2 range on the back on 10 tackles. 

Fade: Jamien Sherwood, New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints

• Sherwood has had a tumultuous season, with poor play and a brief benching. He still is a top-18 LB with over 9 tackles/game, but the lack of big plays makes his ceiling low. Sherwood has 1 big play on the season, a sack in week 7. In the 7 games since then he has been very inconsistent, with two 13+ tackle performances and three with 6 or fewer. 
• Now add in a surprisingly poor matchup, and Sherwood becomes an LB2/3 type-play. The Saints have been a bottom-8 LB matchup since Tyler Shough took over, allowing only a handful of solid days to LBs. Most LB production allowed by Shough’s Saints has been on tackles, so the aforementioned ceiling for Sherwood remains quite uninspiring. He is a safe floor play, but hope of a return to LB1 status feels misplaced. 
• Last Week: Rozeboom did have a sack last week, but only 6 total tackles kept him outside of the top-30 LBs and well outside of LB1 range, as expected!

Defensive Backs

Play: Budda Baker, Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

• Baker has not quite been as spectacular as we are accustomed to, with just over 7 tackles/game and only a couple of big plays. He still has elite usage, which has ticked up with Jalen Thompson out. While the 7 tackles is not elite, it still gives a high floor to the long-time IDP star, who can elevate in the right matchup.
• The Falcons are a strong matchup, allowing top-10 totals since Kirk Cousins took over at QB. They have allowed 8 top-24 finishes in the last 4 games, including 5 in the top-15. Baker has all the tools and the role to finish above his current ranking and be a top-18-type play in the semi-finals.
• Last Week: Evan Williams was fine before leaving the game with an injury. He ended the game with 5 total tackles 

Ceiling Play: Malik Mustapha, San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts (MNF) 

• Mustapha has been dominant for IDP since his return to action. He has 60 tackles in 8 games, while averaging over 7.5/game in the last 6. The big plays have not quite been there, but in the right matchup, he may be able to make up for that in tackle totals. In those last 6 games, he has been an S1.
• The Colts have been the best matchup for safeties across the season, even if that has tapered down a bit as of late. In that stretch, they still have given up top-3 overall performances to 2 safeties (Bates & Emmanwori), while allowing solid days to a few others. Mustapha could fit in any of the categories here, but if the Colts continue to lean on the run and short-passing game with Grandpa Rivers under center, Mustapha could tackle his way to a top-8 finish. 
• Last Week: Nubin hit, with 8 total tackles (2 for loss) en route to an S1 performance.

Floor Play: Nick Cross, Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers (MNF)

• On the other side of Monday night’s game, we will play the Colts’ box safety. Cross has had a strong season, with nearly 7 tackles/game and a handful of big plays. He has been a great floor play across the year, with less than 8.3 points only twice. 
• The 49ers have not been the greatest matchup for Safeties this year, but have allowed that 8.3 total (or more) an average of 1.5 times per game this season. They do not allow many blow-up performances, but they “excel” at allowing good games. Cross has the role and talent to do just that, and make his way into the top-18 once again! If you need a stable force this week, Cross is your bet!
• Last Week: Brisker did not end up as the floor play we hoped for, with only 5 total tackles. 

Fade: C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers (Saturday evening)

• Gardner-Johnson has been on a heater, with 14 tackles and 2 interceptions in the last two games (including against the Packers). He has a solid role as the slot-man for the Bears, but will he be able to make it three in a row? If you need a swing for the fences, CJGJ is your guy, but the floor has always been low for him.
• The Packers are a bottom-8 matchup on the year. They have allowed a few big games recently, but are hit-or-miss. With Micah Parsons down, the Packers will need to score (and thus pass) more, which takes opportunities away from from run defenders like CJGJ. Jordan Love is aggressive and will turn the ball ovr
• Last Week: Stone did struggle massively, with only 4 total tackles.

Fade: Chamarri Conner, Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans

• This is largely a vibes (or lack thereof) pick, as the Chiefs have fallen out of contention and lost their all-time QB. Conner has been great this year for IDP, but largely a liability on the field. Will the season fall off the rails, causing Conner to lose time for 2nd-year bruiser Jaden Hicks? Maybe! But the semifinals are not the week to risk it.
• The Titans are a tough matchup for Safeties, actually allowing the 2nd fewest points to the position this season. Malik Mustapha is the first top-18 performance they have allowed since week 5. With a poor run game, the Titans lean heavily on rookie gunslinger Cam Ward, which also lowers Conner’s tackle floor. He is a borderline S2/3 play this week.
• Last Week: Mustapha did not end up as an S1, but did stay in S2 range with 10 total tackles. 

Fade: Erick Hallett, Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers 

• This is a deeper cut, but as Brian Branch’s handcuff in a poor matchup, he is a worthy inclusion. In two games replacing Branch, Hallett has performed admirably, finishing as an S2 both times with 18 total tackles.
• Those numbers could make one think they have found a steal, but a poor matchup should give pause. No team has allowed fewer points to Safeties over this season than the Steelers. They have not allowed an S1 finish this season, which bodes poorly for Hallett’s replacement value. The role remains strong, but the ceiling is capped with a poor matchup and a lack of track record.
• Last Week: James broke out of the funk in a big way. Even with only 2 solo tackles, he finished in the top-5 with an interception and 8 assisted tackles. 

Thanks for checking out my recommendations for your league’s 2025 IDP Plays & Fades for Week 16. You can find all of our IDP Plays & Fades articles for 2025 by clicking here!

Catch me on the Ride or Dynasty Podcast (@RideorDynasty) every week, live at 7pm EST with JJ Wenner (@JJWenner) and Jameson Hutchison (@Jamesonrulez). Feel free to reach out to me directly@JoeLow63on Bluesky, X, or in Discord, where you can also find and follow @FantasyInFrames!