2025 IDP Plays & Fades for Week 17

Welcome to our 2025 IDP Plays & Fades for Week 17!

And now we are off, running down to the Ript-IDP! Let’s uncap our pens and discuss the fades and plays for THE CHAMPIONSHIP! All the hard work has been done, and now we must face the final battle of Olympus, to either fade into Tartarus or crown ourselves in glory! Thank you for riding into battle with me this season. It has been a pleasure and an honor, one that I hope has helped you ride the elevator in the Empire State Building up to the battle-scape!

In this series, I will highlight players who could surpass expectations or fall short. We will hit 3 plays and 3 fades at each position (DL, LB, DB) from varying positions in weekly rankings. We have a slight change to the format, where DTs and CBs have been dropped. For plays, we will also be tackling one from each of the following categories: 

• Play: a non-top 12 player at their position that expects to produce at a similar level this week, even if they do not have a great matchup.
• Floor: a player that may not have a great matchup, but still has a great chance at producing at a top-30 level in their position, based on consistency and skill.
• Ceiling: This player is boom-or-bust, but has a combination of role increase, talent, and a great matchup that could see them vault from middling production into the top-12.

Now it is time to saddle your mount (horse, pegasus, dragon, etc) and ride into the fires (seas?) of IDP week 17 – THE FINAL BATTLE! 

*Rankings and Fantasy point scoring will be based on FantasyPros IDP scoring, which can be found here.* 

**Base metrics are provided by FantasyData, and advanced metrics such as Pass Rush Productivity (PRP), Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR), and Average Depth of Tackle (AVDT) will be referenced via Pro Football Focus.** 

Defensive Lineman

Play: Nik Bonitto, Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (Christmas Night)

• Bonitto has been cold lately, with only 4 total tackles in his last 2 games. He still has 12.5 sacks on the year, but a minuscule tackle floor (<3/game) makes him boom-or-bust for IDP. In the right matchup, he absolutely can be an EDGE1 play and tilt a match for you. The pass-rush metrics are near-elite, ranking in the top-3 of PRP and just outside the top-15 of PRWR.
• Kansas City has become an elite matchup for EDGE players now that Patrick Mahomes AND Gardner Minshew are out for the year. Chris Oladukon was sacked 2.5 times by EDGE players (4 total) last week, and the Chargers had 2 top-3 EDGE performances the week before. With a banged-up OL and a start by Chris Oladukon or Shane Buechele, the Broncos should run wild. Bonitto leads that charge and could be in for a MONSTER game. 
• Last Week: Landry got shut out of the box score, as he came in and played sparingly due to an injury.

Ceiling Play: Abdul Carter, New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders

• Carter has come on as of late, with 17 tackles and 3.0 sacks in his last 4 games. In that stretch, he is ranking as a top-3 EDGE, which is propped up by 3 fumble plays. Even without the 2 fumbles forced and 1 recovery, Carter would be an EDGE1 in the stretch. He has metrics similar to Aidan Hutchinson, Jaelan Phillips, and Gregory Rousseau in this span, which have been very good overall. 
• The Raiders have been a matchup to target all season, allowing more points to EDGE players than any other team. They held up decently well against Houston, but the OL has been amazingly porous all season. Only 65 players in league-history have been sacked as many or more times as Geno Smith this year, despite missing over a full game. Carter’s heater, combined with a bad OL, gives him a massive ceiling. 
• Last Week: Sometimes you swing for the fences… and miss… Ezeiruaku was not a factor as the Charger OL had its best game of the season. 

Floor Play: Andrew Van Ginkel, Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions (Christmas Afternoon)

• In the last 6 weeks, AVG has had double-digit points 5 times. He has been incredibly consistent, with 5 tackles/game and 3.5 sacks in that span. He is as steady as they come, even if the ceiling is not remarkably high (barring a random interception). 
• Detroit is a middle-of-the-pack matchup for EDGE players, but the run-heavy approach can lead to high-tackle totals. AVG’s production over the past month+ has been against a variety of matchups, so this relatively poor matchup should not scare you off. The matchup may prevent him from being a top-8 play, but he is a safe EDGE2 play with some more upside. 
• Last week: Young firmly landed in EDGE1 range, with a sack and fumble recovery.

Fade: James Pearce Jr, Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams (MNF)

• We have avoided the Rams for most of the year, which has worked well overall. Pearce has been a fun rookie and a boost to IDP squads, but this may not be the matchup to expect stardom to continue. Pearce has played only 53% of snaps this season, which has led to 1.5 tackles/game. He has at least 0.5 sacks in 7 straight games, but against a Rams team that does not allow sacks, it is far from a guarantee. 
• The Rams have only allowed three EDGE players to finish in the top-15 this season: DPOY candidate Will Anderson in week 1, Laiatu Latu in week 4, and Aidan Hutchinson (on the back of an interception) a few weeks ago. Pearce has been a great sack artist in his rookie year, but the lack of floor combined with a bad matchup makes him a scary play this week.
• Last Week: Demarcus Lawrence ended up being a good “fade but don’t bench” type play. He had 9 total tackles, but 6 assists kept him as a back-end EDGE2.

Fade: Odafe Oweh, Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans (Saturday Afternoon)

• Oweh has had a resurgence since coming over to Los Angeles, with 3 tackles/game and 7 sacks in 10 games. The metrics have been incredibly strong as well, though not quite at the 12-sack pace (17 games). He is a high-reward play that could struggle in poor matchups, with a lower tackle floor. Oweh’s snaps have fluctuated lately, settling closer to 60% of snaps since Khalil Mack’s return from injury. 
• The Texans have figured out their OL as well as could be, and have been a shockingly poor matchup for EDGE players as of late. Only 4 teams have allowed fewer PPG to EDGE players since week 12, with only 1 sack allowed. They have not allowed a high tackle total either, especially not to secondary EDGE players. With Oweh having been an EDGE2 as of late, he may have been a debated player this week; the matchup and limited role make that a difficult decision to justify.
• Last Week: Jonathan Cooper continued the cold streak with just 2 total tackles.

Fade: Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

• Coming off his best performance of the year, one may be tempted to start him this week. The overall metrics have been strong over the past month-plus, with top-25 numbers in PRP & PRWR. It has been a rough year overall for the 5th-year pro, who has 3 tackles/game and 6.5 total sacks (4 before last week). 
• The Eagles have been an up-and-down line, for their lofty standards, battling injuries throughout the season. Still, they have been a bottom-10 matchup for EDGE players. They have not allowed an EDGE1 finish since week 6, giving little hope that he will be one this week. Even with a massive breakout game last week, Rousseau is a fade & stay-away this time. 
• Last Week: Laiatu Latu did record a sack, despite an offensive onslaught by the 49ers. 

Linebackers

Play: Trenton Simpson, Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (Saturday Night)

• We will recycle to Simpson ceiling-shot again in the championship round. In his three starts this season (weeks 5, 6, & 16), Simpson finished as a top-24 LB twice while having a top-8 finish last week. In those 3 starts, Simpson has had a fun combination of floor and upside, with almost 9 tackles/game and 2.5 sacks.
• Green Bay has not been a great matchup for LBs on the year, but potentially starting Malik Willis (or a hobbled Jordan Love) makes for an interesting matchup. Simpson almost has to be in championship game lineups after what he has done through 3 starting weeks, and the Packers offer a good enough outlook. With either QB starting, the Packers expect to be a bit more run-heavy than usual, creating more tackle opportunities. The Packers have also allowed a few sacks to LBs, combining floor and ceiling in an LB2-type projection (with upside) for Simpson.
• Last Week: Lloyd did not live up to hopes, finishing as a borderline LB3 with only 5 tackles.

Ceiling Play: Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills 

• To start, this pick is entirely reliant on Nakobe Dean missing this matchup (he left early last week and did not practice on Tuesday). Campbell filled in admirably, with 6 total tackles in just over half of the snaps. Through the first 6 weeks of the year (before Dean returned), Campbell was an LB3, with just under 7 tackles/game and a few big plays. 
• The Bills have been a great matchup for LBs as of late, allowing more points to the position than all but 3 teams. They have allowed a top-10 finish in consecutive weeks, including a sack to both players. Campbell has not recorded a sack yet, but had a great pass-rush profile as a prospect, giving hope that he can make it 3 in a row for the Bills. This is an all-risk, all-reward sort of play!
• Last Week: Simpson crushed this week, hopefully giving you the ceiling you may have needed. He finished with 7 tackles and a sack. 

Floor Play: Jamien Sherwood, New York Jets vs New England Patriots

• We will attack the Patriots’ matchup yet again, especially with Sherwood coming off his best performance of the season. Sherwood has a decent tackle floor, with 9/game, even if it has been spotty. In a great matchup, that floor is safe, while the Patriots offer another upside to his gam,e too.
• New England has been a top-3 matchup over the last 5 weeks. They have allowed an LB1 performance in 4 straight games. Interestingly enough, those performances have each been by the opposing team’s LB2. Matt Milano, Zaire Barnes, and Trenton Simpson totaled four sacks against the Patriots in the last three games. Sherwood had his second sack of the year last week, which may or may not lead to another potential sack this week.
• Last Week: Dean left the game early, so he did not factor into IDP leagues, unfortunately.

Fade: Germaine Pratt, Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars 

• Pratt has been great for Indianapolis since coming over in week 6, with 9 tackles/game. That pace has slowed slightly as of late, with just under 8/game in over the past 4 games. He has put up these numbers despite being the 2nd LB on the roster, as he has been out-snapped by Zaire Franklin every week. 
• The Jaguars have been an atrocious matchup for LBs as they have gotten hot, allowing fewer points than any other team since week 12. Pratt had a decent game against the Jags in week 14, but this was boosted by a fumble recovery. They have not allowed a top-12 finish in two months, keeping tackle counts and big plays suppressed. Pratt will be hard to bench, especially as a waiver-wire darling, but he projects closer to a back-end LB2 than a high-end 1. 
• Last Week: As expected, Jones did not finish top-8 again, but was still enough to be a borderline LB1. Hopefully, you were able to make that production up elsewhere!

Fade: Eric Wilson, Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions (Christmas afternoon)

• Wilson has been a great find for IDP rosters, but the boom-or-bust to his game may see the fortune run out this week. Wilson has been a borderline LB1, with just under 7 tackles/game and 6.5 sacks. Lately, his production has been fully sack-reliant, with 6 or fewer tackles in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of those others had only 7), while compiling all of the 6.5 sacks. 
• Detroit is not a great matchup for LBs, especially rush LBs. They have allowed only 1 top-12 finish in their last 7 games and only a few other LB2 finishes. Even with a run-heavy approach, the Lions do not allow high tackle totals for LBs, with most getting to the third level (or stopped at the LOS). Wilson is hard to bench with the massive upside, but this is not a matchup to feel great about. Even if he tallies a sack, the tackle totals project to be down, keeping him in LB2 range.
• Last Week: David had a sack that got him into the top-12 in an otherwise middling performance.

Fade: James Williams, Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints

• We have another injury-based pick here, as Williams would still be playable if Cedric Gray is out. However, Gray appears poised for a return after missing week-16 with a concussion, which would slide Williams back to the bench. Williams was a top-5 LB last week, with 9 tackles and a sack, but he cannot put up those numbers if he is not on the field.
• The Saints, too, have not been a great matchup as of late (despite my fade against them last week being wrong). They have not allowed many big plays to the position; instead, they are a volume-play team. That can work fine for Gray, who has made his name on that this season, but Williams would struggle a tad more there, with less refinement and experience at the position.
• Last Week: Sherwood bounced back with his best game of the season, adding a sack to 11 total tackles. 

Defensive Backs

Play: Kamren Curl, Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons (MNF)

• Since Quentin Lake went down in week 11, Curl has returned to a box-heavy role. His IDP production has been lackluster in the span, but enough of a floor where he can exploit a great matchup. He has averaged 5 tackles/game in that stretch while adding a few big plays. From his time in Washington, Curl has high-level IDP prowess, which can hopefully be revived here.
• The Falcons are a strong matchup, allowing top-10 totals since Kirk Cousins took over at QB. They have allowed 10 top-24 finishes in the last 5 games, including 6 in the top-15. Even though Curl has struggled as of late, the matchup gives him clear top-24 projections in championship week.
• Last Week: Baker had a solid day, finishing in the top-18 with 10 total tackles. 

Ceiling Play: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals 

• DTD returned from his own injury last week to take the place of long-time IDP stalwart Jalen Thompson. In that matchup with the Falcons, he finished borderline S1 on the back of 11 tackles. He did not have a significant box presence in that game, but his run defense should see him track there more as he gets back into game shape.
• The Bengals have not been a great matchup for Safeties, but have allowed a handful of solid finishes for hybrid box/deep players. Cincinnati should be able to balance run & pass more, giving DTD more balanced opportunities. The matchup is a risk, but if DTD’s role does expand and he is able to combine floor & upside, he can go from the waiver wire to an S2+ that can swing your championship round. 
• Last Week: Mustapaha did not have a high-end finish, as Phillip Rivers’ Colts leaned on the pass far more than expected. 

Floor Play: Malik Mustapha, San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears (SNF)

• Mustpaha has been a tough player to peg for Plays & Fades, so we’re just going to slot him into a safe play. He has averaged over 7 tackles/game since his return, giving him that great floor. Big plays have not been there, but he has consistently maintained good numbers, keeping him as a borderline S1 over the past month.
• The Bears are a poor matchup on paper, but Mustapha has produced against those many times. Even with a plurality of snaps deep, he can produce against anyone. Despite the poor overall numbers the Bears have allowed, they do allow at least one S2-type performance per week, which is exactly what we are looking for here. 
• Last Week: Cross too struggled this week, as Brock Purdy and the 49ers lit the Colts up through the air. 

Fade: Tykee Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins

• When looking at the season-long body of work, we see Tykee Smith as S2 overall. However, recent weeks have started to dispel that, as he has been outside the top-50 Ss over the past 5 weeks. His snaps (and IDP-friendly role) have diminished in that span, making him an incredibly difficult play. 
• Now we add a poor matchup in, and Smith is a fade and probably bench. Miami has allowed a few decent weeks in the past months, but has overall stymied the position. Their run game does not allow for many tackles at the third level, making Smith’s only real hope for IDP relevance come from the chance of an interception from rookie Quinn Ewers.
• Last Week: CJGJ did not have an impactful day, as he was unable to reel in an interception to boost 3 tackles. 

Fade: Tyler Nubin, New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders

• Nubin has been awesome lately, ranking as the overall S2 over the past 5 weeks. Those numbers are boosted by a TD last week, while he has only 6 tackles/game in the stretch. Nubin finds himself as a fade, with a lower tackle floor and a non-full-time role. He has been playing about 75% of snaps, though the role is ideal in those.
• The Raiders are a surprisingly bad matchup, allowing the fewest points to safeties of any team in the last 5 weeks. They have all but shut out the Browns, Broncos, & Eagles rooms in that stretch. The only points that the Raiders have allowed have come off interceptions, so Nubin, who has 0 career interceptions, would be reliant on that. 
• Last Week: A sack saved what would have been a middling day for Chamarri Conner. 

Fade: Tre’Von Moehrig, Carolina Panthers vs Seattle Seahawks

• For the final entry of the 2025 IDP Fades & Plays, we have a trademark “Fade but do NOT Bench” for one of my guys. Moehrig is a top-10 play on the year, but all are subject to a poor matchup. Moehrig has slowed lately, and much of his production relies on a massive volume of TFLs, which are hard to count on.
• Seattle is a bottom-5 matchup this season, and they have not allowed an S1 finish over the last 5 weeks. Their run game has struggled, causing them to rely more on the pass, which takes away from potential box production. Moehrig cannot be benched with the production this year, but a top-12 finish feels unlikely with a poor matchup and colder stretch.
• Last Week: Hallett did not suit up, as Thomas Harper took over the role instead. 

Thanks for checking out my recommendations for your league’s 2025 IDP Plays & Fades for Week 17. You can find all of our IDP Plays & Fades articles for 2025 by clicking here!

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