Welcome to my 2025 IDP Plays & Fades for Week 6!
And now we are off, running down to the Ript-IDP! Let’s uncap our pens and discuss the fades and plays for Week 6! Week 5 (one-third of the way through!) gives more data points for us to use for our ascent up fantasy mountain, and we will try to lead you to the top of Mount Olympus!
The process remains strong, and it is starting to pay off after another strong week! Now we are a quarter of the way through the season, and usage, skill, etc, is starting to normalize.
In this series, I will highlight some players who could surpass expectations or fall below them. We will hit three plays and three fades at each position (DL, LB, DB) from varying positions in weekly rankings. While they will not be forced, I will also try to add in a DT and a CB from their respective position groups. The goal for each group will be to have at least one high-level name and a lower-ranked player, ones who could rise tiers based on matchups or falter a bit due to “empty” statistics. Now it is time to saddle your mount (horse, pegasus, dragon, etc) and ride into the fires (seas?) of IDP week 6!
Some notes! I have built a “dummy league” that reflects FantasyPros scoring as closely as possible, but has “true positions.” When referencing rankings, they come from this league, with the hope that it closely mirrors FantasyPros rankings/statistics! As we head into bye weeks, note that matchup stats are PPG-based, not bulk! Advanced statistics/metrics that will be used come from the Pro Football Focus (PFF) database. Metrics include PRP (Pass Rush Productivity, essentially how effective an individual rusher is), PRWR (Pass Rush Win Rate), AVDT (Average Depth of Tackle – how far down the field run tackles are made), amongst some other snap counts. If any questions arise, please do not hesitate to ask!!
Defensive Lineman:
Play: DeForest Buckner, DT, Indianapolis Colts vs Arizona Cardinals
- Buckner was a hit-or-miss play early in the season, making him a Fade selection a few weeks ago. However, Buckner has been on a tear since that inclusion, with 14 total tackles and a sack over the last two games. He has had his two best overall games (per PFF) in that span as well, leading us to believe that Buckner has shaken off rust and remains an elite play.
- This matchup with Arizona is juicy as well. They have bleed points to DTs thus far, including dominant performances by fellow superstars Jeffery Simmons and Leonard Williams in the past two weeks (3.0 total sacks and 12 total tackles). Arizona’s OL and RB rooms have lost many veteran snaps, leading to more inconsistency in front of the already inconsistent Kyler Murray. DeFo has top-5 DL potential this week, and DT2 Neville Gallimore may also be playable in a league starting multiple DTs!
- Last Week: Maliek Collins finished as a top-5 DT with two sacks!
Play: James Houston, EDGE, Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
- Here we are going for an NBA Jam rules heat-check. Typically, a part-time player would not be in consideration here, but Houston is an exception to that rule. Houston – if you remember – had a wild rookie season in Detroit, with eight sacks and 12 total tackles as a part-time specialist in 2022. He has seen his snaps tick up each of the past 2 weeks, where he has amassed 2.5 sacks.
- At face value, Carolina has not been a great matchup for EDGE players. However, they have allowed 3.0 total sacks to EDGE players in the last two weeks, to secondary-type rushers. Bryce Young has been gun-shy often this season, taking sacks to speedier rushers like the aforementioned Phillips and K’Lavon Chaisson. This is a deep (how deep, JJ? – another RoD reference!!) cut, but with some high-end players on bye in Houston and Minnesota, this is an upside swing.
- Last week: Josh Sweat ended up as a top-3 EDGE, sacking Cam Ward twice in maybe the weirdest game of the year.
Play: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers
- Welp, we have another matchup lock for this category! The Chargers remain without both of their blue-chip tackles, along with some interior pieces. The Chargers allowed 4.0 sacks to Washington EDGE players last week after 5.0 total to Bronco and Giant EDGE players in the previous two matchups. Lock in the top Dolphin rusher!
- Bradley Chubb has had more box score numbers this season (including the most disgusting sack last week against Carolina), but Phillips has clearly been the better rusher. His metrics put him as a top-30 EDGE in every PFF category, despite just getting his first sack last week. 14 total tackles is a poor number, but his rush metrics off another awful injury are massively impressive. He may not see enough snaps to finish as high as last week’s play, but Phillips can be started as an EDGE/DL2 confidently.
- Last Week: Dorrance Armstrong was an easy EDGE1 behind two sacks against the backup Chargers’ OL (my guy Justin Herbert deserves so much better….)
Fade: Byron Murphy II, DT, Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Murphy has started his sophomore season strong, with a mini-breakout through the first third of the year as a mid-level DT2. He has been colder lately, with only five tackles and no sacks in the last two weeks. That followed a stretch (that led to recognition on the Ride or Dynasty Podcast heading into week 4) with 14 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 3 games. He is a great dynasty value, but for now, he is a bit touch-and-go.
- The matchup with the Jaguars makes Murphy a challenging play, as the Jaguars have held DTs to minimal points this year. They have been a bottom-3 matchup so far this season, allowing only a single DT2 performance all season.
- Last Week: Jonah Laulu finished outside of the top-24 DTs, with only three total tackles.
Fade: Will McDonald, EDGE, New York Jets vs Denver Broncos
- We will continue to avoid Denver, as they have remained an impossible matchup for non-elite EDGE players in 2024/2025. They allowed one sack to an EDGE last week, but it still has been a bottom-3 matchup to the position throughout the season. If you can help it, continue to avoid this matchup!
- The specific player has also been an issue for IDP squads this season. After a breakout, double-digit sack 2024, McDonald opened 2024 with a 2-sack performance. Since then? Bupkis. He has four total tackles in the last three games, while facing a gauntlet of Offensive Lines. This is not the week to expect McDonald to get back on track, though, after this week, the matchups lighten up massively! Hold strong on McDonald, but try not to play him this week!
- Last Week: Jalyx Hunt was all but shut out by the Broncos, with only one assisted tackle. He is still worth a hold as the snap-leader in the room.
Fade: Bryce Huff, EDGE, San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Huff has been very good since taking over a larger role from Nick Bosa. He has tallied nine tackles and two sacks in the last 3 weeks, suitable for EDGE2 production. Back with Robert Saleh, Huff has seen a high percentage of snaps, giving him a decent floor.
- Matchups can change even promising breakouts, however. The Buccaneers have been a dominant offense, shutting EDGE players down all season. This has become even more true with the return of Tristan Wirfs, making them a bottom-5 EDGE matchup over the past 3 weeks. Huff switches sides often, but this matchup will make it incredibly difficult to keep the high-level play going.
- Last week: WHAT THE HECKING HECK WAS THAT BRYCE YOUNG?!!? Chubb finished as a top-8 EDGE last week. However, the process was absolutely correct. He finished with one assisted tackle and the yuckiest, dumbest play of the year, where Young dropped the ball on a half-hearted pump-fake. That play gave Phillips a tackle (for loss), along with a sack, forced fumble, and fumble recovery. UGH! Oh, whale, cannot win them all! #TrustTheProcess
Linebackers:
Play: Patrick Queen, Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
- Queen has been living up to his first-round and big second-contract billing this season. He has been a top-10 LB thus far, with nine tackles/game and a handful of big plays. The last two games, in particular, saw him finish in the top-15 and top-3 before going into the bye week.
- Queen has the first of back-to-back elite matchups this week with the Browns. Cleveland has allowed more points to LBs than anyone this season, as they have leaned into the run behind Joe Flacco and Dillon Gabriel. That should continue in Gabriel’s first stateside start, giving Queen a massive floor and ceiling.
- Last Week: We picked the wrong Tampa LB last week, as SirVocea Dennis was outperformed by Lavonte David. Dennis was still serviceable against the Seahawks, but David got the matchup boost into the top-8 LBs.
Play: Quay Walker, Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals
- Walker has been great for the Packers this season, turning around an awful offseason narrative. He has been a borderline LB1 with 10 tackles per game while looking strong across the board. He has seen every snap for the Packers so far, setting him up for great production if the matchup allows.
- This is a weird matchup, as the Bengals added and are starting veteran Joe Flacco at QB this week. However, Walker and the Packers have already seen Flacco once this season, a matchup where Walker was a top-15 LB, totalling 14 tackles. Flacco’s Browns and the Bengals have been top-3 LB matchups this season, so adding Flacco to the Bengals should not change much.
- Last Week: Eric Wilson was solid last week, with nine total tackles. He didn’t end up as an LB2, with no big plays, but delivered a solid performance that helped stay the course!
Play: T.J. Edwards/Noah Sewell, Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders (MNF)
- This matchup will be tough to pick, as it is the last game to kick off this weekend. Edwards has missed the entire season, while Sewell has played valiantly in his wake. Sewell has been a mid-level LB3 on the season, while Edwards has been a top-10 LB for the past few seasons.
- With Jayden Daniels back and Bill the RB breaking out, the Commanders are a much better matchup than the season-long numbers show. Chargers’ LB2 Troy Dye was a top-5 LB against the Commanders last week with 14 tackles. Washington expects to be run-heavy, especially with Terry McLaurin still banged up, giving either Bears’ LB a good chance to see LB2+ production.
- Last week: While the Ravens got bludgeoned by the Texans, Buchanan was an IDP star. He finished as a top-5 LB, racking up 15 total tackles!
Fade: Tyrel Dodson, Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers
- Dodson has been an excellent pickup for the Dolphins, averaging over 10 tackles per game over the first month. Dodson has seen 92% of snaps, but is the clear two behind Jordyn Brooks, which can make his production a little more variable each week.
- Dodson is now in concussion protocol, which hurt his numbers in week 5. The Chargers have been a poor matchup this season, and this trend is expected to continue as they will have to rely more on the air. Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton are on IR, meaning the Chargers will not be able to lean as much on the run, worsening the outlook for Dodson and LBs as a whole.
- Last Week: Oluokun was solid, finishing as an LB2, but was outshone again by Devin Lloyd. 14 total tackles is a very strong number, but Lloyd is taking all big-play opportunities while stealing his snap-share.
Fade: Mack Wilson, Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts
- Wilson finds himself as a fade for a second consecutive week. He is in a matchup gauntlet right now, with the 2nd of 3 consecutive bottom-8 matchups. Wilson can still be played in deep leagues, but does not have high-end upside.
- Mack Wilson has been solid this year, starting as an LB2. However, this matchup (as stated last week) will make him earn his numbers. The Colts have not allowed an LB to total more than 7 tackles for the past 3 weeks, which makes Wilson’s yearly production a ceiling that will be tough to find.
- Last Week: Wilson, as expected, was fine but unspectacular. He finished as a borderline LB3, a finish that can be expected again!
Fade: Nate Landman, Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens
- The Ravens tend to be run-heavy and an excellent matchup for LBs. However, with Lamar Jackson down and the defense struggling, they are forced to be pass-heavy in a catch-up game script. The Texans blew the Ravens out last week, which made a pass-heavy game plan that did not allow any of their LBs to have good IDP games. We could see a similar fortune for Landman this week.
- Landman has been good for IDP, as the Rams LB1 and an IDP LB2 overall. He has been heavily matchup dependent, recording 24 tackles in two games with a strong matchup and 17 in three games with a poor matchup. With a poor matchup, Landman projects closer to half a dozen tackles than the hopeful dozen.
- Last Week: Knight regained the LB2 role for the Seahawks (barely), but still finished outside of the top-40 LBs and as LB3 for Seattle themselves.
Defensive Backs:
Play: Taron Johnson, CB, Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons (MNF)
- Johnson has struggled so far this season, but seems to be getting closer to form. In two solid matchups between weeks 3 & 4, Johnson totalled 12 tackles, which is far closer to his previous pace. Johnson still sees a massive workload from the slot, which will be great in the matchup with Atlanta.
- The Falcons have been an excellent matchup for Slot CBs so far this season, allowing 25 total tackles to those players in 4 games. Overall, the Falcons have been a top-3 matchup for all CBs, allowing tackles and a good amount of interceptions as well. This is a great matchup to get Johnson back on track!
- Last Week: Chau Smith-Wade did not end up suiting up…
Play: Jalen Thompson, S, Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts
- Thompson continues to be an underrated, more-than-solid IDP piece this season. He has started out as a mid-level S3 while averaging just over seven tackles per game, which is in line with his past few seasons. Even with Budda Baker, Thompson has still seen significant usage, with 65% of snaps in the box/slot area.
- Indianapolis has been a great matchup for safeties, allowing more points to them than any other team this year. To box safeties in particular, the Colts have allowed over 8 tackles per game, giving a massive floor to an already high-floor player in Thompson. Thompson may not have S1 upside (without an INT), but is a safe bet for a DB2/3 slot again!
- Last Week: In an absolute blowout, Wilson finished as a high-end S3. 8 total tackles is solid, but ended up disappointing as the Jets were forced to be pass-heavy due to all-around incompetence early.
Play: Marques Sigle, S, San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Sigle has filled in for Malik Mustapha admirably thus far. Through five weeks, he is averaging eight tackles per game, landing just outside of S1 range. He has had an ideal IDP role, seeing more snaps in the box than any other safety in the league. Overall, he has played almost 70% of snaps in the box/slot, giving a great floor for IDP production.
- Tampa has been a top-8 matchup for safeties thus far. They have not allowed many elite performances, but have given up a plethora of good games, including three top-30 safeties last week against Seattle. Sigle with his usage and a strong matchup can safely be used as an S2 this week with backend S1 upside.
- Last Week: Reid ended with only two tackles as he left the game early with an injury. The process proved correct as both Jordan Howden and Jonas Sanker finished as top-8 Safeties on the week. Darn injuries!!
Fade: Greg Newsome, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars vs Seattle Seahawks
- Newsome finds himself as a fade largely due to the mid-week trade, and uncertainty for his overall playing time and role. He expects to take over the slot for Jacksonville, but how many snaps will he play? Newsome has been solid for fantasy, fishing up as a CB2 with five tackles/game.
- Even if Newsome had a full-time role for the Jaguars, this would be a subpar matchup. Seattle has been a bottom-10 matchup over the past few weeks. Newsome should be a solid CB play for the rest of the season, but there is too much uncertainty to rely on him this week!
- Last Week: McMillian finished with only four total tackles. However, one of those was a sack, resulting in CB1 production for Hooker.
Fade: Jonas Sanker, S, New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots
- Sanker has had a great start to his rookie year, as a borderline S1 through his last four games played. He has averaged six tackles per game while accounting for several big plays in the stretch, combining floor and ceiling for the 3rd round pick. The usage is a concern for Sanker, as he has only seen about 30% of snaps in the box/slot, making his production a little more dependent on big plays and game plan. With Justin Reid injured, Jordan Howden jumped into the box role, which should maintain if Reid misses more time.
- This matchup is not ideal for the rookie deep safety, as New England has been a bottom-5 matchup for safeties. After week 1, they have not allowed a single safety to finish as even an S2, with most opponents not landing within the top-30 weekly safeties.
- Last Week: Branch did end up struggling for IDP leagues, with only four total tackles in an absolute bloodbath (that became close due to garbage time).
Fade: Xavier Watts, S, Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills (MNF)
- Our final player this week is yet another NFC South, 3rd round safety from an ACC (adjacent) school. Watts was a big-play machine at Notre Dame, which has continued early into his NFL career. He has been an S1 this year, though those big plays have boosted modest tackle totals (6 per game). Watts has seen only 50% of snaps in the box/slot, making him more big-play dependent.
- Watts absolutely can make big plays regularly, but a matchup with Josh Allen and the Bills makes that less certain. Aside from All-Pro candidate Kyle Hamilton, only the aforementioned Jonas Sanker has produced well at Safety against Buffalo (also on the back of an INT). Buffalo has been a bottom-5 matchup over the past 3 weeks, making Watts a riskier play in more standard scoring formats.
- Last Week: Bishop had only two tackles, but a sack saved his day and kept him within the top-36 safeties. Boom-or-bust continues!
