2025 Plays & Fades for Week 13

Welcome to our 2025 Plays & Fades for Week 13!

We Cajuns do Thanksgiving a little, or a lot differently, than the rest of the country.

We’re less about the macaroni & cheese and stuffing (what the heck is stuffing? wet bread?) and we prefer to get down with a good rice dressing (Yankee translation: dirty rice).

And much like a Louisiana Thanksgiving, we tend to do this Plays & Fades thing a little differently.

We might swing and miss in some big ways (hello, Blake Corum) and we might crush it in other areas.

Regardless, we’re still here trying to give you the winning hand to win your fantasy leagues.

Without ado, let’s get into it.

* Stats courtesy of the good folks over at PFF, Fantasy Points Data Suite, FantasyData.com, Player Profiler, The Fantasy Footballers, and FTN Fantasy. Fantasy point references will be made from Half-PPR scoring*

Quarterbacks

Play: Bo Nix @ Washington

• Nix has the fourth-friendliest pass defense this week.
• He’s slumped a little recently, but that’s not due to opportunity.
• Over the last three weeks, Nix has averaged 34 pass attempts per game but only 6.1 yards per attempt.
• Prior to Tua only throwing the ball 20 times last week against them, Washington had given up 18 or more fantasy points to the quarterback in each of the previous nine games.

Play: Jacoby Brissett @ Tampa Bay

• 18.1 fantasy points per game since he’s become the starter.
• That’s the Jacoby Brissett case.
• A bad defense and a quarterback that has taken his team to new offensive heights is something that you want to ride until it stops working.

Play: Matthew Stafford @ Carolina

• Stafford is an MVP candidate. There, I said it.
• Since Week 4, this quarterback with no rushing upside is on pace for a 381-point fantasy season when paced out for 17 games.
• He’s averaged 7.5 yards per attempt with an absurd 9 percent touchdown rate.
• Matchups don’t matter when you’re playing at this level.

Fade: Jordan Love @ Detroit

• Is Jordan Love moving into his game manager era? Possibly.
• We discussed it last week, he’s been more bad than good this season by a long ways.
• We’ll talk about this trend with Tua next. But, Love has thrown it 45 times in two weeks while Green Bay has won both its games. Solid QB2s aren’t start worthy in most scenarios.

Fade: Tua Tagovailoa @ New Orleans

• Miami has won its last two games taking the ball out of Tua’s hands.
• He’s only had 41 attempts combined the past two weeks as the Dolphins defense has given up only 13 points per game.
• Mike McDaniel is coaching for his job at this point, not to prove his offense is brilliant.
• If this game gets defensive again, it’s another spot where a winning formula will cost Tua fantasy points.

Fade: Brock Purdy @ Cleveland

• Cleveland is the third-stingiest pass defense and Purdy has thrown multiple interceptions in three of his four starts this season.
• Yes, it’s a small sample. But it isn’t what we’re used to in terms of Purdy Efficiency. It’s enough for pause for me in playing him this week with this matchup.

Running Back

Play: Bhayshal Tuten @ Tennessee

• The Sean Tucker call a couple weeks ago has me feeling a little light-headed and, frankly, greedy.
• The Titans are the fourth-best run matchup for fantasy running backs and Tuten has the explosion and ability to outplay his RB35 status this week.
• He has seven carries last week despite playing only 21 percent of snaps. They want him touching the ball. That’s enough for me to know that if he gets hot like he did two weeks ago it’s wheels up.

Play: Kareem Hunt @ Dallas

• Isiah Pacheco is expected to play. It shouldn’t matter.
• K.C. has its goal line back and Hunt has solidly been an RB2 in fantasy for the past month.
• It’s not fun, it’s effective. And sometimes that’s all you need.

Play: Derrick Henry @ Cincinnati

• Free space.
• Henry has been an RB1 in 5 of the past six weeks. This isn’t a time to overthink this one.
• High over/under and a weak run defense. That feels about as ripe for 100 and 2 touchdowns as possible.

Fade: Rico Dowdle @ L.A. Rams

• Rico has been solid all season. But he’s got the second-toughest run defense and will likely be playing from behind.
• A bad game script and a snap share that trended in the wrong way last week give me cause for pause.

Fade: Christian McCaffrey @ Cleveland

• This isn’t avoid. This is temper.
• If CMC is being listed as the RB2 against a top run defense this week, then that means if he finishes as an RB2 he’s technically a fade.
• You’re starting him. I’m not telling you not to. All I’m saying is that Cleveland could give you some issues this week.

Fade: Javonte Williams vs. Kansas City

• Javonte has been one of the surprises of the fantasy season. He’s been a sure-fire RB2 at minimum all season.
• But you have to account for the Chiefs being the fourth-best run defense in all of fantasy against running backs.
• The position only averages 14.7 fantasy points per game against them. With most teams going by-committee these days, that’s an impressive number.

Wide Receiver

Play: Rashee Rice @ Dallas

• Rice is the unquestioned top target and plays the free square pass defense in Dallas.
• He’s in the WR2-3 overall range this week. You play your studs, but this is a guy that has the target share, talent and defense to explode for 30-plus for your teams this week.
• He and JSN are turning into Infinity Stone Players. And we know Thanos wanted to collect them all to destroy the world.

Play: Tet McMillon vs. L.A. Rams

• A fun fact: Tet has never been targeted less than five times in any game this season.
• Considering Bryce Young hasn’t been any kind of consistent, the fact that McMillon is trending towards an 80-catch, 1100-yard and seven-touchdown rookie season should tell you all you need to know about the talent.
• Is he QB-proof? Possibly. And that’s one of the safest types you can find in our game.

Play: Chris Olave @ Miami

• A tough matchup, sure.
• But Olave is seemingly being targeted majorly by Shough, and that matters.
• Olave’s catch percentage over the past two weeks have been 63 and 69%. Those are solid numbers that suggest he’s getting good, predictable and steady delivery that is conducive to production.

Fade: Wan’Dale Robinson @ New England

• Wan’Dale has been targeted 23 times in the past two weeks. That’s encouraging.
• Yet, for all those targets he has WR48 and a WR2 finish to show.
• This is the Jameis Effect. It’s unpredictable. It’s boom-or-bust coupled with a matchup with Christian Gonzalez that makes this impossible to call, but I’d trend towards Robinson being closer to WR30 than his WR21 ranking this week.

Fade: A.J. Brown vs. Chicago

• We loved seeing AJB come to life last week. It was a long-time coming this season.
• However, watch your trends. They matter. On weeks following a top-5 fantasy finish this season, Brown has finished as the WR98 and WR72 the following weeks.
• His target percentage has trended up. But, we have to beg the question at some point as to whether Brown is getting good targets.
• According to PlayerProfiler, Brown’s catchable target rate is at 70.7% for the season. That’s good for 44th among wide receivers.

Fade: Zay Flowers vs. Cincinnati

• Since finishing as the WR1 Week 1, Flowers has averaged a mere 8.9 FPPG in half-point PPR formats.
• He’s averaged five catches for 61 yards in that 10-game span. Solid, but unspectacular numbers.
• Flowers is the type of player we don’t want in fantasy. Great for a regular football team, but used between the 20s in fantasy purposes. That’s a recipe for a middling producer, which is exactly what he’s been this season.

Tight End

Play: Taysom Hill vs. Miami

• This isn’t a targets argument in the least. This is, very simply, an Alvin Kamara injury argument.
• Hill carried the ball 10 times for 17 yards last week.
• He might be cooked. But, if you can find any other tight end on the board this week with rushing touchdown upside please let me know.
• This is the low-hanging fruit we all live for that might be poisoned.

Play: Colston Loveland @ Philadelphia

• This isn’t a particularly generous spot for Loveland. Philly is notoriously nasty against tight ends.
• Yet, Loveland is being rated as a mid-tier TE2 this week.
• With the upside he possesses, it’s hard to pass on a guy who has an emerging snap share and a strong profile.

Play: Brenton Strange @ Tennessee

• Meet your new second option in Jacksonville’s passing attack.
• Strange was electric with a five reception, 93-yard game last week against Arizona.
• I love opportunity and with Jakobi Meyers still getting acclimated, this is another good spot for Strange to shine this week.

Fade: Dallas Goedert vs. Chicago

• Goedert is an underrated boom-or-bust option. At his best, he can finish as TE1 in fantasy. At his worst, he’s TE32 & 34 like the past couple weeks.
• Chicago does a good job against tight ends, and we may finally be seeing signs of life elsewhere in this passing game.
• I’m passing on the risk of Goedert being a third or fourth passing option on this team this week.

Fade: Juwan Johnson @ Miami

• We’re going to discuss this more in a bit when we get to D/ST.
• But this Saints offense isn’t overly efficient right now and while Johnson has been a steady offensive floor, his best fantasy days are when he is scoring touchdowns.
• Miami has been generous to tight ends this season. Those numbers have been inflated by playing Buffalo twice and giving up a 32-point performance to Baltimore tight ends. The matchup isn’t as good as it seems.

Fade: Cade Otton vs. Arizona

• His ceiling isn’t especially high against an Arizona defense that defends the position well.
• However, even with 12 targets and being the only tight end that is used in Tampa’s offense Otton has turned in TE28 & 25 finishes in back-to-back games.

D/ST

Play: Atlanta vs. N.Y. Jets

• Atlanta’s pass rush has found some heat since moving James Pearce and Jalon Walker.
• The pair has taken this Atlanta defense to another level on splash plays.
• With the Jets being an offense that is struggling to find identity, that pass rush should lead you to more fantasy points this week.

Play: Miami vs. New Orleans

• Miami hasn’t set the world on fire defensively this year. But, it’s a situation where you have to like the optics.
• While the Saints have looked better since Tyler Shough took over at quarterback, it’s still not an offense that is setting the world on fire.
• Its offensive leader last week was Chris Olave, who we previously discussed in this article. With Olave being a high-volume and low efficiency guy and no Alvin Kamara, the Saints offense is a ripe spot to get some turnovers this week.

Play: L.A. Chargers vs. Las Vegas

• This is getting redundant.
• It seems like every week we’re picking on the Raiders offense. But it’s a unit that has only been 15th or better in weekly total offense in five of their 11 games this season.
• Brock Bowers might be good. What he hasn’t been is elite this season and neither has Jeanty. No elite producers = smart money that elite production won’t happen.

Fade: Philadelphia vs. Chicago

• Philly gave up 41 fantasy points to Dallas last week and another 15.5 to tight ends.
• Caleb Williams has taken a big leap this year and is averaging near 20 FPPG. I like Chicago’s weapons and with Philly struggling at times to defend receivers I like Chicago’s chances at breaking a couple big plays.

Fade: Tampa Bay vs. Arizona

• A defense that is bad against QBs, RBs and WRs gets a team with a quarterback that has been on a heater over the past six weeks.
• I know Brissett is turnover prone. But, as mentioned before, his floor is safe and he’s made this Arizona offense one that has been a top-5 unit each of the last three weeks. They’re humming, and that’s never good if you’re defending something like that.

Fade: Cleveland vs. San Francisco

• It’s been a solid unit all season that is a top-10 best defense against quarterbacks and running backs.
• Here’s the complication: they’re more of a middle-of-the-road unit against wide receivers and tight ends.
• This could be a big George Kittle day and, frankly, the questions around Cleveland’s offense may put this defense in more of a spot to have to do more and therefore be in more positions to give up big plays.

Thank you for checking out my 2025 Plays & Fades for Week 13. I hope you found it helpful and enjoyed it as much as I enjoyed putting it together. Best of luck in Week 13, and let’s get those wins!

Rhett Manuel is a FantasyPros ECR ranker, writer, and podcaster for FANTASY IN FRAMES, specializing in Redraft and Dynasty Fantasy Football. Follow him on Twitter/X at @RManuelSports. You can find more of his work here at FANTASY IN FRAMES by clicking here.