2025 Plays & Fades for Week 15

Rhett Manuel

December 10, 2025

Welcome to our 2025 Plays & Fades for Week 15!

We’ve finally made it. It’s playoff time in fantasy football.

So, rather than a traditional play and fade … for the remainder of the season, we want to give you something as actionable as possible.

I, Rhett Manuel, am striving to give you a safe-ish play, an actual ceiling call, and a true floor play for the remaining weeks.

The goal? To make sure you get as broad a spectrum as possible to fill exactly the hole you need to fill in your lineup.

Sounds simple. But, this is where the money is made. So, let’s try to make you some this week and going forward …

* Stats courtesy of the good folks over at PFF, Fantasy Points Data Suite, FantasyData.com, Player Profiler, The Fantasy Footballers, and FTN Fantasy. Fantasy point references will be made from Half-PPR scoring*

Quarterbacks

Take A Chance: Sam Darnold vs. Indianapolis

Darnold has been a solid, not exceptional, option all season in averaging around 15 FPPG.
But where he shines is that connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. No one has been more explosive in the passing game this season. According to PlayerProfiler, Darnold is #1 among quarterbacks in Passing Explosive Rating.
He’s averaged 27.2 attempts per game and has found the big play regularly.
Against a Colts defense that gives up about 15.7 FPPG to QBs and an uncertain offense this week without Daniel Jones, it’s a solid place for us to hang our hats.

Go for Broke: Shadeur Sanders @ Chicago

This is one of those “I’m in the playoffs, and I gotta do something crazy” type of plays.
But Shadeur is beginning to flash after last week’s 364 yards and four total touchdowns.
They’re letting him throw the ball pretty freely, though, and that’s an encouraging sign.
You can’t get more boom-or-bust. But, if you’re chasing upside, this is one of those matchups and plays you should at least be entertaining.

Play it Safe: Lamar Jackson @ Cincinnati

Due to injuries, Lamar may not have been LAMAR this season, ranking QB16 in FPPG.
But this Cincinnati matchup is precisely what the doctor ordered. The Bengals give up 21.5 FPPG to the position. It’s plush on paper.
That, plus the fact that Cincinnati’s defense has been historically bad in EPA this season (+.17 for offenses), means that the Ravens should be rolling offensively this week.

Fade: Patrick Mahomes vs. L.A. Chargers

We’ve all enjoyed this Kansas City and Mahomes offensive renaissance this season. But last week’s defensive showing by the Chargers was alarming.
That, coupled with the fact that K.C. doesn’t particularly push the ball downfield and relies on Kareem Hunt near the goalline, somewhat caps Mahomes’ upside.
The Chiefs are also in the bottom 10 in total offensive plays per game.
They’re playing slower, and the Chargers are causing havoc. It’s not an ideal situation.

Fade: Bo Nix vs. Green Bay

Nix has a tough matchup and a low average Depth of Target.
Given the way Sean Payton’s offenses are built, Nix is an excellent real-life option but limits his upside.
Nix is a mid-level QB2 in fantasy points per dropback and probably needs 35-40 attempts per game to threaten true QB1 potential.
With R.J. Harvey’s emergence over the past few weeks and Nix’s penchant to throw it underneath, it limits his upside.

Fade: Jacoby Brissett @ Houston

As a Brissett believer, this hurts me.
But the Texans allow fewer than 200 passing yards per game.
The Cards have thrown it a ton, but the low aDOT and the lack of explosive plays against a defense like Houston’s make this a tough sell.
Brissett has been fairly touchdown-reliant, so I don’t see it being a strong week there this week either.

Running Back

Take a Chance: TreVeyon Henderson vs. Buffalo

Buffalo is a top-5 matchup for running backs, allowing 135.2 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry.
They’re also ranked 31st in both yards before and after contact.
Henderson has been strong over the past four weeks and has had increased usage.
He makes himself an ideal high upside guy this week based on Buffalo’s weak run defense.

Go for Broke: Kenny Gainwell vs. Miami

Gainwell’s rushing upside is usually hit-or-miss. But we can never question the passing volume. He had six catches on seven targets last week. In half-PPR formats, those receptions are like gold.
There have been moments where Gainwell has led this backfield and others where he’s taken a backseat to Jaylen Warren.
But again, he averages 7.3 yards after the catch.
He’s got juice in the passing game and, at minimum, a clear role.
If upside is what you need, he’s a solid flex guy to consider this week.

Play it Safe: Travis Etienne Jr. vs. N.Y. Jets

Etienne has averaged 4.7 YPC this year, while the Jets are giving up 4.4 YPC.
In his career, and usually when the Jets have been stronger defensively, Etienne has averaged 74 rushing yards per game against them.
If Etienne hits his career averages against the Jets, you’re looking at a guy who is at least a safe RB2 play this week.
He’s been as reliable as they’ve come this season, both in role and production. I’d feel good about those patterns continuing.

Fade: James Cook @ New England

The Pats are a top-3 run defense in the league, allowing less than 90 yards per game.
Cook has been a true game-changer this season with over 1200 rushing yards.
But New England has the goods to funnel to the passing game.
It might be a spot to look more into guys like Josh Allen and Dalton Kincaid this week.

Fade: Kyren Williams vs. Detroit

Much has been made of Detroit’s defense this season, but they allowed just under 100 yards per game.
Over his career, Williams has only logged 31 carries for 111 yards in two games against the Lions. He’s only averaged 3.6 YPC.
We can’t keep Blake Corum in the box any longer, either. The Rams are taking a hot-hand approach, with the split being 13-12 in carries last week in favor of Williams.
Regardless, Corum is a threat to his rushing upside in the future.

Fade: Breece Hall @ Jacksonville

Again, an elite run defense plays a guy who has been pretty good this season.
Hall is tipping the scales around RB20 but plays elite run defense, allowing under 90 yards per game.
Much of Breece’s upside is contingent on big plays, and Jacksonville does a good job of limiting both those and touchdowns.

Wide Receiver

Take a Chance: Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Washington

Robinson leads the Giants with 73 receptions and 828 yards. The role is safe, and the targets are there.
He’s also averaged 74 air yards per gam,e and he’s got a 28 percent target share.
Even at his worst, those sorts of numbers project out to a game that will give you a safe floor of 6-8 catches for around 50-70 yards. They won’t change your world, but as a floo,r they’re good enough to keep you in the playoff fight.

Go for Broke: Brian Thomas Jr. vs. N.Y. Jets

BTJ has hurt most of us this season, but what he still is is a threat for a big play on any given Sunday.
His target floor is still solid, averaging 6.9 targets per game.
With his usage and the emergence of Etienne, Jakobi Meyers, and Brenton Strange, BTJ is the quintessential go-big-or-get eliminated play this week.

Play it Safe: Puka Nacua vs. Detroit

92.6 receiving yards per game in an offense that is consolidated around him and Davante Adams. It’s about as safe as you can get.
Even with a recent regression, Nacua has still averaged 6.4 receptions and 80 yards per game.
The touchdowns haven’t been there this season, so TD regression isn’t a concern in his profile.
Ride one of the apples of the MVP Frontrunner’s eye. It makes too much sense not to at this point.

Fade: Rashee Rice vs. L.A. Chargers

We saw last week’s chaos, and the fact that the Chargers give up about 185 passing yards per game doesn’t bode well for a Rice bounce-back.
Rashee is a high-usage, low-aDOT guy. Meaning, he has to get a lot of practical work and make it happen after the catch. At 11.6 yards per reception this year, it gives you the idea that he is a volume-play.
Pure volume is GREAT in full-PPR formats. In half-PPR, we need more explosion than Rice is potentially offering against an elite pass unit.

Fade: Christian Watson @ Denver

Christian Watson’s fantasy profile is built on deep targets, explosive plays, and touchdowns.
Denver ain’t playing that. They’re a top-5 unit in giving up the least explosive plays, top 6 in lowest aDOT, and bottom 5 in opponents’ yards per completion.
It screams short and horizontal, and makes a player like Romeo Doubs a safer play this week.

Fade: Michael Pittman Jr. @ Seattle

On average, Seattle gives up about 21.5% fewer fantasy points to WRs than the rest of the league. (15.7 vs. 20). It’s been even tougher the past five weeks, giving up only 12.3 when the league average has been 18.9. In percentages, Seattle has been about 35 percent better than the league average.
Pittman thrives on high usage, but serious questions at the quarterback position this week hamper his upside.
Based on the matchup and situation, there’s a strong case to find a bench option to replace Pittman with in your lineups this week.

Tight End

Take a Chance: Theo Johnson vs. Washington

The way Washington plays defense suggests a strong funnel towards tight ends.
They give up a high target share to the middle of the field, give up high catch rates on safer routes, and struggle with YAC against big tight ends.
Given how Dart targets Theo, this seems like a slam-dunk play. He has high route participation, is a regular redzone target, and has been a 5-7 target guy with Dart on the field.
He’s a guy I’m starting with, and I’m starting with confidence right now.

Go for Broke: Isaiah Likely @ Cincinnati

Baltimore has Andrews for reliability and Likely for big-play ability.
Likely is an elite YPRR tight end, and his fantasy points per route run are among the tops in the league.
He’s emerged in the last couple of weeks. But, the variance in usage can make Likely a guy who gets three targets or one who gets eight with a touchdown.
Whether you roll those dice depends on your needs.

Play it Safe: Harold Fannin Jr. @ Chicago

Since Shadeur has taken over at quarterback, the tight end has been heavily used in Cleveland.
Sanders relies on rhythm, the middle of the field, and getting the ball out quickly.
It leads to a TE-friendly offense, and no one has benefited more than Fannin.
This is the anti-Likely. It’s not big plays and long touchdowns. It’s steady and consistent targets that lead to safer production.

Fade: Oronde Gadsden vs. Kansas City

This isn’t the two-week unicorn we saw at the start.
Gadsden has talent, but his profile for success is built on securing a decent target share, some red-zone efficiency, and his athleticism.
Kansas City is built to force boundary throws and lower percentage throws. That, effectively, schemes out a good bit of the Charger passing game.
A bonus fade for Justin Herbert this week, who can win with his arm, but this doesn’t feel like the week to do so.

Fade: Colston Loveland vs. Cleveland

With the way Loveland’s usage has played out, he likely needs 6-8 weekly targets to make himself worthwhile in fantasy.
Chicago isn’t using his athleticism up the field, meaning that explosive plays aren’t really an option. It limits his YPRR, his touchdown potential, and his ability to get loose on a busted play.
He’s been up and down since he emerged as the Bears’ TE1.
Inconsistency in the playoffs isn’t where I want to look primarily.

Fade: Darren Waller @ Pittsburgh

In recent weeks, Miami has crowded out passing upside in favor of the run.
They’re going to rely on the run game if ahead, and if behind, they’re going to look towards Waddle for a big play.
Mike McDaniel’s offense hasn’t traditionally supported a tight end for fantasy, so Waller’s spikes earlier this season should be treated as an anomaly and not the rule.

D/ST

Take a Chance: New Orleans vs. Carolina

Don’t look now, but the Saints are a top-half NFL defense and are playing a matchup-friendly offense this week.
Carolina allows both a high-pressure rate and sack rate, while Bryce Young hasn’t quite shaken the turnover bug.
Furthermore, the Panthers are inefficient in the red zone and tend to stall our drives.
Translation: the Saints are in a position to put themselves in fantasy point-scoring scenarios this week with this matchup.

Go for Broke: N.Y. Giants vs. Washington

The Commanders are very capable of moving the football, but also like to be aggressive offensively.
With their offensive line shaky, the Giants have an opportunity to generate sacks, strip fumbles, and interceptions.
Again, these are high-leverage plays that lend themselves to fantasy points for defensive units.

Play it Safe: Jacksonville vs. N.Y. Jets

The Jets are an offensive unit that gives up a lot of pressure, isn’t very explosive, and plays conservatively in the passing game.
Low efficiency and a bad offensive line mean your defense is likely not giving up a ton of points.
Jacksonville can and will apply pressure with four-man rushes, so it’s likely this will lead to multiple sacks.

Fade: Denver vs. Green Bay

As good as Denver is defensively, Green Bay’s play style makes it a dangerous team to start a defense against.
The Packers are built on running the football, spreading the ball around, and stretching defenses at multiple levels.
As good as Denver is defensively, they’ll have a hard time doing it all. Heck, any defense does.

Fade: L.A. Rams vs. Detroit

We know the story with Detroit’s offense. They’re talented, they’re efficient, and Goff doesn’t get them into trouble.
The Lions are one of the better teams in the league at staying in front of the sticks, minimizing their chances of third-and-longs and inefficient calls.
We know who Jared Goff is. He’s a rhythm throw, quick-release guy. The Rams thrive on defensive line pressure, which makes that part of their game ineffective.

Fade: Dallas vs. Minnesota

In this week’s research, I’ve learned that offensive line play matters a great deal to D/ST questions.
No one is questioning whether Minnesota is an elite offense. They aren’t. But, they won’t give you cheap plays, and they’ll keep the ball in the hands of their reliable running backs.
At McCarthy’s best, he is eliminating mistakes. At his worst, he’s not giving you tons of opportunities for defensive splash plays because they’re trying to protect their efficiency.
That makes Dallas a risky option, despite Minnesota not being an elite offense.

Thank you for checking out my 2025 Plays & Fades for Week 15. I hope you found it helpful and enjoyed it as much as I enjoyed putting it together. Best of luck in Week 15, and let’s get those wins!

Rhett Manuel is a FantasyPros ECR ranker, writer, and podcaster for FANTASY IN FRAMES, specializing in Redraft and Dynasty Fantasy Football. Follow him on Twitter/X at @RManuelSports. You can find more of his work here at FANTASY IN FRAMES by clicking here.