2025 Plays & Fades for Week 16

Welcome to our 2025 Plays & Fades for Week 16!

The playoffs are alive and well in fantasy football. Whether you like it or not.

This is the point in the season when there aren’t safe decisions, only ones that win or lose matchups for you.

You got this far by making it to the playoffs and advancing a round. We KNOW your roster is good enough. But, this time of year, wires are thin, and your lineup choices either put you in the money or waste time.

One wrong call and you’re cooked … it’s that simple.

Injuries like Patrick Mahomes tearing his ACL didn’t help matters either. Add in late-season wear-and-tear, snap counts, and weather, and your projections can fly out the window.

That’s where I come in. This isn’t the gospel about who WILL be good. My only goal is actionable advice about surviving and advancing this week.

Money talks, and fortune favors the bold.

Let’s get it …

* Stats courtesy of the good folks over at PFF, Fantasy Points Data Suite, FantasyData.com, Player Profiler, The Fantasy Footballers, and FTN Fantasy. Fantasy point references will be made from Half-PPR scoring*

Quarterbacks

Take a Chance: C.J. Stroud vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• I’m not sure we’ll ever get back to Year 1 Stroud. But this version is fine for your needs.
• Stroud hasn’t been flashy, but a steady guy all season long. He’s coming off one of his better games of the year last week: 260 yards and three touchdowns.
• In playing a middle-of-the-road Vegas defense and backed up by a struggling running game, Stroud’s red-zone opportunities should see a significant uptick, considering that 10 of his 15 passing touchdowns this season have come inside the red zone.

Go for Broke: J.J. McCarthy at N.Y. Giants

• Fellow FIF’er Kyle Zeigler has outlined the McCarthy argument against bad teams beautifully.
• When McCarthy plays units that, for lack of a better way of putting it, are worse, it’s correlated into spike weeks.
• The Giants are the second-best matchup for quarterbacks, and against Washington and Dallas over the last couple of weeks, McCarthy has finished as QB10 and QB8, with five passing touchdowns in that span.
• It’s such a small sample size. But it’s translated into McCarthy being about 14% more accurate and throwing touchdowns at a significantly higher rate. This is another matchup made in go-for-broke heaven.

Play it Safe: Jalen Hurts at Washington Commanders

• We all know and understand the Hurts profile. He provides a strong rushing floor with hit-or-miss passing days. His completion percentage is hovering around 65% this season, making him a safer passing option than in years past.
• After a disaster in Week 14, Hurts took his frustration out on Vegas and threw three touchdowns while providing his usual 40-yard rushing floor.
• Washington is another soft defensive matchup, being the fifth-easiest matchup for quarterbacks.

Fade: Dak Prescott vs. L.A. Chargers

• A little-known fact: Dak Prescott feasts on lower-level defenses and tends to struggle a little more against good units. Clearly, the Chargers are a good unit.
• Dak is, of course, a high-yardage quarterback. However, high yardage QBs with limited rushing upside are touchdown-dependent.
• You’re not starting Dak Prescott. But please think about supplementing a normally high floor with a little more upside in flex spots this week.

Fade: Brock Purdy at Indianapolis Colts

• Brock Purdy is a fantastic real-life quarterback. He’s excellent when his pocket is clean, as evidenced by his top-10 EPA per dropback with a clean pocket.
• However, his Completion Percentage over Expected fluctuates from game to game. This type of accuracy issue is a red flag, indicating we’re dealing with a matchup-dependent guy.
• Purdy isn’t especially mobile, so Hurts safety net isn’t there for a player like him.
• San Francisco likes to lean on its run game in the red zone, again limiting Purdy’s upside.

Fade: Lamar Jackson vs. New England Patriots

• We know the Jackson profile. Chunk runs and long touchdown passes = big fantasy days.
• But if there’s one thing New England does well, it’s limiting the rushing efficiency of a running quarterback.
• Lamar is still a solid floor play.
• But against a defense like this, where they’re going to limit his rushing upside and try to force the Ravens into long drives, the ability of Lamar Jackson to supply chunk plays will be limited.

Running Backs

Take a Chance: Qunshon Judkins vs. Buffalo Bills

• Judkins might be outside the top-12, but a bad quarterback situation and a safe role make him as safe as anybody. He’s been pretty game-script proof, a sign of stability.
• Buffalo won’t allow a big rushing play, but plenty of smaller plays. This plays well into Judkins’ volume, where a slew of 4-8 yard carries can add up to a 75-90 yard rushing day.
• Judkins is very good after contact and is a red-zone guy.
• If it plays according to script, Judkins is in line for a 15-point type of day, which is huge for your lineups.

Go for Broke: Evan Hull vs. N.Y. Jets

• You wanna go bankrupt or hit a payday? Hull is your guy. We’re monitoring the Devin Neal situation. If he’s a go, this is an entirely null-and-void situation.\
• But, if Neal is a no-go, Hull will take a step into meaningful work based on his split of snaps last week with Audric Estime.
• They’re stepping into a situation with a Jets defense that has been prone to big days, including 239 yards to the Miami Dolphins recently. They give up about 4.4 yards per carry as well.
• There’s enough runway with this Jets defense and possibility with injury to make Hull an intriguing flex guy this week. As the ECR RB69, it’s a free space on your roster.

Play it Safe: Bijan Robinson at Arizona Cardinals

• The Cardinals have given up well over 100 rushing yards per game this season, and Bijan’s floor and usage are as safe as anyone’s in fantasy.
• He’s rarely below 20 opportunities per week, and his ability to be a factor in both the run and pass games remains huge for his upside.
• Trends suggest that backs with Bijan’s usage profile are safe bets for 70-100 rushing yards and 3-5 targets per game, no matter what.

Fade: Derrick Henry vs. New England Patriots

• New England’s run defense has only given up 3.8 yards per carry this season and gives up only about 15.5 FPPG to the position. They limit chunk runs and ultimately, output from linebackers.
• Henry is what he is. His receiving floor has almost always been nonexistent.
• This Patriots defense tends to force offenses in passing situations, which explains why they seem gettable in the passing game.
• Ultimately, the scheme and their ability to stop the run limit who Henry is without a passing game upside against this unit. 

Fade: Kyren Williams at Seattle Seahawks

• Kyren has been one of the most stable and predictable backs in the NFL over the past three seasons. That said, that predictability extends to the Seahawks, against whom he’s averaged only 44 rushing yards per game in his career.
• Extending that, they’re the fourth-toughest matchup for running backs in schedule-adjusted fantasy points this season.
• They’re giving up 91.6 yards per game as a unit this season.
• Kyren does provide pass-catching, but the Seahawks allow only 191.4 passing yards per game. That’s seventh best as a team.

Fade: Woody Marks vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• Vegas is by no means a monolith of defense, but they are middle of the pack defensively in giving up 119 rushing yards per game.
• That, coupled with Houston’s 23rd-best rushing offense and Marks getting plenty of volume but minimal production, makes me skeptical.
• Marks could get plenty of work while the Texans are ahead. But that doesn’t necessarily mean production for him, as evidenced by his 3.5 yards per carry and season-long run of 23 yards.

Wide Receivers

Take a Chance: Ladd McConkey at Dallas Cowboys

• We know the Dallas scouting report by now—friendliest defense to wide receivers with a pair of high-risk cornerbacks.
• Ladd has accounted for 22% of L.A.’s air yards and has an aDOT of 9.5 yards and a 62 percent catch rate. He’s a slot-plus with downfield upside.
• Ladd’s in a spot against Dallas where 6-8  targets provide him with real upside this week.

Go for Broke: Rashid Shaheed vs. L.A. Rams

• Shaheed is finally getting footing in the Seahawks’ offense and has 13 receptions for 173 yards and four touchdowns in his career against the Rams.
• Those aren’t elite numbers, but that was also with a Derek Carr-fueled Saints offense.
• The Rams rank in the middle of the pack in pass defense and tend to give up the big play this season.
• If there’s a big play guy, it’s Shaheed, and the attention drawn by Jaxon Smith-Njigba should allow him to get loose.
• There’s real long touchdown upside for Shaheed this week.

Play it Safe: Ja’Marr Chase at Miami Dolphins

• The Tee Higgins injury has made what’s already been obvious even moreso – this is a Chase-driven offense.
• Chase’s usage floor is going nowhere, and when you’re playing a league-average pass defense with one of the worst rushing offenses in football, you can see where it’s heading.
• He’s your rare floor AND upside player.
• This isn’t worth overthinking. You’re starting him anyway. 20+ points is a reasonable expectation. Swing for some additional upside with the floor you’re getting out of Chase with one of your flex spots.

Fade: CeeDee Lamb at L.A. Chargers

• The Chargers are one of the league’s better pass defenses, and, historically, strong pass defenses limit volume and scoring opportunities for top receivers.
• However, Lamb is also limited by George Pickens. Pickens is third in the NFL in receiving yards this season, but both of them have struggled historically against the Chargers.
• The Chargers have held receivers under 20 points in four of the past six weeks.

Fade: Terry McLaurin vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• The Commanders have shut down Jayden Daniels for the season, and while that might be good news for Zach Ertz, it’s less promising for McLaurin.
• Couple in the fact that in four of the past six weeks, the Eagles have allowed under 15 fantasy points to wide receivers and under 10 each of the past two weeks, the trend suggests that the Eagles’ pass defense is tightening up at the right time.

Fade: Brian Thomas Jr. at Denver Broncos

• This is Denver’s defense, and while BTJ hasn’t been at his best this season, he did flash the talent we all love last week.
• But still, being shadowed by Pat Sutrain Jr. means an unlikely big day is ahead for him.
• BTJ isn’t consistently dominating air yards or targets in the Jags offense like he did last season. It’s another red flag towards a disappointing season.

Tight Ends

Take a Chance: Travis Kelce at Tennessee Titans

• Yes, he’ll be missing Patrick Mahomes. But Kelce still figures to be one of the primary targets in this offense.
• Keep in mind, backup quarterbacks are backups for a reason. Those progressions won’t happen as quickly, and Tennessee has been pretty good against tight ends this season.
• Still, Kelce’s first-read target share should be relatively large, and a positive game script could lend itself well to a nice day.

Go for Broke: Juwan Johnson vs. N.Y. Jets

• If there’s one thing Johnson has been this season, it’s been highly targeted in comparison to most tight ends in the NFL.
• He’s been a safe 5-7 target guy per game, and that lends itself to a safe floor most weeks.
• In his last five games, Johnson has had 23 receptions for 245 yards and a touchdown. Five receptions and 50 yards per game is close to TE1 range most weeks, and as a mid-range TE2, you’ve got an upside play here.

Play it Safe: Kyle Pitts Sr. at Arizona Cardinals

• With or without Drake London in the lineup, we’ve seen enough of Kyle Pitts this season to be comfortable with him as the second pass catcher in Atlanta’s offense.
• But over the past three weeks, we’ve seen three top-10 fantasy finishes and at least 82 yards in each game.
• Even without this three-game spike, Pitts was on pace for a 76 catch, 709-yard receiving season on 104 targets.
• 100-target tight ends aren’t easy to find.
• Pitts’ floor is safe, but his upside is unreal. Start with confidence against Arizona.

Fade: Brock Bowers at Houston Texans

• Bowers has been inconsistent all season, but now he’s seeing an elite defense on top of that.
• Houston suppresses passing games at all levels and looks to do the same against Bowers.
• Yes, Houston gave up a monster game to Trey McBride. But McBride ate on multiple coverage breakdowns and screens. In other words, they schemed for McBride’s success.
• Bowers has a different usage and route profile than McBride and less help offensively.
• Houston should be able to key on him and limit his upside.

Fade: Tyler Warren vs. San Francisco 49ers

• Warren got off to a great start, but that’s begun to taper off as the second half of the year has worn on. Fatigue? New quarterback?
• Last week, he had only three receptions and 19 yards. There’s real volatility here right now, and possibly touchdown dependency to deliver a good day.
• With San Francisco being a ball-control team, opportunities should be limited for Warren this week.

Fade: Mark Andrews vs. New England Patriots

• Andrews has scored just 21.2 fantasy points in the past five games and managed just 11 receptions on 22 targets.
• He’s at one of his lowest target shares in years and suggests a middle-of-the-pack tight end, not an elite one.
• The Patriots allow the 7^th-fewest yards per target to the position, so big plays should be limited as well.

D/ST

Take a Chance: Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

• Jacksonville thrives on pressure and takeaways. They’ve got a high-pressure rate and have created a fair bit of turnovers over the second half of the season.
• Jacksonville plays at a slower pace, so that should also limit Denver’s total offensive plays. Fewer plays = fewer yardage = fewer big play potential.

Go for Broke: Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• First, there’s no Mahomes here. That, in theory, makes K.C. more turnover prone on principle.
• But, they’ve given up a higher pressure rate this year anyway—Mahomes or not.
• With a backup quarterback, there’s an increased opportunity for more pressure and possibly turnovers. It’s a nice spot to be in if you want to roll the dice.

Play it Safe: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

• Again, I love pressure rates as a predictive measure for fantasy success.
• Philly gets to the quarterback, hits the quarterback, and creates sacks without blitzes.
• Washington gives up plenty of sacks, and Mariota is a risk with the ball.
• There’s a good recipe for a safe floor of 7-10 D/ST points from Philly this week.

Fade: San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts

• Daniel Jones or not, there are explosive players in this Colts offense.
• They’re going to lean on Johnathan Taylor, meaning that the turnover risk will be lower.
• Fewer passing plays = fewer turnover chances, fewer sack chances, shorter games.

Fade: Dallas Cowboys vs. L.A. Chargers

• Another day, another anti-Dallas argument.
• They’ve been much better against the run, but this is still a bad pass defense and the most friendly in most passing categories.
• Expect a pass-heavy approach, and the Chargers have the weapons to take advantage of that as well.

Fade: Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Tampa gets it. They’ve got weapons on all levels and a low sack rate because Baker gets the ball off quickly.
• They love the screen game and use their guys to their advantage.
• This, along with a weak Carolina pass defense, makes it a good recipe to fade the Panthers’ defense this week.
• They don’t cover the slot well, and Tampa has the guys to spread the Carolina defense out.
• Quick concepts also mean fewer turnovers.

Thank you for checking out my 2025 Plays & Fades for Week 16. I hope you found it helpful and enjoyed it as much as I enjoyed putting it together. Best of luck in Week 16, and let’s get those wins!

Rhett Manuel is a FantasyPros ECR ranker, writer, and podcaster for FANTASY IN FRAMES, specializing in Redraft and Dynasty Fantasy Football. Follow him on Twitter/X at @RManuelSports. You can find more of his work here at FANTASY IN FRAMES by clicking here.