2025 Plays & Fades for Week 17

Welcome to our 2025 Plays & Fades for Week 17!

Week 16 gave us a harsh reminder: Fantasy Football doesn’t give a damn about your projections, your spreadsheets, or how good your team looked in October.

Last week, hearts were broken by dropped passes, last-minute touchdowns, and injury news that broke before the noon slate of games. Your Infinity Stone vanished. A role player stepped up. Your depth outscored your starter, and somewhere, somehow, Cinderella and her six-seed are sitting in the finals this week.

So, what will you do about it?

Week 17 is Championship Week in most of your leagues, and the safety net is gone. No more “we’ll bounce back. Every decision matters this week, every matchup is magnified, and every decision can either get you that trophy or have you loathing yourself for a year.

We can overthink this. Or, we can use data and a season’s worth of understanding to make the best decisions possible to get you in the money.

So, we’re playing and fading for the money this week. Chips on the table. All-in baby.

Let’s go get that ring!

* Stats courtesy of the good folks over at PFF, Fantasy Points Data Suite, FantasyData.com, Player Profiler, The Fantasy Footballers, and FTN Fantasy. Fantasy point references will be made from Half-PPR scoring*

Quarterbacks

Take a Chance: Jaxson Dart @ Las Vegas

• We’ve seen Dart thrive when structure breaks down. He’s at his best when he’s got a 50+-yard rushing day.
• It’s the type of defense in Vegas that can lead to Dart having a lovely day off-script.
• I know the Giants are bad, but we know rushing quarterbacks build in their ceilings and floors.
• With the proper game script, Dart is a nice play to outdo his QB14 ranking this week.

Go for Broke: Cam Ward @ New Orleans

• Cam started slow, but has adjusted to the NFL as the season has worn on.
• He has the ability to beat you with his arm or legs, but they’re likely to be playing from behind.
• Against the Saints, who have played pretty well all season, there’s a window where a couple of busted plays lead to a 40-yard rushing day, and Ward has thrown for multiple touchdowns more often than not in the second half of the season.

Play it Safe: Dak Prescott @ Washington

• We know who Dallas is. It’s a high dropback team that loves its receivers.
• Washington isn’t a pressure-based defense, which leads to a clean pocket.
• Give Prescott time and a good set of weapons, and it’s looking rough for Washington.

Fade: Brock Purdy vs. Chicago

• This is a prime CMC game. It might even be a prime Jennings game; it’s not a prime Purdy game.
• Chicago loves forcing a long drive and limiting vertical shots.
• We’ve said it before. These are the types of games that limit QBs with limited mobility.
• He’s not a high TD rate guy, so San Francisco’s touchdown upside is unpredictable.

Fade: Josh Allen vs. Philadelphia

• As good as Allen is, this is a low-key nightmare for him.
• They love pressuring with four and forcing guys off their first read, leading to a lower aDOT.
• Yes, Allen can scramble and get yardage that way, but Philly tends to show excellent edge discipline and good linebacker spying.
• The receiver position has become a problem in Buffalo, and it caps their big play potential in the pass game as well.

Fade: Kirk Cousins vs. L.A. Rams

• The Rams will pressure quarterbacks, and Cousins’ efficiency will drop under pressure.
• Los Angeles is always strong on the interior, and a collapsing pocket with an immobile quarterback is a recipe for disaster.
• That, and the Rams forcing low-ceiling throws, will limit Cousins’ yardage output this week.

Running Backs

Take a Chance: Rhamondre Stevenson @ N.Y. Jets

• The Tre’Veyon concussion opened the door for Rhamondre to return to bellcow status.
• He’s going to get the run and pass snaps and a likely snap share over 70 percent.
• In a neutral or negative game script, there is still a strong chance Rhamondre returns a big week this week.

Go for Broke: Kyle Monangai @ San Francisco

• Monangai is firmly in a timeshare with D’Andre Swift, and that’s fine.
• But he does have a role, with 11 or more touches in each of the last six weeks.
• At his best, he’s been the hot hand who’s gotten multiple RB1 weeks this season.
• In a game with a high over/under (52.5), points are expected. It’s a solid spot for Monangai to be a play away from a huge week.

Play it Safe: Chase Brown vs. Arizona

• Chase is the dude in that offense in the run game. Secure touch floor, and is a rare three-down guy. You gotta love it.
• He’s a safe bet for 15 carries and 3-5 receptions. If you assume 85 total yards and a possible touchdown, this is a 15-20 point week waiting to happen. That’s huge in championship week.

Fade: Bijan Robinson vs. L.A. Rams

• The Rams are an elite unit at limiting big plays.
• We know Bijan will have the usage profile, but when yards before contact shrink, running backs tend shrink is usefulness.

Fade: Johnathan Taylor vs. Jacksonville

• Taylor is an explosive player, and the Jags shrink explosive run rates.
• Jacksonville likes loading the box and daring the quarterback to beat them.
• I know Rivers is fun right now, but asking him to beat Jacksonville is a tall ask.
• I do expect volume from Taylor, but low production this week.

Fade: Jaylen Warren @ Cleveland

• I currently hate predicting this Pittsburgh backfield. Is it a Warren or Gainwell week? Last week, it happened to be a both week.
• But Gainwell is the receiving option, and the Browns have a top-3 success rate against the run.
• Warren wins in space, and barring a snap share spike, it’s probably not a week where he thrives.

Wide Receivers

Take a Chance: Jauan Jennings vs. Chicago

• Jennings is on the field in three-WR sets for the Niners.
• He’s involved on third down, play-action game, and quick concepts.
• It’s an ideal big slot profile and works as a guy who will have a low bust rate.
• Chicago will want this thing to go to short completions. As a floor guy, it’s likely he sees 4-6 receptions and around 50-75 yards.

Go for Broke: Mack Hollins @ N.Y. Jets

• Hollins isn’t a fun play, but he’s capable of big plays and has seemingly earned some of Drake Maye’s trust as the season has gone on.
• Since Week 8, Hollins has earned 52 targets. That’s nearly seven per game. At WR46 this week, that’s more than sufficient volume to justify a flex plan.
• Over the past two weeks, that’s expanded to 8.5 targets per game.
• With questions in New England’s wide receiver room right now, it makes Hollins a nice upside play this week.

Play it Safe: Puka Nacua @ Atlanta

• We’re not garaging the Ferrari during championship week.
• Over the past three weeks, Nacua has finished WR 1, 2, and 1 and managed double-digit targets on all three weeks.
• It’s ridiculous how efficient Puka is. He’s only played 70 percent or more of snaps in six games this season.
• That volume and that efficiency? I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know.

Fade: Michael Wilson @ Cincinnati

• Marv is back, and McBride is healthy. Welcome back to third-read status, Michael Wilson.
• After some boom weeks, Wilson was reduced to four targets last week and was saved by a touchdown reception.
• We aren’t working our lineups around a TD-dependent receiver. That’s a poor process.

Fade: Adonai Mitchell vs. New England

• We know who Christian Gonzalez is, and we know what this Jets offense is. The Patriots are forcing you to win on checkdowns and tight-window throws. I don’t feel good about either of those for the Jets.
• New England wants to force you to the boundary as well, and that’s where Mitchell shines. It’s literally playing into New England’s pass defense strengths.

Fade: Justin Jefferson vs. Detroit

• Can we call it what it is? Jefferson’s name has protected him as a top-25 receiver weekly in rankings. He’s done very little to justify his current ranking these days.
• Jefferson does have upside against a Detroit defense that is generous at times. But the QB play and usage this season haven’t made Jefferson a must-start.
• It’s championship week, now isn’t the time to be rolling the dice for the Jettas breakout week. And if this is the week it happens, I’ll happily accept all the mean tweets from you.

Tight Ends

Take a Chance: Darren Waller vs. Tampa Bay

• Tampa likes to make sure you aren’t winning on the outside, and they’re not giving up big plays.
• Waller’s usage in Miami’s offense fits perfectly into that. When QBs are forced off the perimeter (Tampa’s M.O.), we go inside to the tight end.
• Waller has been surprisingly productive this season, and another 50-75 yard game with a possible touchdown shouldn’t be discounted this week.

Go for Broke: Taysom Hill @ Tennessee

• I know Hill isn’t the player he used to be. But, he’s still a package guy in the Saints offense.
• He operated as the Saints’ primary running back last week and even threw a touchdown pass.
• It’s impossible to ignore. When you can plug in a guy who can snake you points in other position groupings, you take that.

Play it Safe: Harold Fannin Jr. vs. Pittsburgh

• Shadeur Sanders is locked in with Fannin. He’s running a ton of routes and has a high target share.
• He’s become a big guy for Cleveland on third downs and when Sanders is pressured.
• Pittsburgh is willing to let you win underneath to suppress the deep game, so it’s a nice spot for Fannin to rack up another high-usage game.

Fade: George Kittle vs. Chicago

• There’s an ankle injury and possible hobbling to consider this week in a huge NFC playoff seeding game.
• To start, Kittle is famously boom-or-bust. His target rate can swing wildly from 10 percent up to 25 percent weekly.
• On top of that, the Bears allow the 10th-lowest target rate to tight ends.

Fade: Jake Ferguson vs. Washington

• Two high-end fantasy wide receivers have made the Ferguson profile shaky for weeks now.
• Washington isn’t a team that will blitz heavily, so with less pressure, it means fewer quick targets for Ferguson as well.

Fade: Dalton Schultz @ L.A. Chargers

• The Chargers tend to funnel targets away from tight ends. They allow the eighth-lowest target rate for the position.
• It results in a low aDoT for the position and tends to funnel checkdowns to running backs.
• Schultz is not a schemed-up red-zone guy for the Texans. Without red zone targets and with his usage, Schultz is more like a low-end tight end than a high-end one.

D/ST

Take a Chance: Cincinnati vs. Arizona

• Risky? Of course. But, at D/ST 18, it’s not exactly far-fetched.
• Brissett has been super solid all season. However, Cincinnati’s defense has outperformed its ranking this week (#18) each of the last five weeks, including three top-10 weeks.
• Couple that with Brissett’s penchant to make a few bad throws per game, and the Cardinals can roll up some passing yards and still have the Bengals roll up a nice day for you with some interceptions.

Go for Broke: Las Vegas vs. N.Y. Giants

• The Giants are precisely the type of offense built for defensive boom weeks in fantasy.
• They turn it over a ton, aren’t efficient on scripted pass plays, don’t score a ton, and get sacked often.
• This has made the Giants the type of team that, on average, generates 3.1 FPPG more per game than they usually would.

Play it Safe: Seattle @ Carolina

• Carolina has had moments offensively, but they’re still inefficient, aren’t very effective at scoring points, give up sacks, and turn it over a fair bit.
• Carolina’s bottom-5 offense yields 2.3 fantasy points above average per game. That’s huge.
• Seattle has shown an ability to get home with a four-man rush, allowing them to drop more back in coverage and putting a cap on Tet McMillon’s ceiling this week as well.

Fade: Tampa Bay at Miami

• Miami doesn’t seem like a matchup to avoid, but hear me out.
• They’re still efficient because of their weapons. They’re a top-5 unit in offensive EPA, a top-3 unit in explosive play rate, and a bottom-5 unit in turnover rate.
• They get the ball out quickly and keep defenses off balance with the RPO game, motion, and using pre-snap leverage.
• Tampa has to get there early, or they’re cooked.

Fade: Green Bay vs. Baltimore

• We know Baltimore is built on big plays, doesn’t allow many sacks, and doesn’t turn it over much.
• Give me those three things weekly, and it’s hard for me to bet on a defense to succeed.
• Add in a lack of Parsons, and it’s tough to see where the defensive upside is coming from for the Packers.

Fade: Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis

• Jacksonville might have a high pressure rate, but it doesn’t finish plays in terms of getting sacks.
• The Colts tend to play at a slower pace, with a quick-pass game and a run-heavy offense.
• Shrinking the game doesn’t bode well for Jacksonville’s defense to be particularly effective in racking up fantasy points this week.

Thank you for checking out my 2025 Plays & Fades for Week 17. I hope you found it helpful and enjoyed it as much as I enjoyed putting it together. Best of luck in Week 17, and let’s get those Fantasy Football Championships!

Rhett Manuel is a FantasyPros ECR ranker, writer, and podcaster for FANTASY IN FRAMES, specializing in Redraft and Dynasty Fantasy Football. Follow him on Twitter/X at @RManuelSports. You can find more of his work here at FANTASY IN FRAMES by clicking here.