Welcome to our breakdown of 22026 Rookie Quarterback Risers & Fallers After The NFL Draft!
The Draft has come and gone, but the fantasy season has just begun. This year’s Quarterback crop was light, but that does not make it any less interesting or worth watching! A class like this just means you may be able to find value in weird places.
It is Star Wars month! Unfortunately, this class did not leave us with a true “chosen one” at the QB position, but did give a bunch of potentially fun secondary characters and even a couple of cult-heros from the background & NPCs. Many will want to ignore this crop as it is not as sexy as the Jedi-Master-potential types like in 2024. Even with a bunch of padawans who are less in-tune with the Force, many have landed with Masters (teams/coaches…. Super weird to say that about people, but we will BB-8 roll with the analogy) that gives us (a new) hope that they can stay strong with the light (fantasy points) and away from the dark side.
Let us at Fantasy In Frames help with the work, giving insight on tomorrow’s stars after the Draft! Whose stock has risen and whose has fallen? Let’s dive in, not only to QBs, but the rest of fantasy positions (below)!
Aidan Weingartner and I will be breaking down offensive prospects, which can be found here: Fantasy In Frames | ROOKIES
Check out IDP Hunter’s IDP risers & fallers here: Fantasy In Frames | IDP ROOKIES
We will have mock drafts here: Dynasty Mock Drafts | Fantasy In Frames
Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders – Stock Up
This is a pure dynasty stock up, as Mendoza seems likely to start the season on the bench behind Kirk Cousins. That move will give the first-overall pick some time to learn the NFL game, improving his long-term outlook. He is a strong fit in Klint Kubiak’s scheme, once he gets comfortable under-center. We did know this pick was going to happen, so calling it stock up is cheating a bit, but in a weak class we need to feel good about something!
The Raiders bolstered their OL and RB rooms with Trey Zhun III & Mike Washington Jr., adding more stability and explosiveness to an offense desperately needing just that. Mendoza has elite accuracy and is a willing, tight-window passer, which leads to big plays. Landing with Brock Bowers & Ashton Jeanty gives him a strong duo of playmakers to go with increasing depth and an improving OL. Mendoza has good athleticism, too, with 11 rush TDs in 33 games started (NFL pace of 5.67/season), allowing another facet to his fantasy game, even if he is not a Jayden Daniels-type. Jeremiyah Love will go 1.01 in most SF leagues, but with him landing in a weird spot, Mendoza is a reasonable top-pick.
Ty Simpson, Los Angeles Rams- Stock Up
Another dynasty-only stock up, as the best-case scenario is that Simpson does not see real snaps in 2026 (or 2027?) behind Matthew Stafford. The real reason for the stock up is the landing spot. Sitting with Sean McVay >>>> starting on day 1 with Arizona (his most commonly expected landing spot, even the morning of the draft). Simpson will have time to learn from the offensive wunderkind of the last decade and have an offense that can erase some of his faults.
Simpson became massively over-hated throughout the process, to the point that much of “draft-twitter” thought he was a 3rd rounder. Top-15 was a surprise, but the Rams liked him enough to shoot for their future QB. He is highly intelligent and has a plus arm and athleticism. The biggest concern with Simpson is the lack of starts. He went over 1,000 days between his final high school TD and his first collegiate one. He needs reps to iron out his issues, but he will not get them for at least a season.
Does being Sean McVay’s QB help even that out? Yes. But how much? Time will tell! For now, this is an ideal situation for him, with a loaded coaching staff and roster when he takes over. He still should be a first-round pick in SF leagues.
Carson Beck, Arizona Cardinals – Stock Up? Down? Sure, I guess.
Probably has to be up, as Beck will have a chance to start sometime in 2026. The player himself is a far-from-exciting prospect, but 65th overall is real capital, and teams expect to get starters in this range (though usually not at QB). Jacoby Brissett called the Cardinals’ bluff and is holding out. Gardner Minshew (off an ACL tear) is the other QB on the roster. Beck should be picked in dynasty leagues due to capital, and he clearly will have a shot this year. If he does become something, then he will be a great value for Arizona and your dynasty teams.
Now, how likely is it that he becomes something? My guess would be incredibly low… He processes poorly (despite 43 starts) and gets overwhelmed by pressure and changing looks. With an arm that has not fully healed from an injury in 2024, this is a player we struggle to fully back. However, he is a good point-and-shoot QB with the ability to lead a well-designed offense. The capital makes him a 2nd-rounder in SF leagues, but buyer beware.
Drew Allar, Pittsburgh Steelers – Stock Up
Allar was a controversial prospect in this process, a player with all the talent in the world but underwhelming film. Going in the mid-third round gives him a similar conversation as Beck, but the concerns are just as real. Allar is so robotic that he almost needs a redshirt year to fully adjust as a player who can use his massive arm and good mobility. He understands the game well, giving mental upside at the position as well (see the clip below). At that point, will the Steelers have tanked and be searching for a new, high-end QB?
If Aaron Rodgers returns, there will be no pressure for Allar to play. If Rodgers retires, there is a good chance Allar will be the best QB on the roster, despite his flaws. He would compete with Will Howard and Mason Rudolph for starts. The Steelers are a surprisingly good ecosystem, with a young but sturdy and improving offensive line, a good (albeit weird) receiving corps, and Mike McCarthy has done good work with QBs. Add in that the Steelers took him a round or two higher than many expected, and Allar’s stock is higher. Allar, I would take a shot on over Beck, with a better team, more talent, and pre-draft bias (cards on the table).
Cole Payton, Philadelphia Eagles – Stock Down(ish?)
Payton had a good, almost cult following (including by our own Drew, @Drew3MR), but fell in an incredibly weird spot. The Eagles have been a QB-hoarding factory over the past few years, taking one with developmental traits nearly every season. Payton will not have a chance to get reps as he is behind Jalen Hurts, Tanner McKee (who hopefully, finally, gets a shot next season), and Andy Dalton (I totally forgot about him, too). There was hope he could have a chance at play time in 2027, but that feels incredibly difficult here behind a few vets and a highly-paid Super Bowl champ.
Now, if he does get a chance, Philly is obviously a talented ecosystem. Even without AJ Brown, a corps of DeVonta Smith, Makai Lemon, Dallas Goedert, Eli Stowers, and Saquon Barkley is electric for a QB. The OL is shakier now, but still upper-echelon. Payton has to be a stock-down play, as it feels incredibly unlikely he gets a chance to prove anything other than late in preseason games. However, if the big-armed athlete is just the next Tanner McKee, then we may have a piece to be excited about in 2028/2029.
Garrett Nussmeier, Kansas City Chiefs – Stock Down
This one hurts a lot. Nussmeier went into the season as a top-15 pick, but ended up one of the last 15 picks. The injuries he suffered undermined his talent and reinforced concerns about his size and limited athletic ability. The post-Senior Bowl – where he was easily the best QB – process went poorly for him, with more medical concerns brought up and reported poor interviews. The talent is absolutely there, but going at 249 overall forces him to be stock down. Nuss still has great vision and a very good arm (when healthy); the talent is clearly there, but the final draft slot is rough.
This one hurts a lot.
Nussmeier went into the season as a top-15 pick, but ended up one of the last 15 picks. The injuries he suffered undermined his talent and reinforced concerns about his size and limited athletic ability. The post-Senior Bowl – where he was easily the best QB – process went poorly for him, with more medical concerns brought up and reported poor interviews. The talent is absolutely there, but going at 249 overall forces him to be stock down.
I will still be riding the Nuss Buss – at a much lower value – but there are very few instances of non-top-75 QBs becoming much of anything (no, he is not Tom Brady). Kansas City is a fun landing spot, as he will work with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, who are pretty darn decent. He does have an outside shot at some starts this season, too. Patrick Mahomes may not be ready to start the year, and Justin Fields has been volatile and dealt with some injuries.
If Fields performs poorly or gets injured, then Nussmeier has a chance to show a bit of something. He should be drafted in deeper SF leagues, but unfortunately, we cannot expect nearly what we had hoped for, even though he was projected to go in the Beck/Allar range.
The Rest
Of the other drafted QBs, Taylen Green is the most exciting. Naturally, this is the case with his freaky traits and going to a muddled QB room. Cleveland has done great work revamping their OL and receiving corps, so if he gets a chance and shows (vast) improvement, maybe he is something. The remaining drafted QBs are backup options, who teams hope can have some spot-start potential. Cade Klubnik has the clearest path to immediate snaps as the Jets’ backup.
Athan Kaliakmanis is the most interesting to me in the group, with the biggest arm and the most translatable/high-end QB traits. Behren Morton was a shock to see drafted, as one of the more limited prospects in the class (QB18 for me, pre-draft). He is tough as nails and cerebral, but lacks the tools to be a reliable backup.
Amongst the undrafted crop, the most interesting QBs to me are as follows (ordered alphabetically by their new NFL team):
| Name | Team | School |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Strand | Atlanta Falcons | Minnesota-Moorhead |
| Joe Fagnano | Baltimore Ravens | UConn |
| Luke Altmyer | Detroit Lions | Illinois |
| Joey Aguilar | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee |
| Sawyer Robertson | Las Vegas Raiders | Baylor |
| Mark Gronowski | Miami Dolphins | Iowa |
| Jalon Daniels | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Kansas |
Altmyer and Aguilar are probably the most viable in this group, as either could feasibly be the backup on their team this season. Teddy Bridgewater is the only other QB for Detroit, whereas the Jags have a bunch of grosser options. Gronowski and Daniels have paths to backup time, with poor depth behind starters as well. Fagnano (yes, over Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia) is interesting, but Tyler Huntley is the backup there.
I liked Sawyer Robetson’s talent a great deal, but being behind the 1.01 will make it hard to get a chance. Minnesota-Moorhead’s Jack Strand may be the cream of this crop. He has a massive frame and big arms, flashing legitimate NFL throws at a low level of competition.
