Identifying Defensive Linemen Regression in IDP Fantasy Football
Welcome to our article outlining Identifying Defensive Linemen Regression in IDP Fantasy Football. After reading this, you’ll not only have an idea of a few IDP Defensive Linemen you should pivot from going forward, but also WHY you should as well!
When Fonzie famously jumped the shark on Happy Days, it wasn’t just a ridiculous stunt; it became the defining moment that marked the beginning of the show’s decline. That scene gave us the perfect phrase for when something has reached its peak and is about to head downhill.
As we dive into the 2026 IDP landscape, identifying players who may have already “jumped their shark” is just as important as finding the next breakout stars. Regression can come from many directions: natural age-related decline, scheme changes, tougher competition for snaps, or simply an unsustainable previous season.
For defensive linemen especially, snap count regression is often the biggest killer of fantasy production, since their value is so heavily tied to how often they’re on the field.
Key Regression Indicators for Defensive Linemen
When evaluating defensive linemen for potential regression, consider these factors:
- Snap Count Changes: Significant decreases in playing time for various reasons
- Age and Injury History: Older players or a history of injuries
- Scheme and Personnel Changes: New defensive coordinators or additions of talented teammates can impact a player’s role and opportunities.
- Unsustainable Efficiency: Sacks are fluky, so betting the under
Here are four defensive linemen who appear prime for regression in the upcoming season:
1. Greg Rousseau, DL, Buffalo Bills
Rousseau enjoyed a solid 2025 season with a 71% defensive snap share and achieved eight sacks. But Greg Rousseau’s pass rush win rate in the 2025 season was 14.9%. This ranked him around 30th among qualifying edge defenders. You have a right to be worried,
These numbers appear unsustainable heading into 2026. The Bills have historically used a heavy rotation along their defensive line, and they’ve actively bolstered their edge depth this offseason. The addition of Bradley Chubb and rookie T.J. Parker, as well as a new scheme switching to 3-4, should lead to a decline in those snaps. Rousseau’s IDP production will likely regress unless he dramatically improves his per-snap efficiency.
2. Tuli Tuipulotu, DL, Los Angeles Chargers
In 2025, Tuli Tuipulotu established himself as a dominant pass rusher for the Los Angeles Chargers, recording a career-best 13.0 sacks! This marked a substantial jump from his earlier seasons, when he recorded 4.5 sacks as a rookie in 2023 and 8.5 sacks in 2024. Careful observation, you’ll notice he did this with multiple games feeding off the same teams with four sacks against the Giants in Week 4, two against the Raiders in Week 13, and another two against the Chiefs in Week 15. Take those big three games away, and it’s more of the same from the previous season, with just five sacks. Perhaps that’s the floor on this player.
Look, I love a young edge player like the rest of you, and to be fair, he did generate a ton of pressure (70) in 2025. However, his 16% win rate is elite; by comparison, the top guys have over twenty percent. There are notable signs that his sack total could decline in 2026, so you could make a profit here and cash in on the season.
3. Brian Burns, DL, New York Giants
I’ll bet the over on a career season more often than not, but there really is some cause to take a look at this. With the exception of his monster 16.5 sack campaign, Burns has only had one other double-digit sack season in seven seasons. Looking at this further, he is generally a 7-9 sack guy with around 50 tackles. Perhaps that is his floor, but don’t go around thinking last season was the norm. With many mouths to feed, like Abdul Carter, Rookie Arvell Reese, and company, it’s likely the exception to the rule.
4. Andrew Van Ginkle, DL, Minnesota Vikings
PFF flagged Andrew Van Ginkel two seasons in a row now as a potential regression candidate entering the 2025 season, and the drop-off materialized. After a stronger 2024, his production fell, and his 24th-percentile expected-sacks metric suggests that his seven sacks significantly overstated his true pass-rush ability. At age 30, Van Ginkel should not be viewed or drafted as a top-tier DL1 any longer.