The Blueprint of an RB1 In Fantasy Football: What the Last 10 Seasons Reveal

Photo of Colby Conway Colby Conway Follow on X Send an email July 9, 2026Last Updated: July 10, 2026
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The Blueprint of an RB1 In Fantasy Football: What the Last 10 Seasons Reveal | Fantasy In Frames

Welcome to The Blueprint of an RB1 In Fantasy Football: What the Last 10 Seasons Reveal!

Every fantasy football manager wants to identify this year’s RB1, but history tells us the list of realistic candidates is much smaller than most draft boards suggest. There are numerous running backs with the sheer talent to finish the year atop the fantasy leaderboard, but only a handful are in a situation that provides the environment needed to be the best player at the position. From age and workload to team situation and pass catching, history says there are a few thresholds a player needs to clear, or be able to clear, to be the overall RB1.

Much like we did with quarterbacks, let’s take a look at the RB1 from the past 10 seasons, along with key numbers such as age, yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns.

Of course, another important factor in finishing as the RB1 is being on a team that scores at a top-10 rate in the NFL. So, for each of the past 10 RB1 seasons, here is where the player’s team ranked in scoring:

Now that the information is front and center, here are some common themes and findings when analyzing the RB1 over the last 10 seasons:

  • 90% of the last 10 RB1 seasons came from players 27 or younger.
  • 90% of the last 10 RB1 seasons came from a player who surpassed 300 touches.
  • 90% of the last 10 RB1 seasons came from a player who caught at least 40 passes.
  • 90% of the last 10 RB1 seasons came from players whose teams ranked in the top 10 in points per game.
  • 90% of the last 10 RB1 seasons came from a player who totaled at least 17 TDs.
  • 80% of the last 10 RB1 seasons came from a player who recorded at least 1,800 total yards.

When faced with all of that, it’s a rather short list of guys who have a legitimate chance of finishing as the overall RB1. Essentially, you’re looking for a bell cow back who will score a bunch of touchdowns, rack up yards, and catch a couple of passes each week for a high-octane offense. There’s only a handful of guys who fit the mold and check most boxes, let alone every box.

In fact, if we say that a player has to meet all the criteria, there are some notable names who find themselves on the outside looking in when contending for the overall RB1 title:

Without further ado, here are a few guys that have a legitimate chance at ending the year as the RB1, based on historical trends.

Disclaimer: Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs obviously check the boxes, but since they are off the board within the first 2-4 picks of a draft, we won’t be highlighting them here.

Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders

Yes, Jeanty is the RB5 off the board, so this is a bit chalky, but if you can snag the overall RB1 at the back-end of the first round, that’s huge for your fantasy team! It wasn’t the most statistically impressive rookie season, but Jeanty still totaled 975 rushing yards, five rushing scores, and added 55 receptions for another 346 yards and five scores through the air.

Efficiency eluded Jeanty a bit last year, as his 3.67 yards per carry was the sixth-lowest mark amongst RBs with at least 100 carries in 2025, per FantasyPoints’ Data. A porous Las Vegas offensive line gave Jeanty just 1.28 yards before contact per attempt, the second-lowest mark among RBs with at least 100 carries last season, per FantasyPoints’ Data.

However, his 2.38 yards after contact per attempt ranked 17th, and his forced missed tackles per attempt ranked 16th, again amongst RBs with at least 100 carries. The silver lining here is that the team paid big money to add Tyler Linderbaum to help solidify its offensive line in the offseason, and Spencer Burford, a better run blocker than pass blocker, will compete to start on the interior, not to mention third-round rookie Trey Zuhn in the mix.

The offensive line should be better, and with Kirk Cousins and/or Fernando Mendoza under center, I expect the offensive situation to be better. Oh, and offensive mastermind Klint Kubiak is no stranger to fantasy-relevant running backs. The Raiders did add rookie Mike Washington Jr. in the fourth round, but there’s no serious threat to Jeanty’s workload, which is key to fantasy success.

Also, the Raiders added a ton of new faces to their defense, so the defense should be far better, which will keep games close and keep Jeanty in the mix. If any running back can finish as the RB1 on an offense that is outside the top 10 in scoring, Jeanty has as strong a case as any.

✅ 27 or younger

✅ 300+ touches

✅ 40+ receptions

✅ Path to 1,800+ total yards

✅ Touchdown upside

❓ Top 10 scoring offense

Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers

I’m bullish on the Chargers as a whole, and Hampton checks every single box here in the RB1 blueprint. Despite injuries that cut short his rookie season, once he became the guy, he was the guy, and there was no looking back. Over his final seven games of the regular season, he averaged 14.4 carries and 4.1 receptions per game, good for 245 carries and 70 receptions over a full 17-game season. Oh, his pace also comes out to 1,581 yards and 12.1 touchdowns.

And here’s the good, or maybe scary, thing: Things are only going to get better in 2026 for Hampton.

First and foremost, health. Hope for health, and a full 17 games for him in an offense that will now have Mike McDaniel calling plays with Justin Herbert under center. Furthermore, the Chargers’ offensive line cannot be as ravaged by injuries this year as it was last season. There’s no way, right? Right!? Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are elite on the perimeter; the team brought in Tyler Biadasz and Cole Strange in free agency and drafted Jake Slaughter in the second round. The offensive line will be better, and that only benefits Hampton.

Hampton’s 6.5% explosive run rate was the eighth-best mark amongst RBs with at least 100 rushing attempts last season, per FantasyPoints’ Data, and I hope McDaniel gives Hampton plenty of carries in a man/gap concept, although McDaniel loves his zone runs. Last season, Hampton posted 3.19 YPC on zone concept runs, compared to 5.35 YPC on man/gap runs, per FantasyPoints’ Data.

Hampton’s backup is Keaton Mitchell, and while there’s some upside with Mitchell’s speed, injuries have kept him from ever assuming a featured role, and Hampton is the only running back on this team that can handle 15-20 touches per week. They will give him every opportunity, and he has “bell cow” written all over him for 2026.

Here’s McDaniel’s new De’Von Achane.

✅ 27 or younger

✅ 300+ touches

✅ 40+ receptions

✅ Path to 1,800+ total yards

✅ Touchdown upside

✅ Top 10 scoring offense

Kenneth Walker, Kansas City Chiefs

Is it as simple as just Walker being allowed to score touchdowns that will ascend him to fantasy stardom in his first year with the Kansas City Chiefs? His rushing touchdowns have dropped each season since he scored 9 in his rookie season. Last season, Walker had five rushing touchdowns, while Zach Charbonnet had 12. Walker had just 27.6% of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line, per FantasyPoints Data, and inside the 10-yard line, his 20.8% paled in comparison to Charbonnet’s 67.4%.

There’s no Charbonnet in Kansas City this season, and the other guys in the room are Emari Demercado, fifth-round rookie Emmett Johnson, and Brashard Smith, last year’s seventh-rounder. This backfield is his, and money talks, so as long as he stays healthy, this should be a career year in terms of workload.

It would be quite the season if Walker totals 1,800+ yards, but as the bell cow back for the Chiefs, it cannot be ruled out. Age is on his side; the workload will be there where it matters most, but can Walker get to 40 receptions? He caught 46 balls in 2024, but recorded 31 or fewer in his other three seasons. However, in three of the last four seasons, the running back room in Kansas City had a higher target share than that of Seattle’s RB room, so perhaps the path to 40+ receptions does exist for Walker in 2026.

Courtesy of FantasyPros

Coming off a season in which Walker posted the second-highest explosive run rate and the league’s best missed tackles forced per attempt, per FantasyPoints Data, the sky is the limit for Walker in a bell-cow role. Walker checks a lot of boxes for the RB1 blueprint, making him an intriguing selection on draft day.

✅ 27 or younger

✅ 300+ touches

✅ Path to 1,800+ total yards

✅ Touchdown upside

✅ Top 10 scoring offense

❓ 40+ receptions

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

Brown made it through the offseason unscathed, as the Bengals did not add a notable competitor for touches in its backfield. They are going to run it back with a Brown-Samaje Perine one-two punch in 2026. Last season, Brown handled 232 carries for 1,019 yards with six rushing touchdowns, and a prominent role in the passing game (69 receptions on 87 targets for 437 yards and 5 TDs) helped him finish as the RB8 on the season. His 16.6 weighted opportunities per game were the sixth-highest mark in the NFL, per FantasyPoints’ Data, and he should remain the team’s top option near the goal line.

Efficiency isn’t exactly his calling card, as he had eight games with fewer than 50 rushing yards last season, but in PPR setups, his role in the passing game helps raise his floor substantially. To his credit, his 2.42 yards after contact per attempt was higher than Derrick Henry (2.40) and Ashton Jeanty (2.38), and in terms of missed tackles forced per attempt, Brown’s 0.16 mark was tied with James Cook and higher than Christian McCaffrey (0.15) and Jonathan Taylor (0.15), per FantasyPoints’ Data.

If healthy, Brown is a lock for 300+ touches and 40+ receptions again in 2026, and likely double-digit touchdowns as the lead back for a very good Cincinnati offense. After posting 1,200+ total yards in each of the last two seasons, it’s a big jump to that important 1,800-yard threshold, so can Brown get there? If so, it’s going to be volume-based, because again, efficiency hasn’t exactly been a strength of his (4.3 YPC for his career).

Volume is king in fantasy football, and Brown is a key part of the passing game, which, as we know, helps his fantasy floor (and ceiling).

✅ 27 or younger

✅ 300+ touches

✅ 40+ receptions

✅ Touchdown upside

✅ Top 10 scoring offense

❓ Path to 1,800+ total yards

Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys

Williams was a pleasant surprise for the Dallas Cowboys and fantasy managers alike in 2025. On a career-high 252 carries, he racked up 1,201 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, while adding 35 receptions on 51 targets for 137 yards and two additional scores. He ended the year as the RB11 in fantasy, and clocked in as the RB7 in expected fantasy points per game, per FantasyPoints’ Data. He handled double-digit carries in all but one game last season, and he had only three games in which he failed to reach 50 rushing yards.

He posted a respectable 5.2% explosive run rate, and despite having the 15th-lowest yards before contact per attempt amongst RBs with at least 100 carries last season, he had the third-highest yards after contact per attempt! The Cowboys didn’t really do anything with their offensive line, so it shouldn’t be status quo up front. Again, there’s no competition for him in this backfield.

Sure, it’s an outside shot that Williams actually ends the year as the RB1, but there is a path to exceeding 40 receptions, and his role at the goal line should be unquestioned in 2026. Here are the running backs from 2025 who handled at least 60% of their team’s carries inside the 5, 10, and 20-yard lines: Josh Jacobs, Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, Christian McCaffrey, Javonte Williams, Jonathan Taylor, and Quinshon Judkins.

This Dallas offense should score a bunch of points again in 2026, and Williams has bell cow potential again in 2026. Williams catching 40+ passes seems attainable, but I’m unsure if he has a realistic path to 1,800 total yards. His career-high of 1,201 rushing yards last season and 346 receiving yards in 2024 still put him well under the 1,800-yard threshold we’re searching for. However, he’s affordable in drafts and checks many boxes for the RB1 blueprint.

✅ 27 or younger

✅ 300+ touches

✅ Touchdown upside

✅  Top 10 scoring offense

❓ 40+ receptions

❓ Path to 1,800+ total yards

Let me know what you think about my breakdown of The Blueprint of an RB1 in Fantasy Football: What the Last 10 Seasons Reveal. Stay tuned, as next time I’ll discuss my analysis of The Blueprint of a Fantasy Football WR1.

To see how our analysts rank these and other QBs for the upcoming season, click here!

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Photo of Colby Conway Colby Conway Follow on X Send an email July 9, 2026Last Updated: July 10, 2026
0 20 10 minutes read

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