Welcome to IDP Plays & Fades for Week 3!
And now we are off, running down to the Ript-IDP! Let’s uncap our pens and discuss the fades and plays for Week 3! Week 2 gives more data points for us to use for our ascent up fantasy mountain, and we will try to lead you to the top of Mount Olympus!
Welp.. week 2 was rough. Overall, my advice was not particularly good; however, I am confident in the process. Analysis improves with more data points, and our sample size has now doubled. Fantasy is a game of process leading to results, and we will attack the process again!
In this series, I will help highlight some players who could surpass expectations or fall short of them. We will hit three plays and three fades at each position (DL, LB, DB) from varying positions in weekly rankings. While they will not be forced, I will also try to add in a DT and a CB from their respective position groups. The goal for each group will be to have at least one high-level name and a lower-ranked player, ones who could rise tiers based on matchups or falter a bit due to “empty” statistics. Now it is time to saddle your mount (horse, pegasus, dragon, etc) and ride into the fires (seas?) of IDP week 2!
Some notes! Common statistics and metrics used will come from the Pro Football Focus (PFF) database. Metrics include PRP (Pass Rush Productivity, essentially how effective an individual rusher is), PRWR (Pass Rush Win Rate), AVDT (Average Depth of Tackle – how far down the field run tackles are made), amongst some other snap counts. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Defensive Lineman
Play: Milton Williams, DT, New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Williams is coming off a game in which he earned his massive free-agent payday. Two sacks and TFLs lead him to a top-8 DT finish. His metrics back up the production so far, with elite PFF grades at PRP, PRWR, and overall rush grade.
- Pittsburgh has already allowed four sacks to opponent DTs, including three last week to Seattle. They have played some behemoths at the position, which Williams absolutely fits.
- Williams is also coming off a career-high 78% snap share. Elite metrics and significant usage will continue to put him in a position for high-level fantasy production, especially in a great matchup!
Play: Carl Granderson, EDGE, New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
- Well, I hope you did not listen to anyone suggesting a fade of Granderson in Week 2… he tallied two more sacks to take the league lead to 3.5. With two elite weeks, we are calling for a heat check against Seattle.
- The Seahawks have allowed more points to EDGE players than anyone else this year, giving Granderson another great opportunity. Seattle’s offensive line has struggled for years, giving Granderson a high sack potential to go along with a great tackle floor (13 in 2 games).
Play: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals
- This is an injury replacement play, through and through. Andrew Van Ginkel missed week 2’s matchup with Atlanta due to a concussion, and is a toss-up to play in week 3. With AVG out, Turner jumped from 43% of snaps to 91%.
- The Bengals matchup is incredibly juicy for 2024’s first-round pick, as they have allowed the 3rd most points to EDGE players. Turner’s talent and visible improvement would give him a chance to attack Jake Browning and a porous Bengals offensive line.
- With the uncertainty of play time and lack of full proof of the player, Turner is not a start in shallow leagues. However, in deep and dynasty leagues, he should be on the periphery, as he may be poised to take the next step in breaking out.
Fade: Cameron Heyward, DT, Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
- Few things in football are more depressing than seeing an all-timer lose their powers. We are starting to see this with the long-time Steeler, who is no longer the top snap-earner at DT. He is still an outstanding player, but his days of fantasy stardom are more hit or miss now.
- New England has been a bad matchup early on, allowing a bottom-5 point total to the position. Adding this to a limited role makes Heyward a risky play. He still has solid play in his arsenal, but is a floor play, not an upside swing.
Fade: Byron Young, EDGE, Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Let’s start with the nature of this exercise: this is not a pure start or sit article. Fades are not necessarily benchable players, but ones who may finish a tier or two below where they have been. That is the case with Young, who has been a top-8 EDGE in consecutive weeks.
- The matchup is the main reason for the drop, as he goes to Philadelphia and their HOF-worthy bookends. Philadelphia has been middle-of-the-pack in terms of EDGE points allowed through two weeks, but they do not allow blow-up games.
- Young has done very well this season, but he is still the clear second fiddle to 2024 DROY, Jared Verse. Young has gotten the clean-up statistics over Verse so far, but that also cannot last forever! Still play Young confidently, but another top-8 finish would be surprising.
Fade: Tuli Tuipulotu, EDGE, Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
- With Khalil Mack down, the 3rd year Chargers rusher will have to take on a much larger role. He is a solid run-defender, but his pass-rush skill is merely fine (including PFF grading). The skillset makes his floor fine, but does not allow for a massive ceiling.
- Having a higher slot in the pecking order will give Tuipulotu a chance to make more plays, but it will also put more attention on him. Denver has allowed the fewest points to EDGE players of all teams, making it an even more challenging task.
Linebackers
Play: Ernest Jones, Seattle Seahawks vs New Orleans Saints
- Jones has been a top-fantasy LB since coming to Seattle, a trend that should continue against the Saints this week. New Orleans has been a good matchup, allowing a top-5 performance last week and a borderline LB1 showing in week 1. The offense in New Orleans is based around the run and short-passing, giving their opponent’s LB1 ample opportunities.
- Jones himself has been spectacular for fantasy, finishing as an LB1 in consecutive weeks. He has 18 tackles and an INT thus far, continuing the 9+ tackles/game he averaged with Seattle in 2024. Jones has the floor of a borderline LB1, which is combined with a great ceiling if the Saints target his area often or if he can tap into the elite rusher he has been in the past.
Play: Mack Wilson, Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
- Wilson has been a solid LB2 play this season, taking over as Arizona’s LB1. Sixteen total tackles is solid, if unspectacular, but that is what can be expected in this role. There is no active threat to his role, so Wilson should be locked into LB2/3 roles at this time.
- Against San Francisco, Wilson may have a bit higher ceiling. The 49ers will remain run-heavy, especially with backup Mac Jones under center. They will need to lean on CMC and middle-of-the-field passing, which will give Wilson more opportunities to make plays on the ball. The 49ers have been a top-quarter matchup so far, making us even more confident in the steady Cardinals’ LB1.
Play: Teddye Buchanan, Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions (MNF)
- Now we have a deeper cut. Buchanan has taken over the Ravens’ LB2 role after seeing an increase in snaps from 34% to 82%. Baltimore’s LB2 has given us some great moments since Roquan Smith came over, giving us hope that Buchanan could be the next thing. This still is a sub-full-time role, but in the right matchup, this archetype of player can have fantasy success.
- Monday night, Detroit comes to the Bank, toting an offense that allows more IDP points to LBs than almost everyone. Detroit leans heavily on its running game and a QB who targets the middle-of-the-field more than most. In a difficult matchup with Baltimore, Detroit will need to lean on its two-headed monster in the backfield, giving even a part-time starter like Buchanan ample tackle opportunities. If you need a swing for the fences or are starting more than 3 LBs, Buchanan is a sneaky add-and-start.
Fade: Zaire Franklin, Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
- There was concern entering 2025 that Franklin might not be a great fit in Lou Anarumo’s defense, which appears to be somewhat true. The multi-year tackle leader has struggled to produce for fantasy thus far, with less than 10 total tackles. While it is more than possible that this is a flash in the pan, it is a massive concern to see his tackle totals halved in just one offseason.
- If Franklin were to make a comeback, this is not the matchup to bet on. The Titans have been pass-heavy with Cam Ward under center, and Franklin has always struggled in coverage. A run-heavy team would give Franklin a safer floor, but we do not have that here. This approach has led to the Titans being a bottom-3 matchup for LBs in the early season. Franklin’s career makes him impossible to bench, but we cannot expect this to be the week he turns it all around.
Fade: SirVocea Dennis, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets
- Another bad LB matchup has surprisingly been the run-heavy Jets. Even though they are run-heavy, Breece Hall and Justin Fields do better running (and passing) to the boundary, making it harder for typical off-ball LBs to have massive tackle totals. It is possible the struggles also come from the Jets only playing lighter, faster linebackers, but that trend does not change with Tampa Bay.
- Dennis has been impressive for the Buccaneers in taking over the LB2 role, but he is still the second man. 91% of snaps are excellent, but Lavonte David is there to steal a huge amount of work. In the right matchup, Dennis has high-end LB2 potential, but in a poor one, he falls into LB3 range. The Tyrod Taylor potential start (as Justin Fields is recovering from a concussion), would make the QB-run game less of a factor, and lower Dennis’ week 3 stock further.
Fade: Germaine Pratt, Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders
- One of the most valuable pieces of information gathered in the early parts of the season is snap-share. We had hoped Pratt would beat out Devin White and Elandon Roberts for the LB1 role. This has not happened, with Pratt seeing 76% of snaps with Roberts’ return in week 2.
- That snap share is not sustainable for a weekly starter, forcing the need for an elite matchup to be a confident play. Washington is not that, even if Jayden Daniels is currently hobbled. Overall, Washington has been a middle-of-the-road matchup. Pratt, as a part-time player, makes him fadeable and droppable in most formats, aside from a random weekly upside shot.
Defensive Backs
Play: Roger McCreary, CB, Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts
- McCreary has been a “my guy” at CB for a few years now and has lived up to that thus far. Twelve tackles, 2 PBUs, and an INT have him as a CB1 so far as he enters another solid matchup. Indianapolis has been a top-12 matchup for CBs, leaning on the run and rookie TE/Slot Tyler Warren. McCreary will see a lot of work from Warren and Taylor, giving him a nice tackle upside.
- McCreary has had an elite role again, with all but one snap in the slot or on the line. He saw only 75% of snaps last week, but Indianapolis uses 11 personnel more than many teams, which will force the slot-man onto the field more often. CB is a position of opportunity, and McCreary looks to have a strong one this week.
Play: Nick Cross, Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
- The play style for the Titans may hurt LB1 Zaire Franklin, but it is a boost for box safety Nick Cross. The Titans have been a top-2 matchup for safeties this year, with points coming from turnovers and tackles to box safeties.
- Cross has elite usage for a safety, with 70% of snaps in the slot/box. New addition Cam Bynum has taken much of the spotlight, with 2 INTs and wild celebrations, but Cross has been good for IDP leagues thus far. 13 tackles and a sack have made him a mid-level S2 thus far, with the matchup boosting his floor even more.
Play: Jeremy Chinn, S, Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders
- This prediction worked out last week, so we are running it back! 6 tackles against the Chargers and another week of significant usage make Chinn a near must-start now. He has played 70% of his snaps in the slot/box area, which gives him a great IDP baseline, starting most snaps near the ball.
- Washington is not a great matchup, but the injury to Jayden Daniels should force them to hand the ball off more, making Chinn a better play than the initial data collection suggests. Chinn’s prowess against the run (top-5 PFF metric) shows the ability to get to the ball and drive carriers down. Chinn is still a borderline S1 play this week.
Fade: Paulsen Adebo, New York Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs (SNF)
- The Chiefs have a flawed receiving room, with little success to be had on the outside. This will force Patrick Mahomes to continue to look over the middle or utilize the scramble drill, making it harder for Adebo to make plays on the outside. Kansas City has been a bottom-half matchup for CBs based on this, which should continue. The process advises against buying into the boundary corner in most situations.
- Last week’s CB2, but buyer beware! A theme of my IDP analysis is bias against boundary corners. Yes, they are more likely to have interceptions, but those are sporadic and hard to predict, especially when they’re killing tackle floors. Wait. This sounds familiar… oh right, that is the exact synopsis for Jamel Dean going into week 2 (which was one of the few successes last week)!
Fade: Kam Curl, Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Curl has had a spectacular start to 2025, recording 17 tackles in just two games. There are concerns with how real this is, as Curl has played around 60% of his snaps deep. We know it is easier to get IDP Production when you are near the ball, a luxury that Curl does not currently have.
- The Eagles have been stingy against safeties, allowing only a handful of tackles to the position group. Coming off the top-5 finish, it is reasonable to expect him to play at that level again. However, this matchup does not make outlandish IDP projections, with Curl’s usage and the lack of team allowance. He can be started as a DB2, but
Fade: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers
- Delpit may have survived talking smack to Derrick Henry last week, but will that good fortune continue? Thus far, it appears unlikely, as Delpit is totalling nine tackles and overall underwhelming fantasy production. The Packers have been a bottom-5 matchup for safeties thus far, which primes them to keep Delpit out of the boxscore.
- On Delpit’s side is usage, where he has played over 75% of snaps this season. That is elite usage for a safety, which can help return him to S1 status. The Packers’ matchup makes this a much more difficult task. Even with a good matchup, the previous scoring makes it difficult to start Delpit as a confident S1, but that cannot be done with an awful matchup.
