Welcome to IDP Plays & Fades for Week 5!
And now we are off, running down to the Ript-IDP! Let’s uncap our pens and discuss the IDP PLAYS & FADES for Week 5! Week 4 gives more data points for us to use for our ascent up fantasy mountain, and we will try to lead you to the top of Mount Olympus!
The process remains strong, and it is starting to pay off after a strong week! Now we are a quarter of the way through the season, and usage, skill, etc, is beginning to normalize.
In this series, I will help highlight some players who could surpass expectations or fall short of them. We will hit three plays and three fades at each position (DL, LB, DB) from varying positions in weekly rankings. While they will not be forced, I will also try to add in a DT and a CB from their respective position groups. The goal for each group will be to have at least one high-level name and a lower-ranked player, ones who could rise tiers based on matchups or falter a bit due to “empty” statistics. Now it is time to saddle your mount (horse, pegasus, dragon, etc) and ride into the fires (seas?) of IDP week 5!
Some notes! I have built a “dummy league” that reflects FantasyPros scoring as closely as possible, but has “true positions.” When referencing rankings, they come from this league, with the hope that they mirror FantasyPros rankings/statistics closely enough. Common statistics/metrics that will be used come from the Pro Football Focus (PFF) database. Metrics include PRP (Pass Rush Productivity, essentially how effective an individual rusher is), PRWR (Pass Rush Win Rate), AVDT (Average Depth of Tackle – how far down the field run tackles are made), amongst some other snap counts. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.
Defensive Lineman:
Play: Maliek Collins, DT, Cleveland Browns vs Minnesota Vikings
- After having no statistics for the first two weeks, Collins has been on fire for the last two. He has been a DT1 in the previous two weeks, with 10 tackles and 1.5 sacks. 71% of snaps is not an elite number, but it is more than enough snaps to make an impact for IDP rosters in the right matchup.
- Minnesota has been a good matchup for DTs so far, yielding top-8 point volume. That alone is not super enticing; however, disaster-artist Carson Wentz makes any matchup great for IDP. To make matters worse for the Vikings (and better for Collins), the Vikings’ interior Offensive Line has been dealing with numerous injuries, forcing backups to try and stop the surging veteran. He is a massive upside shot for DT1 numbers.
Play: Josh Sweat, EDGE, Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans
- This is a matchup you can expect to be a constant theme of this article. The Titans have been beyond atrocious on offense, starting with the line. They have allowed 11 sacks to edge rushers through 4 games, making them a top-2 matchup.
- Sweat has been on NBA Jam rules fire, with a sack in 3 straight games. His pass rush metrics have been very strong, so empty calories are not a concern for this good of a matchup. He is a mid-level EDGE2 so far, but this matchup could have him as an EDGE1 for the week.
Play: Dorrance Armstrong, EDGE, Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Armstrong has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the IDP season, with three sacks and almost five tackles per game. He is currently just outside the EDGE1 rankings with those numbers, which have been a good mix of floor and ceiling. His pass rush metrics are not elite, but solid enough that we can believe the production.
- Armstrong faces maybe the best matchup yet, with a brutalized Chargers’ Offensive Line. In the last two weeks, Justin Herbert has been pressured on over 50% of his dropbacks, which we can expect to maintain as they are down two Blue-chip offensive tackles. Even with Joe Alt active, the Chargers were a top-8 matchup for EDGE players; now that he’s out, Armstrong has a chance to feast.
Fade: Jonah Laulu, DT, Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts
- Despite massive turnover along the interior offensive line, the Colts have performed well, becoming a bottom-3 matchup for DTs. No DT has put up even decent numbers against Indianapolis so far.
- Laulu has been a borderline DT1 this season on the back of 3 sacks. However, he has been on a cold stretch, with zero sacks and only four total tackles in the last two weeks. Laulu’s struggles, combined with overall poor metrics, make him an easy fade this week.
Fade: Jalyx Hunt, EDGE, Philadelphia Eagles vs Denver Broncos
- Hunt has yet to deliver on the breakout we had hoped to see in 2025. He has started the season with only seven tackles and overall poor metrics. With Nolan Smith out, his snaps have ticked up, though he is still not a full-time player.
- Denver is an awful matchup for EDGE players, yielding fewer points to EDGEs than any other team (and half as many as 2nd team). The Broncos’ OL is elite in pass protection and very good in the run game as well, making it an impossible task for a struggling, albeit talented, young player.
Fade: Bradley Chubb, EDGE, Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers
- Carolina’s offense may not do much well, but one of those things is not allowing massive points to opposing EDGE players. Last week was a prime example of this, as they shut out New England’s Harold Landry, despite trailing the whole game.
- Bradley Chubb has been a top-30 EDGE this season, with three sacks. However, the metrics suggest that those sacks are not directly translatable to future production. He is not in the top 100 in total Pass Rush grade or PRWR, while being outside the top 60 in PRP. His Run defense grade is even worse, falling outside of the top 120. Chubb has good box score stats, but they should not be believed in a bad matchup!
Linebackers:
Play: SirVocea Dennis, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
- In his first year as a full-time starter, Dennis has started as an LB2, averaging just over six tackles per game. He has graded out as one of the top-8 LBs against the run so far, while leading the league with a 17.3% stop rate and top-8 1.7 AVDT. The numbers and full-time role lead us to believe that he can absolutely blow up in the right matchup, even with Lavonte David still next to him.
- Seattle may be the perfect matchup to unlock Dennis’ IDP value. The Seahawks have been a top-5 matchup thus far, with one interesting twist: in each of their four games, their opponent’s LB2 has outscored their LB1, with the last three games having a significant margin. Opposing LB2s have averaged just under 10 tackles per game, giving Dennis a massive ceiling to go with the floor his run-stuffing has provided.
Play: Eric Wilson, Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
- Through 4 games, the Vikings’ reserve LB has played well, being a back-end LB3 with 26 total tackles and two forced fumbles. The numbers are far from spectacular, but steady enough to have very good games in the right matchup.
- Cleveland is one of those matchups, especially as they bring in rookie QB Dillon Gabriel for his first start. The Browns have given up more points to LBs than any other team, and now will lean more on the run and quick passing with the rookie. Wilson has been the LB1 since week 2, giving him the inside track for a solid IDP performance!
Play: Teddye Buchanan, Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans
- What a week it was for the Ravens (derogatory). The team lived up to its group name, as they were murdered by the Chiefs and left with many injuries, including star LB Roquan Smith. The rookie, Buchanan, took over the lion’s share of snaps in Smith’s wake and looks primed to start while Smith is out.
- Houston has been a merely decent matchup this season. However, the emergence of fellow-rookie Woody Marks may see the Texans lean more into the ground game. Buchanan may not put up gaudy numbers, but seven tackles in limited work last week gives hope for an LB2-type showing.
Fade: Foyesade Oluokun, Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs (MNF)
- Oluokun has been a long-time IDP star and a player I have been low on for almost as long. Oluokun seems to have finally lost the LB1 role to Devin Lloyd, who is playing out of his mind this year. Oluokun has been a top-8 LB so far this season, but most of that production comes from a few turnovers and a sack, and not from huge tackle numbers.
- A matchup with Patrick Mahomes makes big plays less likely, as he and the Chiefs allow the 2nd fewest LB points. Only superstar Daiyan Henley has scored double-digit points against Kansas City this year, proving a scary matchup for both Jacksonville LBs. It will be hard to bench the Jaguars’ star LB, though this is a week where you cannot expect his typical production.
Fade: Mack Wilson, Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans
- Each season, there are a few teams to attack for IDP points and others to avoid. The Titans have been one to avoid for LBs this year. The offense has been awful thus far, leading to the fewest LB points allowed across the league.
- Mack Wilson has been solid this year, starting as an LB2. However, this matchup (and the next two before the bye) will make him earn his numbers. The best LB performance allowed by the Titans this year was an eight total tackle showing by Nate Landman in week 2, which made him a mid-level LB2. Wilson has averaged 8.5 tackles and 1 PBU per week thus far, but those numbers are closer to the ceiling in week 5.
Fade: Tyrice Knight, Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Last week’s final LB fade was based on uncertain playing time, a theme that will repeat this week. Noah Sewell ended up being a fine play last week, as T.J. Edwards sat again, however we will not have that issue this week.
- Tyrice Knight has lost the LB2 role in Seattle, as 3rd year pro Drake Thomas has taken over. Thomas has not seen a massive snap-share, but it has overtaken Knight’s in a way that makes Knight un-rosterable for the time being. Tampa Bay is a good matchup for LBs, so if one of Knight or Thomas were to miss the game, you could play the other. However, Knight is a roster fade unless he reclaims his role.
Defensive Backs:
Play: Chau Smith-Wade, Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins
- This week’s play at CB is the 2nd year slot-man for the Panthers. This is an incredibly deep cut for a CB ranked outside of the top-48 in fantasy points, even while having a defensive TD. However, the matchup and usage make CSW an interesting bye-week shot in week 5.
- Miami is a middle-of-the-road matchup thus far; however, that could change with Tyreek Hill’s injury. The Dolphins are a spread-it-out offense, which should give some opportunities to slot/boundary players like Smith-Wade. We should also see even more quick, short passes without Hill’s elite speed as a factor, which should give an uptick in opportunities. Smith-Wade is not a full-time player, but sees all of his snaps in the slot, which makes him an interesting deep shot this week.
Play: Donovan Wilson, S, Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets
- Well, how the turntables! Wilson, a fade last week (which hit, as he fell outside of S3 range), is not a play this week! Wilson has not had heavy box usage at this point, but still sees a majority of snaps there, giving him a decent floor.
- Wilson has been a top-15 S over the last 3 weeks, with 20 total tackles and an INT. The tackle total over that stretch is strong and repeatable with a great matchup. Justin Fields’ Jets have been a top-3 matchup for Safeties this season, allowing a large tackle volume on QB runs and outlet passing. Wilson has backend S1 potential this week, but is a safe bet for S2 numbers.
Play: Justin Reid, S, New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants
- The Giants have not been a great matchup for Safeties thus far; however, things appear to be changing. Jaxson Dart has taken over at QB, and Malik Nabers is done for the season. Dart’s Giants will be run-heavy, giving opposing box safeties a great floor. Without Nabers and with Dart’s inexperience, the passing game becomes far more condensed and simple, also leading to more mistakes and tackle chances.
- Reid has been a stalwart for nearly a decade, which has continued in his first season with the Saints. Before last week, Reid was averaging five tackles per game while playing nearly 65% of snaps near the ball. He is a strong tackler, giving him a high floor against this Giants’ team.
Fade: Ja’Quan McMillian, CB, Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
- McMillian was a recent fun breakout player at CB, but that time may be coming to an end. He has started ceding snaps to rookie Jahdae Barron, who was dominant out of the slot at Texas. It is a matter of when, not if, Barron takes over, and when seems to be very soon.
- Even if McMillian had the full role, he would land in fade range. He faces an Eagles team that does not allow many points to CBs – bottom-5 in the league. Budding rookie Jacob Parrish was the fade last week against the Eagles, which was met with Parrish finishing outside the top-30 CBs. A bad matchup and uncertain role may be the final nail in McMillian’s season-long IDP coffin.
Fade: Brian Branch, S, Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals
- WEEKLY REMINDER: FADE ≠ BENCH – especially when talking superstars. Fading Branch does not mean to bench (you cannot) or even that he will have a bad game. This is a matchup issue that should adjust the rest of your lineups.
- Branch faces an incompetent Bengals offense that is not allowing many points to safeties. Is this a skill? No. They have been so bad that safeties/slot players are not even able to make plays. Branch could have an enormous game if he gets his hand on the ball. However, Branch is not as stable this week as you would expect for a superstar with the matchup, so you cannot bank the typical output you usually would get! Again, this is a fade in the sense that your lineup strategy could/should change if you are typically banking on top-5 production from Branch!
Fade: Cole Bishop, S, Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots (SNF)
- Usage is a recurring theme for the plays and fades, as Bishop is primarily a deep safety. Bishop fits into the “big-play or bust” IDP style that many deep safeties face. His 19 total tackles are fine, but his mid-S2 status is on the back of an INT and sack this season.
- Big plays are hard to predict, typically, especially against a QB that is locked in like Drake Maye is right now. The Patriots have been a bottom-6 matchup for Safeties so far, which takes some of the floor away from an already volatile piece.
