Welcome to Plays & Fades for Week 3!
It’s critical not to panic if you started the season at 0-2. It is still very early in the process, and the last thing you wanna do is start dismantling the roster you put together on draft day. Let it play out for another week or two before evaluating major moves, such as a trade.
You do, however, wanna stay aggressive on the waiver wire for sure. We have you covered for that as well just by clicking here. Aidan breaks it all down and gives you his top adds for week 3, so make sure to check that out.
Let’s nail week 3 with some good decisions to get you your first win, or over the hump, or if you’ve been fortunate to win both games, keep you undefeated, get you to 3-0!
Quarterback
Play: QB Caleb Williams Vs Dallas Cowboys
- Not the flashiest stat line against the Lions with 207 passing yards and one touchdown, but he added 58 yards and a score on the ground. His rushing ability will continue to make Williams a reliable starting option.
- It’s a great matchup for Caleb Williams, as the Cowboys are allowing the third-most passing yards per game (301) through two weeks. Just last week, Russell Wilson threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns against them, showing that this defense can be exploited.
- It’s a strong bounce-back spot for Williams and the Bears’ offense under Ben Johnson. Vegas has this O/U total at 48.5, so we should see a lot of fireworks on offense on both sides. Fire up Williams, who has a good shot of finishing as a QB1 this week.
Play: QB Sam Darnold Vs New Orleans Saints
- After an ugly Week 1, Darnold rebounded well. He threw for 295 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Pittsburgh Steelers. There was concern about the Hawks traveling east, but he answered it with 20 fantasy points.
- The Saints aren’t a bad defense early on, ranking middle of the pack against the pass. Spencer Rattler, however, has the fourth-most attempts through two games but only 421 passing yards to show for it.
- I expect him to continue struggling in a hostile environment, which should give Seattle great field position for Darnold to work with.
Play: QB Russell Wilson @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Russell Wilson cooked up 450 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT against rival Dallas. Despite the Giants falling to 0-2, Jaxson Dart’s starting hopes are on hold after this performance.
- The Chiefs contained Jalen Hurts through the air, but Justin Herbert carved them up in Week 1. With the Giants likely to throw more than the Eagles, 300 yards and 3 TDs is a realistic expectation.
- The betting line for this one has the Chiefs favored -6 so look for Wilson to have to throw early and often to keep up with the Chiefs. Ride the hot hand.
Fade: QB Kyler Murray @ San Francisco 49ers
- I’m just not impressed with him throwing the football, when last week was his highest total of 220 yards. I know it’s early in the season, but among starting QBs, he has the fifth-highest check-down percentage.
- He’s not really making up for his passing with his legs either. He’s averaging 35 yards on the ground, ranking ninth among QBs. It’s not a terrible stat line, but when you factor in his poor passing numbers, it’s a red flag for fantasy production.
- It’s not a good spot for Kyler to get going, as the 49ers defense ranks sixth against the pass, holding quarterbacks to just 178.5 yards per game. Their depth at the linebacker position allows them to spy Murray and contain his rushing, taking away his best weapon which is his legs. Keep him on your bench.
Fade: QB Jordan Love @ Cleveland Browns
- He has played really well so far, no doubt, but this feels like a trap game for his fantasy numbers. With Jayden Reed out long term, the Packers are thin at wide receiver and do not have many trustworthy options beyond Tucker Kraft.
- It is in the Packers best interest to lean on the ground game with Josh Jacobs, letting him chew up yards and work the clock. Still, it is a tough matchup for both Jacobs and Jordan Love, as the Browns are a feisty defensive group ranking inside the top ten against both the pass and the run.
- Vegas sees this as a low-scoring game, with the over/under opening at 43.5. Expect limited scoring on both sides, making Jordan Love a risky fantasy play.
Fade: QB Jayden Daniels Vs Las Vegas Raiders
- He is questionable with a knee injury suffered on TNF against Green Bay. If Daniels plays Sunday against the Raiders, I caution starting him.
- The offense relies on Daniels and his ability to run and execute RPOs. If his mobility is limited, it could severely impact his performance.
- Through two games, the Raiders have generated six sacks and have been effective at pressuring quarterbacks. If Daniels is forced to stay in the pocket, they could lean more on the ground game with Deebo Samuel and Bill Croskey-Merritt.
Running Back
Play: RB Bill Croskey-Merritt Vs Las Vegas Raiders
- Yeah, I’m coming back to Bill Croskey-Merritt in Week 3. I know it was a disappointing game against the Packers where he carried the ball only four times for 17 yards. The opportunity just wasn’t there for him.
- The Packers run defense has been dominant early in the season. Last week’s limited carries and yardage were a product of the matchup, not a decline in the player’s role or ability.
- Ekeler’s season-ending Achilles injury opens the door for Bill Croskey-Merritt to take on a bigger role. Expect him to handle more touches and remain central to the offense, making this a prime matchup at home against the Raiders.
Play: RB JK Dobbins @ Los Angeles Chargers
- I’ve been saying all along that JK Dobbins would have a role in this offense. He’s proving it by taking a significant share of the carries and actually outperforming rookie RJ Harvey.
- Through two weeks, Dobbins has a 50% snap share compared to Harvey’s 31.5%. Small sample size aside, Dobbins has taken all three snaps inside the five-yard line, converting one into a touchdown from short distance.
- Last week Dobbins handled the lion’s share of the workload with 16 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts, and that trend is likely to continue in this week’s division showdown with the Chargers.
Play: RB Jordan Mason Vs Cincinnati Bengals
- Aaron Jones suffered a hamstring injury against the Falcons, opening the door for a full run as the RB1 for the Vikings. He has already taken more carries than Jones (24-13) and could now run away with the job, no pun intended.
- It’s an excellent spot for Mason to run against the Bengals, as Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten combined for over 100 rushing yards on this defense. The game is evenly matched, especially with Joe Burrow out nursing a turf toe injury.
- With J.J. McCarthy out with an ankle injury, it will be important for the Vikings to establish the run early. They do not want to rely on Carson Wentz throwing the football. Jordan Mason is due for a heavy workload.
Fade: RB Breece Hall @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 1, Breece Hall was phenomenal, finishing as RB9. Last week against the Bills, he struggled, totaling just 29 yards on 10 carries.
- It’s not a great spot for Hall if you’re expecting a bounce-back, as the Buccaneers are a top-five unit against the run. They may lean on Braelon Allen more in the red zone, as he has doubled Hall’s carries inside the 20-yard line.
- He could do most of his work in the receiving game, but as an RB2, it feels risky to rely on him solely as a pass-catcher.
Fade: RB David Montgomery @ Baltimore Ravens
- As a fringe flex or RB2, I am not high on Montgomery against the Ravens on MNF. The volume has not been there; he has totaled 11 carries in both games, averaging just 41 yards. Last week’s touchdown was a nice bonus, but that is not something you can rely on.
- Even in a potential shootout in Charm City, Montgomery remains strictly touchdown-dependent.
Fade: RB Chuba Hubbard Vs Atlanta Falcons
- I admit Chuba has had a better start to the season than I expected, scoring twice through the air and finishing just inside the top 10 (RB8) in Week 1 and just outside it (RB11) in Week 2.
- Is it sustainable? He hasn’t scored on the ground yet and hasn’t rushed for more than 60 yards. It’s a divisional battle this week, and I expect it to be a low-scoring game.
- Atlanta is no cupcake against the run or the pass, ranking inside the top 10 in both categories, so be careful if you’re starting him as an RB2 this week.
Wide Receiver
Play: WR Wan’Dale Robinson Vs Kansas City Chiefs
- I had Robinson as a play last week, and he did not disappoint. Russell Wilson has continued to target him heavily, totaling 18 looks through the first two games. He is the clear WR2 in this offense, behind Malik Nabers, who demands a lot of attention.
- I expect the Chiefs to bounce back after going 0-2, entering as heavy road favorites. Look for Wilson to throw the ball frequently again, as he did against Dallas.
- Robinson is a definite flex play this week against the Chiefs and could reach WR2 numbers with another dose of heavy volume.
Play: WR George Pickens @ Chicago Bears
- It was a nice outing for Pickens, who finished as the WR15 on the week. He had five catches on nine targets for 68 yards and a score against the Giants.
- The Bears are coming off a game where they allowed over 500 yards of total offense. You read that right, they allowed 177 rushing yards and 334 yards in the air. Pickens should have a field day.
- Ceedee Lamb may be the focal point, but George Pickens has plenty of room to shine. This high-powered offense and favorable matchup make him a strong WR2 option or flex starter.
Play: WR Rome Odunze Vs Dallas Cowboys
- Odunze has found the end zone three times in two games, making him impossible to ignore. With this matchup sporting one of the slate’s highest totals, expect him to continue delivering WR2-level production, making him a key flex option.
- There’s so much to love besides his fantasy scoring. Odunze actually leads the Bears in targets, catches, yards, and even first read share percentage. He’s arguably the WR1, and the arrow is pointing up.
Fade: WR Tee Higgins @ Minnesota Vikings
- We all know Tee Higgins is a boom-or-bust WR at this point, but with Jake Browning, it’s more bust than boom. Burrow went down in the second quarter, and Browning came in, completing only one pass to Higgins in a game where he threw 32 times.
- Higgins’ target share dropped to 15.6% with Browning. While it’s a small sample size, he had a 23.1% target share last year with Joe Burrow, something to keep an eye on moving forward.
Fade: WR Tyreek Hill @ Buffalo Bills
- Tyreek comes off a strong Week 2, hauling in six catches for 109 yards on seven targets.
- The problem: this came against the Patriots, who have allowed the most passing yards through two games, and now he faces the Bills, who’ve given up the fewest.
- I’m not sure I can trust much from this Dolphins offense outside of De’Von Achane, especially coming off a short week against a division foe on the road in Buffalo. Be careful.
Fade: WR AJ Brown Vs Los Angeles Rams
- I get it. Fading AJ Brown is tough because the moment you do, he usually pops off. But through two games, he’s shown very little, totaling just six catches for 35 yards.
- Jalen Hurts just hasn’t been passing the ball enough for me to feel comfortable starting Brown right now. In fact he’s sitting as the 28th ranked quarterback in attempted passes.
- The Rams are ranked seventh against the pass and 13th against the run, but they haven’t faced a team like the Eagles yet. With the game total at just 44.5, this could be a defensive battle where Brown might gain more yards but still fails to find the end zone.
Tight End
Play: TE Juwan Johnson @ Seattle Seahawks
- Last week, he caught five passes for 49 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals, reinforcing his role as a dependable option moving forward.
- Spencer Rattler has targeted his big-bodied tight end 20 times in two games. With the team likely playing from behind, Juwan Johnson should see plenty of opportunities and has upside to finish as a top-three TE, despite currently ranking ECR TE7.
Play: TE Harold Fannin Jr Vs Green Bay Packers
- It’s hard to ignore his involvement after two straight top-13 finishes. With no touchdowns yet, his fantasy output still has plenty of room to climb.
- With 48.3% of his routes from the slot and 39.7% inline, Fannin Jr is being deployed in multiple ways. That kind of usage shows the team is finding different ways to keep him on the field and in the game plan.
- Green Bay’s defense is tough, but not airtight against tight ends. Flacco will be forced into volume, and recent success from Sam LaPorta and Zach Ertz proves this matchup can be exploited. That makes Fannin Jr a strong Week 3 option.
Play: TE Zach Ertz Vs Las Vegas Raiders
- Jayden Daniels is questionable with a knee injury, but I still like Zach Ertz even if Marcus Mariota gets the start. He will be heavily relied on, especially on third down.
- Ertz has opened the season red-hot, landing inside the top-10 at tight end in each of the first two weeks. With a touchdown in both games, his role in the offense looks secure, and his fantasy value is quietly climbing quickly.
Fade: TE Jake Ferguson @ Chicago Bears
- Ferguson has seen plenty of volume with 18 targets in two games and nine catches last week, but he hasn’t recorded a reception of 20 yards or more. This lack of explosive plays limits his fantasy ceiling, making him a fade against tougher matchups such as this week’s game against the Bears.
- Chicago’s defense has been tough on tight ends. Laporta had three catches for 26 yards, and Hockenson managed only 3 for 15 in Week 1.
Fade: TE TJ Hockenson Vs Cincinnati Bengals
- He may fare better with Carson Wentz under center or maybe even worse. Either way, this matchup looks like doomsville for pass catchers on both sides with backup quarterbacks in play.
- The Vegas O/U total opened at 44.5, but as of this writing, it has already dropped to 42.5. I would not play Hockenson in this one until we see how Carson Wentz looks.
Fade: TE Evan Engram @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Remember all the hype around the so-called Joker role? Engram has been a disappointment, to put it mildly, and I don’t see that changing in a division game against the Chargers this week.
- The Chargers held Brock Bowers to five catches for 38 yards on Monday night. He came in a bit banged up but still saw eight targets.
- In the opener, LAC held Travis Kelce to just two catches for 47 yards, though he did find the end zone. It’s not a good matchup for Evan Engram, who hasn’t scored since Week 8 of last season.
D/ST
Play: D/ST Seattle Seahawks Vs New Orleans Saints
- Rattler has struggled to push the ball downfield, ranking near the bottom in aDOT at just 7.0. Add a noisy road environment, and it’s hard to see him finding success in Week 3.
- The Seahawks have already picked off opposing quarterbacks four times, ranking second in the league. Add in four sacks from their front, and this defense has multiple ways to cause problems in Week 3.
Play: D/ST Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
- If we’re picking on Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward deserves attention, too. He hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in a game yet and has only one touchdown pass.
- The Colts’ pass defense is quietly top-5, allowing just 176 yards per game. Bo Nix threw three TDs last week but was held to 206 yards, showing the secondary can still make life difficult for quarterbacks.
- Cam Ward hasn’t shown the ability to move the ball consistently and will likely struggle again to find rhythm. Stream the Indianapolis defense, as Ward may not even reach 200 passing yards.
Play: D/ST Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs New York Jets
- Justin Fields is in concussion protocol and could miss this game. If he sits, 36-year-old Tyrod Taylor would start, an experienced quarterback who has had a solid career but is clearly in the twilight of his playing days.
- After allowing almost 300 yards to Michael Penix Jr, the Bucs defense bounced back by holding C.J. Stroud to 207 yards and limiting big plays from his receivers.
- The Buccaneers front should pressure Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor, with the Jets already allowing five sacks in two games. If available, scoop up the Bucs D/ST and start them with confidence.
Fade: D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
- Pittsburgh’s defense has been a big disappointment to start the year. They’ve managed two interceptions but only three sacks.
- Perhaps they can turn the corner in the sack department, as the Patriots’ offensive line has already allowed seven this season.
- I’m still fading the Steelers D as they’ve given up 63 points through two games.
Fade: D/ST Philadelphia Eagles Vs Los Angeles Rams
- I’m not excited about playing the Eagles defense against Stafford and the Rams. They’re a solid unit, but with only two sacks on the season, they haven’t been getting to the quarterback.
- Matthew Stafford comes to Philly red hot, averaging over 271 passing yards per game. There are better streaming options than the Eagles this week.
Fade: D/ST Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
- The Broncos were the consensus #1 fantasy defense to draft, but last week is a reminder why I always stream. Daniel Jones, aka Indiana Jones, torched this secondary for over 300 yards.
- Justin Herbert has looked the best he’s looked all season, averaging 280 passing yards while throwing five touchdowns and no interceptions.
- This is not the week to start the Broncos’ defense on the road against a high-powered offense in LA.
