2025 Plays & Fades for Week 4
Welcome to Plays & Fades for Week 4!
We’re closing in on the end of the first quarter of the fantasy season. Week 3 started slowly, with points tough to come by before action picked up late. Injuries hit key players, so stay aggressive on the waiver wire for sure. We have you covered for that as well, just by clicking here. Aidan breaks it all down and gives you his top adds for week 4, so make sure to check that out.
Let’s break down our Plays & Fades for Week 4 to help you secure a “W.”
*** Stats courtesy of the good folks over at PFF, Fantasy Points Data Suite, FantasyData.com, and FTN Fantasy***
Quarterbacks
Play: Carson Wentz @ Pittsburgh Steelers
• In his first start with his sixth team, Carson Wentz tossed 2 TDs and no interceptions against the Vikings. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell should have him set up for success again in a plus matchup across the pond in Dublin, Ireland.
• This is a solid streaming spot. The Steelers allow just over 260 passing yards, and last week’s blowout limited his chances.
• This matchup should be closer, and with Jordan Addison back to pair with Justin Jefferson, Wentz has an extra weapon to throw to.
Play: Geno Smith Vs Chicago Bears
• Smith was dealin’ last week against the Commanders, throwing for 289 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions, finishing as the QB4.
• Through three games, Geno leads all QBs in air yards and draws a favorable matchup with the Bears, who rank 29th in PFF defensive grade.
• He ranks 3rd in aDOT, and faces a banged-up Bears secondary. Ride the hot hand.
Play: Matthew Stafford Vs Indianapolis Colts
• Stafford had a tough road game in Philly, going 19/33 for 196 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. The two touchdowns helped save his fantasy day.
• The Colts have been a strong defense, but this may be the best offense they’ve faced. Vegas opened at 48.5, and Stafford has weapons in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
• Stafford is airing it out through three games, ranking top 10 in air yards and seventh in deep passing percentage. Back at home against the Colts, he’s a strong bet for a multi-touchdown performance and could finish as a back-end QB1.
Fade: Baker Mayfield Vs Philadelphia Eagles
• Mayfield has finished as a QB1 in two of three weeks but faces a tough Eagles secondary. Mike Evans is expected to miss 3-4 weeks due to a hamstring injury, which could impact his passing options.
• The Vegas total has dropped to 43.5, pointing to a low-scoring game. Philly’s defensive front, led by Jalen Carter, makes running the ball really difficult. This matchup has all the makings of a defensive battle.
• Mayfield is averaging just 205 passing yards per game, and with Evans out, Emeka Egbuka will draw more defensive attention than usual. It’s hard to trust Sterling Shepard even coming off a good game against the Jets.
Fade: Brock Purdy Vs Jacksonville Jaguars
• Purdy may be rushing himself back with turf toe and a left shoulder AC joint sprain suffered in Week 1 against the Seahawks.
• He played well in Week 1, and the Jaguars are a decent matchup, but they do have seven interceptions as a team through three games. Just be careful starting Purdy first game back.
• One early hit on his shoulder or one wrong move with his foot and he could be done for the day. The risk of aggravation is high, and if either issue flares up, he may be forced to exit far earlier than fantasy managers would like.
Fade: Daniel Jones @ Los Angeles Rams
• Daniel Jones has been the hottest quarterback in the league, but the question is whether we really buy what he’s selling.
• He’s faced the Dolphins, Titans, and Broncos, who haven’t looked great defensively. The Rams are their most formidable defense yet, and he could get exposed on the road.
• Jones has been allergic to throwing into the end zone his entire career and ranks near the bottom in actual end zone attempts this year. Most of his touchdowns come in the open field; this likely won’t continue.
Running Backs
Play: Quinshon Judkins @ Detroit Lions
• If you haven’t started Judkins yet, now is the time. He had 94 yards on 18 carries with a touchdown against the Packers.
• He led the team with a 57.9% snap share and took every rushing attempt except for one which went to Dylan Sampson. He’s the clear lead back heading into Week 4. Must start!
• In his lone Browns start, he posted the 11th-most expected fantasy points. If you’re concerned about a potential blowout, there’s reason for optimism as Judkins ran 12 routes to Jerome Ford’s 11, showing he’ll be involved both on the ground and in the passing game.
Play: Cam Skattebo Vs Los Angeles Chargers
• Skattebo has impressed over the last two games, totaling 10 and 11 carries while averaging just over 52 yards per game at 5 yards per carry.
• Tyrone Tracy is expected to miss time. Devin Singletary is the other back, but Skattebo showed promise with six catches for 61 yards on eight targets.
• It’s a tough matchup, but the volume and opportunity will be there. Skattebo is a backend RB2 this week.
Play: Trey Benson Vs Seattle Seahawks
• With James Conner out for the season, it’s officially Trey Benson time. He averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 10 attempts for 42 yards against a tough 49ers defense.
• Benson ranks RB6 in explosive carries of 15+ yards through three games.
• With only Emari Demercado and Bam Knight behind him, Benson should see a heavy workload. If he scores, he could sneak into backend RB1 this week.
Fade: Bucky Irving Vs Philadelphia Eagles
• If you’re forced to start Bucky as your RB1 or RB2, it’s a brutal matchup. The Eagles’ run defense is top 10, allowing just 133.3 rushing yards per game.
• The Bucs have leaned on Rachaad White more in the red zone, where he sees a 39.1% snap share. Irving is still the lead back, but White could steal some touches inside the 20.
• Irving has played fine, but White’s matching him in explosive carries despite less volume.
Fade: Javonte Williams Vs Green Bay Packers
• Williams has been playing out of this world, but even with just 10 carries against the Bears, he finished just outside RB2 territory.
• No back has topped 100 yards against this stout Packers run defense. Judkins came close last week with 94 yards, but even that took a 38-yard run in the fourth quarter to get him there.
• Avoid starting Williams as your RB2 or flex this week. The Cowboys are likely to trail, and he’s unlikely to reach his usual 14 rushing attempts against this defense.
Fade: Travis Etienne @ San Francisco 49ers
• The Jacksonville backfield is a tug of war. Last week, rookies Lequint Allen and Brayshul Tuten combined for a 47% snap share while Etienne saw 54%.
• It’s even messier in the passing game. Allen ran 18 routes, Etienne 12, and Tuten six. This could be a chance to sell Etienne.
Wide Receivers
Play: Keenan Allen @ New York Giants
• Ole Reliable is getting it done, outperforming Ladd McConkey and leading the team in targets and catches.
• Herbert owns a 127.7 passer rating when throwing in Allen’s direction, a clear sign of their chemistry. As long as Herbert keeps thriving in this offense, Allen should remain his go-to option and continue to command a steady stream of targets.
• The Giants have allowed 272.7 passing yards per game. Allen will be a focal point and is a WR2 with upside. He’s a strong start.
Play: Jakobi Meyers Vs Chicago Bears
• I’m targeting the Bears banged-up secondary this week and doubling down on Geno Smith’s top target, Jakobi Meyers. I know Brock Bowers is there but it’s actually Meyers who’s been the one Geno’s leaned on so far.
• Meyers leads the team in targets, receptions, yards, and first-read share percentage, showing he’s the top option in the offense. He’s also second in yards per route run at 1.98, highlighting his efficiency when on the field.
• Even if he doesn’t find the end zone, he’s poised to be heavily involved in the passing game, making him especially valuable in PPR formats. This is a clear volume-based start play that can deliver solid production.
Play: Matthew Golden @ Dallas Cowboys
• Through the season, he’s been low-volume, ranking fifth in target share, fifth in receptions, and fourth in yards on the team.
• Before Week 3, Jordan Love came out and said they needed to get Matthew Golden more involved, and they did. Golden led the Packers with 52 receiving yards on four catches in a game they only scored 10 points.
• There’s a potential breakout coming, and this matchup with the Cowboys presents a “Golden” opportunity. We have seen the Cowboys give up 30+ points to the Bears last week and the Giants in Week 2. He’s a flex start with WR2 upside.
Fade: Brian Thomas Jr. @ San Francisco 49ers
• I get that Brian Thomas Jr. is a tough sit, but through three games, he hasn’t finished higher than a WR3, and his only touchdown came on a Week 1 rushing score. His production hasn’t yet justified heavy fantasy reliance.
• He’s dealing with a wrist injury, which could explain his slow start. Even though he leads the team in targets and air yards, it hasn’t translated into fantasy points.
• The Niners have been tough on opposing wide receivers. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba has really gone off, and even then he totaled 125 yards while Sam Darnold threw for just 150 yards, which is absolutely wild on its own.
Fade: DK Metcalf Vs Minnesota Vikings
• Metcalf has scored in back-to-back weeks, but he’s totaled just 10 catches for 135 yards over three games. Production has been limited.
• He’s struggling to get open, with only a 9.6% win rate for separation. That makes it difficult for him to get involved consistently and caps his upside on any given play.
• The Vikings’ defense doesn’t bode well for improvement. PFF ranks them ninth overall, and the most yards they’ve allowed to a wide receiver this season is 68 to DJ Moore.
Fade: Chris Olave @ Buffalo Bills
• He leads the team with 35 targets, ranks first in receptions, and is second in yards, but it hasn’t translated into scoring.
• Even with 35 targets, 80% of them have been catchable, yet he still hasn’t produced. The volume and opportunity are there, but he’s failing to convert them into meaningful results.
• His average depth of target is just 8.8 yards, which limits his big-play upside and makes splash weeks a rare occurrence.
Tight Ends
Play: Zach Ertz @ Atlanta Falcons
• Jayden Daniels is questionable to play after a Week 2 knee injury. With Mariota under center last week, Ertz caught three balls for 38 yards, finishing as a low-end TE2.
• Small sample size, but dating back to Week 17 last season, Ertz went off against the Falcons with six catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns.
• Ertz ranks second on the team in receptions, third in receiving yards, and third in target share. With Daniels potentially returning, I’m all in on Zach Ertz facing the Falcons. However, if it turns out Mariota is under center, he becomes a clear sit.
Play: Dalton Kincaid Vs New Orleans Saints
• Kincaid has been a gem so far, finishing as the TE1 in the season opener and TE3 last week, showing he can deliver consistent top-tier production.
• Ranks second on the team in targets, catches, and yards, and leads in YPRR among players with at least five targets.
• Don’t worry about a blowout. He’ll be featured in the red zone and has already scored both of his touchdowns there.
Play: Brenton Strange @ San Francisco 49ers
• No touchdowns yet, but Strange has 16 targets. He’s tied for second in team target percentage, first in receptions, and leads the team in yards.
• The 49ers defense has been vulnerable to tight ends this season. McBride scored in Week 2, and Juwan Johnson caught five passes for 49 yards and a touchdown. Start Strange.
Fade: Sam Laporta Vs Cleveland Browns
• The Browns have been stingy against tight ends all season. Even with targets, this matchup makes it hard to trust LaPorta for big production.
• They limited Tucker Kraft to just three catches for 29 yards last week. With Goff spreading the ball around, LaPorta is unlikely to see significant volume.
• LaPorta ranks third on the team in target share, receptions, and yards. Temper expectations.
Fade: David Njoku @ Detroit Lions
• Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. tend to cannibalize each other on the field. I’m leaning toward Fannin Jr., since he lines up more in the slot and has a clearer path to targets.
• Njoku ranks third on the team in yards, fourth in targets, and second in receptions. Fannin Jr. is trending upward.
Fade: Hunter Henry Vs Carolina Panthers
• Henry finished as the TE1 last week, making him feel like a must-start, right? Let’s not forget he was TE16 in Week 1 and TE45 in Week 2.
• Full disclosure: He leads the Pats in targets, receptions, and yards, but much of that came from one explosive game last week, where he had eight catches, 90 yards, and two touchdowns.
D/ST
Play: Houston Texans Vs Tennessee Titans
• Picking on Tennessee here. Cam Ward is averaging just 168.7 passing yards per game on 5.1 yards per attempt, ranking near the bottom.
• The offensive line hasn’t helped, ranked eighth worst in pass blocks by PFF and giving up the most sacks this season.
• With nine sacks through three games, Houston’s front should dominate, generating pressure and carving up the Titans like a steak knife through melted butter.
Play: Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants
• Jaxson Dart makes his first career NFL start in New York, a prime matchup to capitalize on his opportunity.
• The Chargers flaunt a top-5 overall defensive grade and rank third in coverage, ready to make life difficult for Dart in the passing game.
Play: Detroit Lions Vs Cleveland Browns
• A juicy matchup for Detroit against Joe Flacco, who’s thrown four interceptions. Expect plenty of passing opportunities as the Browns will likely be trailing.
• The Lions gave up 30 points to the Ravens but notched seven sacks. With the Browns graded fourth-worst in pass blocking, Detroit should get to Flacco.
Fade: Pittsburgh Steelers Vs Minnesota Vikings
• I’m not sold on the Steelers’ defense. Five sacks and four fumble recoveries last week aren’t repeatable.
• Even if this game puts them back on the map, they still allow nearly 400 yards per game. Consistency is a concern.
Fade: Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
• The Ravens’ defense got crushed by Detroit on Monday Night Football. A short week in Kansas City makes a bounce-back unlikely.
• Vegas has the total at 49.5. This game could be another offensive shootout. Stay clear.
• Baltimore’s already been in two shootouts, allowing 40 points to the Bills and 38 to the Lions. Can’t trust them.