The Blueprint of a QB1 In Fantasy Football: What the Last 10 Seasons Reveal

Welcome to The Blueprint of a QB1 In Fantasy Football: What the Last 10 Seasons Reveal!

There aren’t many guarantees in life, but there are a few in fantasy football. One of those things that happens every year is that someone finishes as the overall QB1. However, not everyone has a realistic chance of ending the year as the overall QB1 in fantasy. Every fantasy football manager wants to get the quarterback right, whether it’s drafting one early or hitting on one later in their fantasy football drafts.

To help narrow the player pool at the position, we are going to look at the overall QB1 from the last 10 seasons and identify the blueprint, I.E., the key traits of all/most of the top fantasy quarterbacks from the last decade. From age and rushing production to passing volume, offensive environment, and team success, we’ll identify the traits that consistently separate elite fantasy quarterbacks from the rest of the pack and, in turn, separate you from the rest of your leaguemates in pursuit of a title.

First and foremost, let’s take a look at the top-scoring quarterbacks (by total fantasy points) from the last decade, along with key numbers that are imperative for fantasy success.

Looking at the above table, here’s what we can deduce from the last 10 years:

• 90% of overall QB1 seasons came from a QB under 30 years of age (at the start of the season)
• 80% of overall QB1 seasons came from a QB that totaled 40+ touchdowns
• 60% of overall QB1 seasons came from a QB who rushed for 500+ yards
• 60% of overall QB1 seasons came from a QB who logged 100+ rushing attempts, including six of the last seven
• Patrick Mahomes’ QB1 season in 2018 was the last time a QB finished as the overall QB1 with fewer than four rushing touchdowns.

There’s another stat that probably goes without saying, and might be rather obvious, but it’s important to note. The last eight quarterbacks to finish as the overall QB1 came from offenses that ranked in the top five in team total offense (yards per game).

So, with all that in mind, if we are looking to history to identify the blueprint for a player to finish as the overall QB1, there are a few things that must be practically true.

🎯 Under 30 Years Old

🎯 Path to 40+ Total TDs

🎯 100+ Rushing Attempt Upside

🎯 Top-7 Total Offense

Any quarterback that doesn’t run will need a historic passing season to overtake a dual-threat guy at the top of the ranks. Just look at 2025. Despite Matthew Stafford throwing for 1,000 more yards and 21 more passing touchdowns than Josh Allen, his lack of production on the ground allowed Allen to usurp him as the QB1, thanks to the latter’s 579 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns (141.9 fantasy points).

In fact, despite a historic season, Stafford actually finished seventh in fantasy points per dropback, per PFF. Here are the names who finished ahead of him; see if you can spot the common theme: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Jaxson Dart, Drake Maye, and Jalen Hurts. An average of 84.3 rushing attempts among the six guys who rated higher than Stafford in the fantasy points-per-dropback department.

Based on the four criteria above, here are some notable players that don’t fit the blueprint for finishing as the overall QB1 this year:

• Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott are 30 or older
• Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow won’t run enough
• Tyler Shough, Bryce Young, Bo Nix, and C.J. Stroud likely won’t lead top 5-7 offenses

Yes, Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye fit the criteria, but they are two of the first four QBs off the board in many drafts. So, for the sake of this article and to help you prepare for fantasy football drafts, let’s not look at the top three to four options off the board to find the guys who could end the year as QB1.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

It was an injury-plagued 2025 for Jayden Daniels and the @Commanders, but the second-year QB still showed plenty to get UK fans excited ahead of a trip to London… 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/MhNndg4U63

— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) March 9, 2026

Daniels meets all the criteria here, aside from the fact that I’m unsure whether Washington can be one of the top five offenses in football. On top of having a first-time play caller serving as the team’s Offensive Coordinator (David Blough), is there enough offensive weaponry for Daniels? Sure, he has a proven commodity in Terry McLaurin, but then it’s former first-rounder Treylon Burks, third-round rookie Antonio Williams, and Tennessee castoff Chig Okonkwo. Is that enough for Daniels? It could be, sure, but not exactly the most comforting situation heading into the season.

Injuries ravaged his 2025 season, but when he did play, he threw only 8 passing touchdowns in 7 games, and his completion rate was 60.6%. Back in 2024, his rookie season, he completed 69 percent of his passes. He was running at a solid clip last season, and in his rookie campaign he crossed the all-important 100-carry threshold and found the end zone six times on the ground.

Per PFF, his 0.59 fantasy points per dropback were sixth-best in the NFL in 2024, which would have tied Jalen Hurts’ mark last season and slotted in just behind Drake Maye’s 0.60.

✅ Under 30 years old

✅ Path to 40+ Total TDs

✅ 100+ rushing attempts upside

❓Top 5-7 offense

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams made the throw of the year 4 different times 🎯 pic.twitter.com/vYtpbqy1M1

— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2026

Williams ended the 2025 season as the QB6, posting 3,942 passing yards, 27 passing TDs, and 388 yards on 77 carries with three scores on the ground. He was one of just six quarterbacks to finish the season with 20 or more red-zone carries, and those carries in the red zone and around the goal line are imperative for year-to-year touchdown stability. Ben Johnson did a great job with the offense last year, and despite the absence of DJ Moore in 2026, there’s plenty of weaponry for Williams, highlighted by Luther Burden and Colston Loveland as they head into their second seasons.

The Bears posted the sixth-most yards per game last season, and Williams is an exciting young talent. Over the last nine games of the regular season, his full-season pace was about 70 carries, and his playoff pace comes out to 76.5 carries. That’s a big jump to get to the important 100-carry threshold, but the athleticism is there, and Johnson is not afraid to use everything at his disposal.

The interesting case with Williams is whether or not he can be elite in any particular category. Can he get to 4,300 passing yards in a season for the first time in his career? Can he get to 40+ total touchdowns in a season for the first time in his career? Can he eclipse 500 rushing yards in a season for the first time in his career? Can he score four rushing touchdowns in a season for the first time in his career? 

I love the upside with Williams, and he’s going off the board relative to other notable QBs who could finish as QB1s, so he’s not overly expensive, all things considered. He’s under 30. I trust Ben Johnson to lead a statistically impressive offense, but it’s a pretty big jump for Williams to reach 40+ total touchdowns and 100 carries.

✅ Under 30 years old

✅ Top 5-7 offense

❓ Path to 40+ Total TDs

❓ 100+ rushing attempts upside

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Sheldon legend, Justin Herbert pic.twitter.com/l9vaIU39a1

— Dad's Thoughts (@DadsThoughts1) July 7, 2026

Interestingly enough, of all the quarterbacks on this list, Herbert might be the one that checks the boxes the best! He’s entering his 28-year-old season and coming off a strong 2025 season in which he threw for 3,727 yards, ran for 498 yards, and totaled 28 touchdowns, clocking in as the QB10 on the year. Due to an injury-plagued offensive line, Herbert was sacked more than ever last season and thus logged a career-high 83 carries, 498 yards, and 31.1 yards per game.

Mike McDaniel is the new playcaller for the Chargers in 2026, and keep in mind that McDaniel led Tua Tagovailoa to a 4,600+ yard passing season in 2023, and routinely was a 65+ percent completion rate guy. Herbert is a far better arm talent, and overall talent, than Tagovailoa, and having a mobile QB is something that McDaniel should be salivating over. Don’t get me wrong, McDaniel won’t run Herbert like the Lamar Jacksons and Josh Allens of the world, but it opens up a new wrinkle for McDaniel, and I bet he exploits it.

If McDaniel wants to use the quick game, that should be fine with Herbert, as he has a strong separator in Ladd McConkey. In 2025, he posted a 76.3% completion percentage and a 95.8 passer rating on throws within 10 yards, per PFF. He was elite in the intermediate game, posting an 89.3 passing grade, per PFF.

In terms of the boxes we are looking to check, the only question mark is whether Herbert gets to 100 carries. He likely slots in around 75-ish if I had to guess, but if he can steal a few touchdowns, he might be able to make do with 75-ish rushing attempts.

All in all, it should be no surprise that Herbert is on this list, as he seems to be a trendy selection under offensive guru Mike McDaniel.

✅ Under 30 years old

✅ Path to 40+ Total TDs

✅ Top 5-7 offense

❓100+ rushing attempts upside

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

Jaxson Dart down the seam to Greg Dulcich for a TD!

Watch on @NFLNetwork
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/oyim36gi3b

— NFL (@NFL) August 17, 2025

Outside the top 10 QBs by ADP, Dart likely has the strongest case to contend for overall QB1. He logged the fourth-most rushing attempts amongst all quarterbacks last season, and he did so in just 14 games; if you really dive into it, he was a gadget player in two of those games. Remove those two carries from two games, and we get 84 carries in 12 games, which comes out to 7 attempts per game. Over 17 games, that comes to 119 carries. Boom!

His 0.60 fantasy points per dropback in 2025 was tied with Brock Purdy for the third-best mark in the NFL last season, per PFF, trailing only Josh Allen (0.68) and Lamar Jackson (0.61). That mark was likely inflated by recording 9 rushing touchdowns on just 86 carries, but he did handle 22 red-zone carries across 14 games, which is an elite mark and should help maintain year-to-year touchdown production.

There’s no question Dart will rack up fantasy production with his legs, but ultimately, to be the QB1 overall, he’ll need to avoid injury in year two and improve through the air. A 15:5 TD/INT ratio isn’t bad, but over 14 games it’s not ideal, and he barely averaged 160 passing yards per game. Using his passing yards-per-game average from last season, that comes to just 2,758 yards over a full 17-game season. That would be the lowest from a QB1 in quite some time, with the lowest in recent years being Lamar Jackson’s 3,127 passing yards in 2019.

To Jackson’s credit, he ran for 1,206 yards and seven touchdowns that season, so if Dart doesn’t improve through the air, it will take a generational season on the ground for him to have a fighter’s chance at being the top dog.

Matt Nagy will call plays, and past history hasn’t been the most gracious for him, but assuming Malik Nabers is healthy early on, it’s not a bad supporting cast for Dart, as the team brought in Isaiah Likely, Calvin Austin, Odell Beckham Jr., and Darnell Mooney in the offseason, as well as drafting rookie Malachi Fields.

✅ Under 30 years old

✅ 100+ rushing attempts upside

❓Path to 40+ Total TDs

❓Top 5-7 offense

Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings

Kyler. Murray. Wow.

CARvsAZ on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/DykwefAuk8

— NFL (@NFL) September 14, 2025

Here’s another trendy pick for people who are planning to wait on quarterbacks in their fantasy football drafts this season. Murray will be the latest attendee to the Kevin O’Connell rehabilitation program, and Murray might be the “toolsiest” guy O’Connell has gotten to work with in recent years. In Sam Darnold’s lone year with O’Connell, he posted then-career bests in completion rate (66.2%), passing yards (4,319), passing touchdowns (35), and rushing attempts (67).

Unlike Darnold, Murray has had prolonged success at the NFL level prior to linking up with O’Connell, and Murray has finished as a top 10 fantasy QB in four seasons (2019, 2020, 2021, and 2024). Interestingly enough, despite being known as a dual-threat guy, Murray has only one season with 100+ rushing attempts. While injuries have hurt him in past seasons, his last full 17-game season saw him total 78 attempts (2024). His average of five rushing attempts per game over the last three seasons puts him at 85 over a full season, and, as O’Connell did with Darnold, I expect him to maximize what Murray has to offer.

Despite being pretty productive on the ground, there are legitimate questions about whether Murray has a path to 40+ touchdowns, unless you are firmly in the camp that O’Connell will sprinkle his magic and make it happen. Murray has never thrown for more than 27 touchdown passes in a season, and his best season saw him total 37 touchdowns (2020). So, I guess we can say the opportunity is there, but it’s hard to ignore Murray’s 37 passing touchdowns and 3.8% touchdown rate over his last 30 games.

Stability at the QB position in 2026 should put Minnesota in the upper half of offenses again, but can they get to the top 5-7? Will Murray be rejuvenated away from Arizona? Can O’Connell get something closer to the 2019-2021 Kyler Murray than the 2022-2025 Kyler Murray?

These are the questions fantasy managers must ask themselves, but at Murray’s price point, it’s hard to ignore the upside when he checks numerous boxes for the QB1 blueprint. Of course, this is all under the assumption that he wins and holds onto the starting gig.

✅ Under 30 years old

✅ Path to 40+ Total TDs

✅ 100+ rushing attempts upside

❓Top 5-7 offense

At the end of the day, only one guy can finish as the overall QB1, but history shows that only a few players have a real shot at hoisting the crown. Consider this when you head into your fantasy football drafts, as it can help you gain an edge over the rest of your league.

Let me know what you think about my breakdown of The Blueprint of a QB1 in Fantasy Football: What the Last 10 Seasons Reveal. Stay tuned, as next time I’ll discuss my analysis of The Blueprint of a Fantasy Football RB1.

To see how our analysts rank these and other QBs for the upcoming season, click here!